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📰 Israel launches West Bank offensive

📰 Israel launches West Bank offensive

and Kosovo sparks U.S. concern

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 01, 2024

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In a turbulent week, the Middle East witnessed significant escalations as Israel launched heavy airstrikes on Lebanon, marking the most intense exchange with Hizbollah since October. Simultaneously, the IDF initiated its largest military operation in the West Bank since the second intifada.

In the Sahel, violence claimed numerous civilian lives in both Mali and Burkina Faso. Meanwhile, tensions are rising in the Horn of Africa with the arrival of Egyptian troops in Somalia.

On the diplomatic front, BRICS members China and Brazil have drafted peace terms for the Ukraine-Russia conflict, seeking broader international support and endorsement.

Let’s get into it ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇺🇸 U.S. and Iraqi armed forces target Islamic State militants in al-Anbar: A joint U.S.-Iraqi raid in Iraq's western desert on Thursday targeted suspected Islamic State militants, killing at least 15 people and injuring seven American soldiers, officials confirmed on Saturday. The U.S. Central Command stated the militants were armed with weapons, grenades, and explosive belts during the operation in the Anbar desert. The raid aimed to disrupt ISIS leadership and their ability to conduct attacks against Iraqi civilians, U.S. citizens, and regional allies. Iraqi forces reported that airstrikes preceded the raid, destroying ISIS hideouts and logistical support. Key ISIS leaders were among the dead, though not identified. A U.S. defence official noted that some American troops were injured, including two from falls, but all are in stable condition. The U.S. only acknowledged its role in the raid two days later, following Iraq's initial announcement, which did not mention American involvement. This comes amid ongoing debates in Iraq over the presence of U.S. troops.

2️⃣ 🇽🇰 🇷🇸 🇺🇸 Kosovo closes Serbia offices, sparks U.S. response: Kosovo authorities on Friday shut down five institutions operating with the ethnic Serb minority in the north, a move swiftly criticised by the United States. Elbert Krasniqi, Kosovo’s minister of local administration, announced the closures, stating that these so-called parallel institutions violated Kosovo’s constitution and laws. The U.S. embassy in Kosovo expressed "concern and disappointment" over what it described as uncoordinated actions, warning that they negatively impact the ethnic Serb community and other minorities in Kosovo. Tensions remain high as Serbia, which does not recognize Kosovo's 2008 declaration of independence, continues to support the Serb minority in the region.

3️⃣ 🇧🇫 Al-Qaeda-linked group commits massacre in central Burkina Faso: At least 100 villagers and soldiers were killed in one of Burkina Faso's deadliest attacks this year by al-Qaeda-linked militants. The assault took place in the Barsalogho commune, 80 kilometres from the capital, where fighters from the JNIM group overran security outposts, opening fire on villagers and soldiers. Al-Qaeda claimed control of the area, a key point in resisting jihadi advances toward the capital, Ouagadougou. Nearly half of Burkina Faso is now outside government control, with escalating attacks leading to thousands of deaths and over 2 million displaced. Despite new security partnerships, the ruling junta has struggled to curb the violence. Civilians in Barsalogho were digging trenches to fortify against jihadi threats when the attack occurred.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Kursk offensive reveals Russia’s shrinking role in Central Asia: Ukraine’s unexpected incursion into Russia’s Kursk region on August 6 has exposed weaknesses in Russia’s power and further isolated Moscow. The silence of Russia’s allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)—Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—has highlighted the bloc’s ineffectiveness, undermining its credibility. The CSTO, created to counter external threats, has failed to respond, revealing itself as largely symbolic. Previous issues, such as Belarus’s criticism over inaction during Kyrgyzstan’s 2010 crisis and Uzbekistan’s exits, further expose the alliance’s fragility. This inaction has deepened Russia’s isolation, with even Belarusian President Lukashenko calling for an end to the war. Meanwhile, Central Asian countries are showing signs of greater regional cooperation, providing an opportunity for Western engagement to challenge Russian influence.

