Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 Israel blocks UN aid

📰 Israel blocks UN aid

and North Korea in Russia

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 03, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, the UN held discussions on the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic, raising questions about the future of multilateral cooperation. Meanwhile, political instability in Bolivia and the intensifying conflict in Myanmar are causing growing concern.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 U.S. and Taiwan broker $2bn arms deal, Beijing vows ‘countermeasures’: China has pledged to take "countermeasures" against a $2 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, condemning the deal as a threat to its sovereignty. The Pentagon confirmed the sale, which includes advanced air defence systems like the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) used in Ukraine, pending Congressional approval. In response, China's foreign ministry expressed strong opposition and called on the U.S. to cease arming Taiwan to avoid destabilising the Taiwan Strait. The ministry warned that China would take all necessary actions to safeguard its territorial integrity. The U.S., bound by law to help Taiwan defend itself, emphasised that the deal supports regional stability and Taiwan's military modernization. Taiwan welcomed the sale, citing the proven effectiveness of NASAMS amid China’s ongoing military pressure. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to assert control.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 US diplomacy falters yet again in Lebanon ceasefire efforts: Beirut endured at least ten Israeli airstrikes overnight, resulting in casualties, as a new UN report accuses Israel of systematically dismantling Gaza’s healthcare system, citing deliberate attacks on medical personnel and facilities—actions deemed potential war crimes. US envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Thursday, marking a departure from the usual practice of following such meetings with a visit to Beirut, signalling stalled diplomacy. Netanyahu emphasised that any ceasefire deal must guarantee Israel’s security, permitting it to target Hezbollah as needed. This stance, viewed in Lebanon as a one-sided surrender, has been firmly rejected by Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. Consequently, diplomacy has faltered, and strikes have resumed in southern Beirut.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇰🇵 North Korean troops in Russian uniforms reportedly being deployed to Kursk: According to U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, North Korean troops, dressed in Russian uniforms and equipped with Russian gear, are reportedly moving to the Russian region of Kursk near Ukraine. Austin described this development as dangerous and destabilising. Speaking at a Pentagon press conference with South Korean Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun, Austin expressed concern over Pyongyang’s deployment of up to 11,000 troops to Russia, with some headed to the Kursk region, where Russian forces are struggling against Ukrainian advances. Austin warned that the likelihood of North Korean troops being used in combat was high, potentially escalating and prolonging the conflict in Ukraine. He also noted the risk of other nations becoming more directly involved. Minister Kim—while downplaying the risk of war on the Korean Peninsula—cautioned that Pyongyang could seek advanced technologies in exchange, including nuclear and missile capabilities.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇺🇳 Criminal networks exploiting Myanmar’s escalating crisis, says UN envoy: The UN special envoy for Myanmar, Julie Bishop, has warned of intensifying conflict, rampant criminal networks, and record levels of human suffering. In her first report to the U.N. General Assembly’s human rights committee since her appointment in April, Bishop urged Myanmar’s key players to move beyond a "zero-sum mentality." Myanmar’s military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s government in February 2021, crushing peaceful protests and sparking escalating violence and a humanitarian emergency. Over the past year, three major ethnic militias have expanded their control, leaving the military struggling to maintain order and forcing hundreds of thousands to flee. Currently, 3 million people are displaced, and 18.6 million require aid. Bishop noted extensive regional engagement efforts and emphasised the scale of Myanmar’s organised crime issues. She aligned with U.N. Secretary-General Guterres' call for a democratic transition amid mounting concerns of "forgotten crisis" status.

5️⃣ 🇧🇴 Rising unrest in Bolivia sees assassination attempt on former leader, Evo Morales: Former Bolivian leader Evo Morales has accused the government of his former ally, Luis Arce, of attempting to assassinate him following an early-morning ambush on Sunday that left his vehicle riddled with bullets. Morales shared a video on Facebook showing bullet holes in his car’s windshield, declaring, “Elite agents of the Bolivian State attempted to take my life today.” In response, Arce condemned political violence and called for a thorough investigation, with his deputy security minister promising to look into the incident. The ambush comes amid escalating tensions, as Morales' supporters have been blocking major highways for weeks in protest of his legal challenges, clashing with security forces. The Morales-aligned faction of the MAS party claimed the attack was orchestrated by heavily armed men in two vehicles near a military base. As Bolivia prepares for elections, the political landscape is increasingly fractious, with Morales seeking a return to power amid allegations against him regarding relationships with minors, which he denies.

