Geopolitics Weekly
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🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel hints at Lebanon invasion

🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel hints at Lebanon invasion

and Dagestan rocked by attacks

Billy Robinson
June 30, 2024

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Hello and welcome back,

In another turbulent week in geopolitics, conflict zones in Myanmar and Sudan highlight severe humanitarian concerns and economic crises. Bolivia grapples with the aftermath of a failed coup, while rising tensions in East Asia between China and the Philippines, and North and South Korea, raise alarms.

In Kenya, President William Ruto reversed his controversial tax increase legislation after protests claimed over 20 lives.

Read updates from these regions—and more—below, with this week’s spotlight on the growing threat of war between Israel and the Lebanon-based group Hizbollah.

Let’s get into it ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇰🇪 President Ruto scraps tax increase legislation after violent protests: Kenyan President William Ruto withdrew a contentious tax increase bill following violent protests across the country after its parliamentary approval. The decision came after clashes between police and protesters resulted in at least 23 deaths and numerous injuries. Ruto, addressing the nation, acknowledged the public's strong opposition to the 2024 finance bill and announced its withdrawal. He framed the move as a response to the people's demands, emphasising his commitment to living within the country's means. To further ease tensions, Ruto proposed a dialogue involving youth, civil society, religious organisations, and professional bodies, and called for austerity measures to reduce government spending.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 Ursula von der Leyen secures a second term as EU President: Von der Leyen, the first woman to lead the EU executive, is praised for her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and European conflicts. Despite opposition from Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a recent deal among major EU parties solidified von der Leyen's position. Estonia’s Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, will be the EU's top diplomat, and former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa will head the European Council. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed satisfaction with the leadership appointments and approved defence plans.

3️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar's economy and humanitarian conditions at breaking point amidst protracted conflict: The 2021 military coup in Myanmar ignited a civil war that has devastated the economy. Myanmar’s GDP fell by 17.9% after the coup and only saw a modest recovery with 3% growth last year. This year, the economy is projected to grow by just 1%, suggesting a long road to pre-coup levels. The nation faces a collapsing currency, declining exports, rising unemployment, and a severe humanitarian crisis, with three million displaced. Thousands, including opposition members and activists, are imprisoned. Nearly half the population lives below the poverty line, and 18 million require humanitarian aid. International sanctions, economic mismanagement, and prioritisation of military spending over public needs have further crippled Myanmar, slashing public health and education funding by nearly half.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇷🇺 🇦🇪 Sudan increasingly falling victim to foreign interests: Global powers converge Darfur 24 reports that a shipment of guided aircraft ammunition from Russia has arrived for General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which are fighting General Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemedti’s' Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This follows a visit by Sudan's Sovereignty Council deputy chairman to Russia, where military agreements were brokered, including Russia's interest in establishing a military base on the Red Sea and securing gold mining privileges. Meanwhile, Hemedti's RSF receives arms and support from Abu Dhabi, which aims to control Darfuri resources and counter Iran's influence. The UAE's interventions face opposition from local activists and media. In Sudan, the UAE's support for the RSF has led to accusations of looting, ethnic cleansing, and telecommunications disruptions, amid reports of a man-made famine that threatens millions of Sudanese lives.

5️⃣ 🇧🇴 Former senior military officers arrested over failed coup: Seventeen individuals, including the former heads of Bolivia's army and navy, have been arrested for their alleged roles in a failed coup attempt to overthrow President Luis Arce. Bolivia’s Minister of Government, Eduardo Del Castillo, announced the arrests and accused former army chief Gen. Juan José Zúñiga Macías and former navy head R Adm. Juan Arnez Salvador of leading the plot to destabilise the democratically elected government. Del Castillo stated that the conspirators, who had been plotting for at least three weeks, face charges that could result in 15 to 30 years of imprisonment. The coup attempt culminated on Wednesday when security forces regained control of Plaza Murillo and stormed the government palace. Before his arrest, Zúñiga claimed his goal was to establish "a true democracy."

Major Story

🇮🇱🇱🇧 ISRAEL HINTS AT AN INVASION OF LEBANON

Last week, Israel’s defence minister travelled to Washington for crucial discussions with senior Biden administration officials concerning the ongoing conflicts involving Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah in Lebanon. Yoav Gallant, accompanied by the Israel Defense Forces’ deputy chief of staff, is scheduled to meet with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Joe Biden’s special envoy, Amos Hochstein.

Gallant’s visit coincided with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assertion that there has been a significant reduction in arms deliveries from the Biden administration in recent months—a claim that has perturbed US officials.

Israeli officials have connected their military operations in Rafah, southern Gaza—targeting what they claim are the final battalions of Hamas—with potential strategic pivot towards the Lebanese border. Escalating exchanges of fire with Hizbollah have heightened concerns about broader conflict in the region.

Amid fears of broader conflict, Hizbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah reiterated threats of widespread strikes across Israel. In a recent video, the Lebanese group displayed Israeli positions and coordinates, echoing Nasrallah’s pledge to fight without constraints if Lebanon faces war.

In a speech on Sunday, Netanyahu announced plans to deploy additional troops to Israel’s northern border to confront Hizbollah. These remarks risk exacerbating tensions between Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese group, amid escalating prospects of conflict. Netanyahu also indicated that the ongoing conflict in Gaza shows no signs of immediate resolution. "We will be able to move some of our troops northward, primarily for defensive purposes," he told Israel's Channel 14, before emphasising the goal of facilitating the return of tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to their homes.