5️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israel launches heavy airstrikes on Lebanon in the most intense exchange since October: On monday, Israel conducted extensive airstrikes across Lebanon overnight, described as 'preemptive measures' against Hizbollah's long-anticipated retaliation for the assassination of senior commander Fuad Shukr, in Beirut last month. Lebanese residents reported a "night of horror," with shells causing fires and extensive damage, though the number of casualties is still unclear. Hizbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah noted the delay in retaliation was to allow time for Gaza ceasefire talks, which were ultimately unsuccessful. Hizbollah launched several hundred rockets and drones at Israel, targeting the Gilot Mossad base north of Tel Aviv while avoiding civilian areas, while Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that all incoming rockets and drones were intercepted by air defences. Since October, the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel—triggered by the Gaza war—has heightened fears of regional escalation involving Iran and the U.S. Hezbollah's recent attack seems designed to elicit a controlled Israeli response. Nasrallah expressed satisfaction with the strike's effect on Israeli military and intelligence targets and accused the Israeli government of concealing its own casualties.

Major Story

🇮🇱🇵🇸 ISRAEL LAUNCHES LARGEST WEST BANK OFFENSIVE SINCE 2002

Background

At least 10 Palestinians have been killed in an extensive Israeli military operation across the northern occupied West Bank, particularly targeting the governorates of Tulkarem, Jenin, and Tubas.

Israeli assaults in the West Bank, which have been nearly daily since 2022, began before the current far-right government. These operations target Palestinian cities, refugee camps, and villages, causing hundreds of Palestinian deaths. Since 2022, about 1,000 Palestinians have been killed due to Israeli military raids and settler violence.

These actions reflect Israel’s policy of using force to manage the West Bank, occupied since 1967, rather than pursuing a Palestinian state. The aim is to prevent Palestinian resistance groups from gaining significant power. Unlike Gaza, armed groups in the West Bank are less equipped, partly due to Israeli security cooperation with the Palestinian Authority (PA), which has diminished its popularity among Palestinians.

Illegal Israeli settlers frequently harass and attack Palestinians, especially in rural areas, sometimes driving them off their land. The intensity and frequency of both military and settler attacks have increased since October 7, aligning with the escalation of Israel’s conflict with Gaza.

Judea and Samaria

Israeli media, citing military sources, expect the West Bank assault to last several days, likely increasing the death toll given the dense civilian population in the targeted areas.

Israel has described this operation as the largest in the West Bank since 2002, during the second Intifada, which drew international criticism for its heavy-handed approach to mostly non-violent protests and stone-throwing. By 2005, the conflict had resulted in 4,793 Palestinian deaths and around 1,000 Israeli casualties.

Israeli soldiers are permanently stationed across the West Bank, where illegal Israeli settlements and roads reserved for Israelis further fragment the territory, diminishing the likelihood of a Palestinian state. The International Court of Justice recently deemed Israel’s continued presence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem as “unlawful.”

Despite security justifications, Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders have rejected a two-state solution, promoted settlement expansion, and underscored the significance of the territory, referred to as "Judea and Samaria," to Israel.

The perceived ‘Iranian Threat’

Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg suggests that the operation is officially attributed to the perceived threat from Iran, which is accused of supplying arms and support to armed groups in the West Bank. However, Goldberg argues that the underlying motivations vary: for Finance Minister Smotrich, it may be about pushing for annexation; for military leaders, it's about salvaging credibility after setbacks in Gaza and Lebanon. But for Prime Minister Netanyahu and many Jewish Israelis, Goldberg believes the operation reflects a broader sense of denial and desperation, redirecting focus to the West Bank as a necessary response to internal pressures.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇹🇴 🇹🇻 UN Secretary General launches ‘Global SOS’ at Pacific Islands summit, referring to rising sea levels: he Pacific Islands, sparsely populated and with minimal heavy industry, contribute less than 0.02% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions. However, these volcanic islands and low-lying coral atolls are at the greatest risk from rising sea levels. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has tracked tide gauges on Pacific beaches since the 1990s. A recent WMO report reveals that sea levels in some Pacific regions have risen by about 15 centimetres over the past 30 years. As climate change is now defined by the UN Security Council as a security issue, Tuvalu faces the threat of being submerged within three decades. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasised in the South-West Pacific climate report's foreword that "populations, economies, and ecosystems throughout the Southwest Pacific region are strongly affected by the cascading effects" of climate change.

