Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 Iran strikes Israel

📰 Iran strikes Israel

and Austria swings right

Ross Crabtree
October 07, 2024

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This week the global geopolitical landscape becomes more precarious.

Austria's right-wing Freedom Party secures an election victory, while oil prices jump due to fears of conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Israel has launched a ground invasion into southern Lebanon, warning civilians to evacuate as Hezbollah and Israeli forces clash.

More below ⤵️

Major Story

Iran's recent missile barrage on Israel marks a significant escalation in an already tense region. On Tuesday night, over 180 ballistic missiles were launched toward central and southern Israel, in what Israeli authorities described as nearly double the scale of a similar attack in April. Sirens blared across the country as the entire population was instructed to take cover, while Israeli air defenses, supported by U.S. forces, worked swiftly to intercept the majority of the missiles. Still, several missiles made it through, striking airbases and causing damage to civilian areas, although casualties remained limited.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility, framing the attack as retaliation for the death of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and recent Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Tehran’s missile assault is seen as part of its broader “Axis of Resistance” strategy, a network of armed groups across the region opposed to Israel and the U.S. The use of ballistic missiles, including Iran’s hypersonic Fattah missile, highlights the growing sophistication of its arsenal, though Israeli forces denied that any hypersonic missiles were involved.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed retaliation, asserting that Iran had "made a big mistake" and would face consequences. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant echoed this, warning that those attacking Israel would "pay a heavy price." With the U.S. reaffirming its support for Israel and regional actors closely watching developments, tensions between Iran and Israel are set to intensify, as military analysts speculate that critical Iranian infrastructure, including nuclear sites, could become targets in Israel’s potential counter-response.

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Other News

🇨🇳 China: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking at the UN General Assembly, warned against the expansion of the Ukraine war and urged all parties to de-escalate. While reiterating China's offer to mediate peace talks, he stressed that no party should provoke further conflict. Wang also called for an immediate ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict, advocating for a two-state solution and reaffirming China's support for Palestinian statehood.

🇹🇳 Tunisia: As Tunisia approaches its presidential election, concerns are mounting over the growing political role of the military under President Kais Saied. Once marginalized, the army's influence has expanded since Saied's 2021 power grab, with military figures even appointed to ministerial roles for the first time. While the military has supported Saied so far, tensions have emerged, especially around his authoritarian moves and upcoming election, raising fears of potential militarization of Tunisian politics.

🇼🇸 Samoa: A "highly probable" fuel spill is feared after New Zealand's navy ship, HMNZS Manawanui, grounded, caught fire, and sank off Samoa's coast. All 75 onboard were safely evacuated, but environmental assessments are underway. The ship, one of New Zealand's nine naval vessels, was surveying a reef when it ran aground, with New Zealand pledging to address any environmental damage.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇸🇴 Somalia: Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia are escalating due to a controversial maritime agreement Ethiopia signed with Somaliland, granting it access to a stretch of Red Sea coastline. Somalia views this as a violation of its sovereignty and has responded by expelling the Ethiopian ambassador. Despite mediation efforts, no resolution has been reached, and the UN is urging a diplomatic solution. Ethiopia denies Somalia's accusations, insisting the agreement is for mutual growth, not territorial expansion.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 Israel/Palestine: The one-year anniversary of Hamas' large-scale attack on Israel will likely prompt global protests, marking the escalation in the Israel-Palestine conflict.

2️⃣ 🇲🇿 Mozambique: General elections on October 9 are expected to see the governing Frelimo party retain power, with Daniel Chapo poised to become the new president, continuing political continuity.

3️⃣ 🌍 Global: The G7 Health Ministers’ meeting will be held in Ancona, Italy, from October 9-11, focusing on global health issues.

4️⃣ 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Legislative elections on October 13 will likely see a close contest between the Social Democrats, the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, and the governing Homeland Union-Christian Democrats.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners, and necessity has made us allies." — John F. Kennedy, 1961.