This week, opportunities for de-escalation emerge with ceasefire breakthroughs in Myanmar and Central Africa’s Great Lakes region, while U.S. peace envoy Steve Witkoff held Ukraine negotiations in Moscow.

Elsewhere, Morocco capitalizes on the Algeria–AES Sahel rift, the UN warns of Haiti’s imminent collapse, and our lead story examines the erosion of global anti-conquest norms.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 🇺🇳 India, Pakistan trade gunfire, UN calls for restraint: Indian and Pakistani forces have exchanged fire across the Line of Control following a deadly attack in Pahalgam that left 26 civilians dead. While India accused Pakistani-linked militants of responsibility, Islamabad denied involvement and warned against escalation. The UN has urged restraint, but tensions have soared, with India withdrawing from the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan closing its airspace to Indian airlines. As security operations intensify in Kashmir, both sides have hardened their positions, heightening fears of further conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

2️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇨🇳 Myanmar’s junta to extend ceasefire, China to monitor: China has dispatched a team to Myanmar to monitor a ceasefire it helped broker between the junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Beijing’s foreign ministry confirmed. The MNDAA—largely comprising ethnic Chinese fighters—captured key territory in Lashio near the Chinese border last year, prompting talks in Kunming that led to a formal ceasefire. Chinese officials say both parties acknowledged Beijing’s role in promoting peace and pledged to continue dialogue. The agreement, separate from ASEAN's wider ceasefire efforts, comes amid continued clashes and follows a deadly earthquake that has worsened Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 U.S.-Iran nuclear talks progressing ‘beyond belief’ says source: Unnamed Iranian sources have said that nuclear negotiations with the United States are advancing “beyond belief.” This framing may be strategic: by portraying talks as positive, Tehran could delay potential military strikes or snapback sanctions without making significant concessions. Iranian officials claim the U.S., represented by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, did not insist on dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and showed openness to Iran’s right to enrichment. Reports also suggest Tehran is willing to lower enrichment levels to 3.67%, as per the 2015 JCPOA. Upcoming technical talks, rescheduled for April 26 in Oman, will reportedly address enrichment levels, centrifuge activity, and Iran’s 60% enriched uranium stockpile—likely paving the way for high-level discussions between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

4️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Dozens of Ukrainians killed in Russian missile barrage as Witkoff arrives in Moscow: U.S. peace envoy Steve Witkoff has arrived in Moscow for further discussions with Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, on Donald Trump’s proposed Ukraine peace deal. With Trump’s self-imposed 100-day deadline approaching, Witkoff is tasked with relaying the president’s frustration over Thursday’s deadly strike on Kyiv while pushing for diplomatic progress. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed cautious optimism, but significant obstacles remain, especially Ukraine’s refusal to cede any occupied territory, including Crimea. Backed by key European leaders and NATO, President Zelenskyy reiterated that Kyiv will not accept terms violating Ukraine’s constitution or sovereignty.

5️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇶🇦 DRC government, M23 agree to ‘immediate’ ceasefire: The Democratic Republic of the Congo and M23 rebels have announced an agreement to halt fighting in the country’s east as they pursue a permanent truce. The joint statement, mediated by Qatar and aired on national television, marks a rare commitment to a ceasefire in a conflict that has seen numerous failed truces since 2021. Both parties pledged to maintain the cessation of hostilities for the duration of ongoing talks. While DR Congo has long accused M23 of being backed by Rwanda—claims Kigali denies—the Qatar-led mediation comes amid rising tensions and significant Qatari investments in both Rwanda and DR Congo.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇺🇦 🇸🇾 🇪🇷 🇬🇱 THE EROSION OF ANTI-CONQUEST NORMS

The post-World War II international order was built on institutions like the United Nations, aiming to prevent large-scale conflict. Central to this framework was a clear legal norm: states must not use force to alter borders. Codified in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, the principle helped preserve global stability by discouraging conquest.

Selective Enforcement and Eroding Norms

Yet this core rule has eroded. While major invasions—like Russia’s assault on Ukraine—remain rare, smaller-scale encroachments are on the rise. From Crimea to Ethiopia-Eritrea border tensions and Israeli activity in southern Syria, “nibbling” at sovereign borders weakens the anti-conquest norm more subtly but just as dangerously. Compounding this decline is inconsistent enforcement: Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 drew muted Western sanctions, undermining deterrence and emboldening further violations.