2️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇺🇳 Migrant ship sinks off Yemen’s coast, IOM highlights underfunding of global refugee crisis response: The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported on Sunday that an irregular migrant boat capsized off the coast of Taiz province in southern Yemen earlier this week. The boat, which departed from Djibouti, was carrying 25 Ethiopian and Yemeni migrants when it sank on Tuesday. The IOM, a United Nations agency, confirmed that 13 people have been confirmed dead, including 11 men and two women. Search efforts are ongoing to locate the remaining missing migrants, along with the Yemeni captain and his assistant. The cause of the sinking is still under investigation. Since 2014, the IOM’s Missing Migrants Project has documented 2,082 deaths and disappearances along the Eastern Corridor, with 693 attributed to drowning. Despite the alarming death toll, the response to this crisis remains underfunded.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇧🇷 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 China, Brazil draft Ukraine-Russia peace plan: China has urged more countries to support its peace plan for Ukraine, following diplomatic efforts with Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa. Envoy Li Hui described these nations as key representatives of the Global South and "important forces in promoting world peace," noting their alignment with China on seeking a political resolution through dialogue. Earlier this year, China and Brazil proposed a joint peace plan advocating for a peace conference involving both Ukraine and Russia and opposing further battlefield escalation. Notably, China and Russia did not participate in a June peace summit in Switzerland, with Russia excluded and China opting not to attend.

4️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 🇪🇬 Ethiopia’s MFA issues concern over deployment of Egyptian troops in Somalia: The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a press statement regarding the deployment of Egyptian troops, which are reportedly set to replace the outgoing, predominantly Ethiopian, African Union Transition Mission in Somalia. The statement noted that while the AU and UN are preparing for this transition, the region is entering "uncharted waters." It expressed concern over what Ethiopia sees as provocations, stating that the country is expected to ignore hostile actions that undermine the sacrifices of its defence forces. Ethiopia further emphasised that it "cannot stand idle while other actors [referring to Egypt and Somalia] take measures to destabilise the region." Analysts interpret Egypt's troop deployment as a strong response to perceived threats from Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project and a move to support Somalia’s efforts to counter the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding between Addis Ababa and Hargeisa, which seeks to trade international recognition of Somaliland for Ethiopian access to a seaport.

5️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇺🇳 Taliban reject UN critique of new morality laws: Taliban leaders in Afghanistan expressed outrage Monday over U.N.-led objections to their new vice and virtue laws, which mandate that women remain silent in public and cover their faces. Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesperson for the Taliban government, which remains unrecognised internationally, responded by urging critics to "educate themselves about Islamic laws and respect Islamic values." He added, "It is insulting to our Islamic Sharia [law] when they object due to a lack of knowledge and understanding." Mujahid's remarks on social media platform X followed the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan's (UNAMA) condemnation of the morality law as a "distressing vision" for the country's future.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇲🇱 21 civilians killed in northern Mali drone attack: Armed groups linked to Tuareg movements condemned an attack in Tin Zaoutine, Mali, where a coalition reported the death of 21 people, including children, due to Malian army drone strikes. The strikes, conducted near the Algerian border, also resulted in several injuries, with victims receiving treatment in Tin Zaoutine, Algeria. The Tuareg—or Azawadi—coalition, known as the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the Azawadi People, accused the Malian military council and Russian Wagner Group mercenaries of conducting the attacks from Burkina Faso and alleged that the Malian government is pursuing an ethnic cleansing agenda.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇮🇱🇵🇸 ICC Prosecutor asserts the court’s power to issue warrants for Israeli leaders linked to Gaza war crimes: The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, has urgently sought arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict, asserting the court’s jurisdiction. Khan has called for prompt action on the warrants he filed in May for Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and three Hamas leaders, two of whom are now deceased. He rejected objections related to the Oslo Accords and Israel's internal investigations, stressing that delays undermine victims' rights. This development follows unsuccessful ceasefire talks in Cairo, where additional Israeli demands led to a rejection by Hamas.