Hizbollah has unequivocally stated its commitment to continue fighting Israel until a ceasefire is achieved in Gaza. Last week, Nasrallah cautioned Israel against initiating a war, citing Hizbollah's enhanced weaponry and intelligence capabilities, which could potentially target strategic positions deeper within Israel.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli Defence Forces transfer power in the West Bank to far-right politicians: The Israeli military has discreetly transferred substantial legal authority in the occupied West Bank to pro-settler civil servants under far-right minister Bezalel Smotrich. An order posted by the IDF shifts responsibility for numerous bylaws at the Civil Administration from the military to officials led by Smotrich at the defence ministry. Smotrich and his allies view control of the Civil Administration as a step towards extending Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank, aiming for direct control by the central government. This move diminishes legal checks on settlement expansion and development, aligning with Israeli politicians' long-standing aim to annex the West Bank—home to millions of Palestinians—which was captured by Israel in 1967. Israeli human rights lawyer Michael Sfard commented, “This order clarifies any doubts about annexation, transferring significant administrative power from the military to Israeli civilians in government.”

2️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇰🇵 South Korea report North Korean hypersonic missile launch: South Korea reported that North Korea may have launched a hypersonic missile towards its east coast, originating from Pyongyang on Wednesday morning. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff indicated the missile appeared to fail and landed in the sea without causing damage. Initially, it was believed to be a ballistic missile. Japan's defence ministry stated the missile reached an altitude of about 100 km (62 miles) and covered a range of over 200 km (124 miles) before falling outside Japan's exclusive economic zone, an area where a country claims economic activity rights.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇵🇭 Affray between Chinese and Filipino vessels in Second Thomas Shoal: Chinese coast guard intercepted and seized Philippine vessels on a resupply mission in the South China Sea's Second Thomas Shoal. The incident resulted in one Filipino sailor injured and damaged vessels, leading the Philippine military to accuse China of piracy. China, however, blamed the Philippines for the confrontation and denied any misconduct by its coast guard. Crisis Group expert Georgi Engelbrecht warns that this encounter, the most serious this year, could spark skirmishes between the two nations. It also raises questions about potential U.S. involvement, as Washington reaffirmed its commitment to support Manila in case of an armed attack under the Mutual Defense Treaty.

4️⃣ 🇵🇱 🇨🇳 Poland’s President visits Beijing: Polish President Andrzej Duda met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday to discuss Ukraine, peace, and expanding bilateral trade. This visit brought the head of a NATO member state to China, which has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Duda expressed Poland's interest in closer commercial ties with China, particularly through Xi’s "Belt and Road Initiative," which aims to build transport connections and infrastructure between China, Europe, Southeast Asia, and other regions. This initiative addresses China's manufacturing overcapacity, seeks foreign markets, and aims to expand Beijing’s political and economic influence in response to the U.S.-led liberal international order.

5️⃣ 🇷🇺 Attacks against religious sites in Dagestan: Gunmen reportedly belonging to a terrorist organisation killed at least eight people—including six police officers—in coordinated attacks on a synagogue, an Orthodox church, and a police post in Dagestan, Russia. The attacks, which took place on Sunday evening in Derbent and Makhachkala, also left 12 people injured. In Derbent, which hosts an ancient Jewish community in the predominantly Muslim North Caucasus region, both the synagogue and church were targeted, with the synagogue set ablaze. The attack on the police post occurred in Makhachkala, Dagestan’s capital, 125 km away.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇳🇪 🇧🇯 🇨🇳 Niger-Benin disputes over China-backed pipeline: A Chinese-financed pipeline designed to turn Niger into an oil exporter is under threat due to internal security challenges and a diplomatic dispute with neighbouring Benin, stemming from last year's coup that ousted Niger's elected government. The 1,930-kilometre pipeline, stretching from Niger's Agadem oil field, constructed with Chinese support, to Benin's Cotonou port, aimed to increase Niger's oil output fivefold through a US$400 million agreement with China's state-owned petroleum company. Recent tensions with Benin led to the pipeline's closure, exacerbated by an attack from the local Patriotic Liberation Front rebel group, which damaged a section of the pipeline. The group has threatened more attacks unless Niger cancels its deal with China, worsening instability following President Mohamed Bazoum's coup and regional border closures.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇳🇱 Dutch Prime Minister to become NATO Secretary General: Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will succeed Jens Stoltenberg as NATO’s Sec-Gen in October. Backed by the U.S., UK, and other key NATO powers, Rutte was the leading candidate, with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis as his only competitor. Despite being a strong advocate for Ukraine, Rutte will be the fourth NATO chief from the Netherlands, prompting concerns from Central European leaders who believe NATO’s leadership should reflect its strategic shift eastward. Analysts contend that for Rutte to succeed, he must balance Western Europe’s historical leadership with the rising influence of Eastern members, ensuring unity as NATO supports Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration.

2️⃣ 🇲🇩 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 Moldova, Ukraine launches EU membership talks: Ukraine has officially begun membership talks with the European Union, a milestone President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has hailed as a dream come true for Ukrainians amidst their ongoing conflict with Russia. Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna will lead Ukraine’s delegation at an intergovernmental conference in Luxembourg, marking the start of aligning Ukraine's laws and standards with those of the 27-nation bloc. Later that day, Moldova, which applied to join the EU following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and received candidate status four months later, will also launch its accession process at a separate intergovernmental conference.