Major Story

🇱🇧 🇮🇷 🇸🇾 🇮🇶 🇾🇪 The Axis of Resistance: Strategic Priorities and Military Tactics

Background

The Iran-led "Axis of Resistance"—an alliance of political and military groups across Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—has adapted its strategy amid Israel’s onslaught in Lebanon. Hizbollah—the central force in this coalition—has focused on rebuilding its command structure in Lebanon and Syria after Israel’s recent assassination of high-ranking figures, such as the revered Hassan Nasrallah.

Deterring Israeli Expansion in Lebanon

Hizbollah’s primary aim is to prevent a large-scale Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon. Such an invasion would not only threaten Hizbollah’s influence but could also embolden Israeli attacks on Iran’s allies in Syria, Iraq, and Iran itself, as Israel did on October 26. Through coordinated guerrilla operations carried out by its Radwan Force, Hizbollah aims to establish a robust deterrent, signalling that any Israeli advances will encounter significant resistance. This intent is underscored by Hizbollah's recent report of Israeli casualties, claiming the deaths of over 90 soldiers and the destruction of 42 Merkava tanks.

Preparing for Prolonged Conflict

Beyond short-term deterrence, Hizbollah is preparing for extended hostilities. Its strategy includes maintaining readiness for prolonged, asymmetric warfare along the Lebanese border and in urban areas, maximising Israel’s losses over time through a strategy of attrition. Their strategic victory through attritional warfare following Israel’s 2006 invasion reinforces this approach, as attritional conflict is precisely what Israel seeks to avoid, according to former Israeli Defence Forces General Itzhak Brik.

Pressuring the U.S. to Withdraw from Syria

Hizbollah, in conjunction with its allies in Hashd al-Shaabi—the collective term for all Iraqi constituents of the Axis of Resistance—also seeks to expel the U.S. from Syria, who maintain a military footprint in Syria's Deir ez-Zor region because of their vested oil interests. Their mutual objective to erode U.S. influence in the region aligns with broader geopolitical interests, as Syria serves as a vital conduit for materiel and economic resources between Iran and Lebanon.

Current Combat Operations

In response to Israeli strikes on its leadership, Hizbollah has escalated its operations, employing anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and drones to strike Israeli defences in northern Israel and Haifa. This demonstrates its capacity for high-precision, remote attacks that can bypass Israel’s Iron Dome. Continuous rocket barrages against Israeli positions reinforce Hizbollah’s indirect, long-range approach, minimising its own casualties while maximising impact. This adaptive strategy—honed through years of conflict—positions Hizbollah to engage Israel in a prolonged war of attrition.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli parliament votes to ban UN humanitarian lifeline for Palestinians: The Knesset voted 92-10 to ban the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)—which has operated since a 1967 agreement—prohibiting it from delivering services in Israel, and Palestinian Territories East Jerusalem, Gaza, and the West Bank. Israeli lawmakers also classified UNRWA as a terrorist group, restricting official interactions and leading to the expected closure of its East Jerusalem office. This move would block humanitarian aid access via Rafah and prevent cooperation with Israel’s military. More than 1.9 million Palestinians are displaced and the Gaza Strip faces widespread shortages of food, water and medicine. “It’s outrageous that a member state of the United Nations is working to dismantle a UN agency which also happens to be the largest responder in the humanitarian operation in Gaza,” Juliette Touma, spokesperson for UNRWA, said in a statement. UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini condemned the decision, warning it would worsen Palestinians’ suffering in Gaza. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the US State Department, along with multiple other states and multilateral blocs, expressed deep concern over the vote's humanitarian impact.

2️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇮🇳 Canada alleges India’s ‘campaign of violence and threats’ against Sikh separatists: The Canadian government has accused Amit Shah—India’s home affairs minister and a close political ally of Narendra Modi—of orchestrating plots to target and intimidate Sikh separatists in Canada. This allegation came to light during a parliamentary committee session where David Morrison, Canada’s deputy foreign affairs minister, confirmed that he disclosed Shah’s alleged role in a series of violent and threatening incidents against the Sikh diaspora, but did not elaborate on how Shah was linked to the investigation. India has previously dismissed Canada’s claims as baseless and politically motivated, while also accusing Canada of harbouring extremists. This diplomatic row follows accusations by senior Canadian police officials last month, who alleged that India’s diplomats were involved in illegal activities, including murder and intimidation, within Canada. The dispute has led to mutual expulsions of diplomats, plunging Canada-India relations to a historic low.