U.S. Hypocrisy and Strategic Ambiguity

The United States, once a leading voice for a “rules-based order,” now applies international norms increasingly selectively. Whether in Trump’s aggressive rhetoric toward Greenland and Canada, or past administrations’ mixed reactions to ICC rulings, credibility has diminished. The term “rules-based order” increasingly invites skepticism, raising the question—whose rules, and what order?

A Norm in Decline

The norm against territorial acquisition once functioned as a moral and legal restraint on state behavior. Today, as geopolitical ambition overrides legal constraint, that restraint is faltering. Without credible enforcement or consistent advocacy, the line between international law and realpolitik continues to blur. As this principle fades, the world inches closer to a more chaotic and unstable era—one where power, not principle, defines the map.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇦 🇩🇿 🇲🇱 Morocco takes advantage of Algeria-AES Sahel rift: On the night of March 31, Algeria announced it had downed a Turkish-made drone operated by Mali’s army after it crossed into its airspace. Mali denied the incursion, claiming the drone was shot down on its soil, and responded by recalling its ambassador—prompting similar moves from Burkina Faso and Niger. These developments have deepened a rift between Algiers and Sahelian juntas, whose military-led regimes have distanced themselves from Algeria’s past role as a regional mediator. With Mali now favouring military force—backed by Russian support via Wagner—over dialogue, Algeria’s influence has faded, while Morocco courts Sahelian regimes with strategic economic initiatives. Amid regional polarization, internal repression, and eroding trust, Algiers risks being sidelined unless it recalibrates its diplomacy and coordinates with new power brokers like Moscow.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trump to ‘substantially’ reduce tariffs on China: U.S. President Donald Trump stated that while tariffs on Chinese imports will “come down substantially,” they will not be removed entirely. His comments followed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s closed-door remarks calling the current tariffs unsustainable and suggesting a possible de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions. Despite the economic strain—stock market volatility, rising interest rates, and mounting global criticism—Trump insisted negotiations with China were progressing and reiterated a cooperative tone toward President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, Beijing warned countries against trade deals that harm Chinese interests, as reports emerged of China pressuring third-party firms to limit exports to U.S. defence contractors.

3️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇪🇬 🇵🇸 Qatar, Egypt propose new, long-term Gaza ceasefire deal: Qatari and Egyptian mediators have submitted a fresh proposal for a five- to seven-year ceasefire in Gaza, as a senior Hamas delegation travels to Cairo for renewed negotiations. The proposal reportedly includes the release of all remaining Israeli captives in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the possible transfer of governance in the Strip to a mutually agreed Palestinian administration. Talks come amid mounting international pressure, with a U.S.-Israeli delegation also in Cairo and Qatari officials meeting with U.S. counterparts in Washington. A previous ceasefire collapsed in March after Israel resumed its military campaign and blocked humanitarian aid.

4️⃣ 🇸🇻 🇻🇪 🇺🇸 Nayib Bukele suggests U.S.-Venezuela prisoner swap: El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has proposed a controversial prisoner exchange with Venezuela, offering to return 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. and held in Salvadoran prisons in exchange for political detainees imprisoned under President Nicolás Maduro’s government. Venezuela’s chief prosecutor dismissed the proposal as “neofascist,” accusing El Salvador of unlawfully detaining the Venezuelans and violating international human rights. The detainees were previously deported by the Trump administration under accusations of gang affiliations, which both Caracas and the detainees’ families deny. Bukele’s government, which is receiving $6 million from the U.S. to detain them, has yet to clarify the legal status of the prisoners.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇭🇹 UN warns of Haiti's imminent collapse: Haiti is teetering on the brink of collapse as rampant gang violence escalates, warned UN Special Representative María Isabel Salvador, calling the situation a “point of no return.” She urged urgent international support, citing widespread insecurity, cholera outbreaks, and gender-based violence, particularly in Port-au-Prince. Armed gangs now control large parts of the country, fueling murders, kidnappings, and clashes over territory. Despite the presence of a UN-backed, Kenyan-led security force, the mission remains critically understaffed, prompting Secretary-General António Guterres to warn that without immediate assistance, the Haitian capital may fall entirely.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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