3️⃣ 🇬🇪 🇷🇺 Georgia election recount confirms ruling party victory, says electoral commission: Georgia’s officials announced that a partial recount confirmed the ruling Georgian Dream party’s victory in a contested election, despite opposition claims and a report from research firm HarrisX calling the electoral commission’s results “statistically impossible.” The pro-Western opposition reiterated its stance that the parliamentary election was “stolen,” refusing to accept the outcome, which has stirred political uncertainty in the Caucasus nation. President Salome Zourabichvili, at odds with the ruling party, called the election illegitimate, alleging Russian interference—claims Moscow denies. On Monday, large protests filled Tbilisi’s streets, and further demonstrations were planned. The election commission reported minimal vote changes after recounting about 12% of stations, while international observers and the EU called for an investigation into irregularities. Georgia’s interior ministry, however, rejected calls for a re-election, and prosecutors have opened 47 cases related to alleged voting violations.

4️⃣ 🇱🇧 Naim Qassem named as Hizbollah’s new secretary general: Naim Qassem has been appointed as Hizbollah’s new secretary-general, following the assassination of his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, by Israel on September 27. Qassem, previously Hizbollah's long-standing deputy since 1991, assumed the role after an announcement via the group’s Telegram channel. His connection to Hizbollah’s leadership traces back to Abbas al-Musawi’s tenure as secretary-general, who was killed by Israel in 1992. Born in Kfar Kila in South Lebanon—a region frequently targeted by Israeli attacks—Qassem has deep ties to Shia political activism and religious circles, having studied under the prominent Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah. Over the years, Qassem played key roles within Hizbollah, overseeing parts of its educational network and parliamentary activities, while serving on the influential Shura Council. The consensus amongst political analysts is that Qassem’s appointment is a signal of continuity for the organisation.

5️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇺🇳 Renewed violence in Eastern DR Congo, future of MONUSCO uncertain: The end of one of the deadliest, least understood conflicts—the war in eastern Congo—remains elusive, as does the departure of the large UN peacekeeping mission, MONUSCO. Congo’s mineral-rich east, vital to the global economy, is beset by dozens of armed groups—including Islamic State—affiliates, with instability displacing millions. Increasing frustration has led many Congolese to demand MONUSCO’s exit, though the international community warns of a dangerous security vacuum if it leaves. UN forces are now re-positioning to defend civilians, training Congolese soldiers to bridge the gap. Mineral wealth has worsened the crisis, with foreign interests fueling ongoing violence; Rwanda-backed rebels—the M23—are exploiting the situation, often obstructing the UN as they push for territorial control. The ongoing violence is further complicated by what the Economist’s Darren Davids describes as the international community’s reluctance to pressure Rwanda to halt the conflict, given its role as a dependable trading partner for the West amid intensifying competition for Congo’s mineral wealth.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇸🇸 South Sudan’s transitional period extended, threatening political violence: Leading South Sudanese academics and professionals have criticised the decision to extend South Sudan’s transitional period by two years, calling it an unconstitutional, unilateral move to avoid a legitimacy crisis. The extension, agreed upon by parties to the 2018 peace agreement, aimed to allow time to implement key provisions. However, civil society members and academics argue that this move undermines the mechanisms established by the agreement. Luka Biong Kuol, Director of the Institute of Peace, Development, and Security Studies at the University of Juba, emphasised that postponing the 2024 elections to December 2026 lacked legal grounding. He cited Article 8.4 of the peace agreement, which mandates a rigorous amendment process involving a two-thirds majority from relevant bodies, not just the Presidency. In his critique, analyst Jok Madut Jok accused the government of planning the extension for a year while pretending to pursue elections. He pointed to financial, legal, and logistical challenges as key barriers to holding elections.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 U.S. Presidential elections: On Friday, US presidential candidates campaigned in key Midwestern swing states, Michigan and Wisconsin, aiming to win over undecided voters. At a rally, Vice President Kamala Harris criticised former President Donald Trump for recent remarks implying that Liz Cheney, a former Congresswoman and vocal Trump critic, should face armed force and military tribunals. According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, Harris maintains a slim national lead of 1.3 points. In swing states, however, the competition is extremely tight. Harris leads by around one point in Michigan, holds a slight advantage in Wisconsin at 0.8 points, and trails Trump by 0.4 points in Nevada. Trump has small leads in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, all within the polls’ margins of error, making these states critical to the election's outcome. In North Carolina, once narrowly won by Trump in 2020, rising numbers of unaffiliated voters may ultimately sway the race. Political experts like Chris Cooper describe the state as balanced on a "razor's edge."