Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 ICJ issues climate harm ruling

📰 ICJ issues climate harm ruling

and Sudan's war threatens economic collapse

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 27, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

This week, markets rally after President Trump announces a trade deal with Japan and hints at a forthcoming pact with the EU; Israel passes a motion to annex the West Bank; and Saudi Arabia opts for U.S. weapons over Chinese systems, citing security guarantees and operational compatibility.

Our lead story turns to Myanmar where China-backed normalisation risks entrenching military rule.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 Thai and Cambodian forces exchange deadly fire amid rising border tensions and political feuds: Border clashes between Thai and Cambodian troops have erupted, marking the most intense fighting in years. At least 15 people have been killed—14 of them civilians—as heavy artillery and Russian-made rockets were exchanged across multiple disputed border points. The fighting began near the disputed Ta Muen Thom temple and spread to eight locations across 270 km, with Cambodia striking civilian sites and Thailand responding with F-16 airstrikes. Bangkok accused Cambodian troops of planting landmines that maimed two Thai soldiers, triggering the crisis. A hospital was struck in Surin province, which Thailand’s health minister labelled a war crime. Personal rivalries between Cambodia’s Hun Sen and Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra, whose children now lead their respective governments, have deepened mistrust. ASEAN’s mediation faces steep challenges, as both sides exchange threats and reject talks until hostilities cease.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Over 100 aid, human rights NGOs sound alarm over Israeli starvation of Gaza: Dozens more Palestinian people have died from starvation under the U.S.- and Israeli-enforced siege on Gaza, bringing the known total to well over 100, mostly children. Over 100 aid and human rights organisations have warned their own workers are now starving, with some killed while trying to access food. At least 1,000 Palestinians have been shot dead by Israeli forces near aid distribution points, including those run by the Israel and U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. In a joint statement, groups such as MSF and Caritas condemned Israel’s restrictions and called for an immediate ceasefire, the opening of all crossings, and the restoration of a UN-led aid operation. Israel rejected the claims, launching a new offensive in Deir el-Balah where many aid groups operate.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇻🇺 International Court of Justice rules states may owe reparations for failing to prevent climate harm: In a landmark opinion, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ruled that states have a legal duty to prevent climate damage and may be liable for reparations if they fail. The advisory opinion, requested by the UN and championed by Vanuatu, explicitly targets fossil fuels, declaring state inaction on emissions or subsidies a potential international wrongful act. The ICJ also held governments responsible for regulating private sector contributions to climate harm. The ruling affirms that climate inaction breaches existing treaties and customary international law, including the right to a clean and healthy environment. Although non-binding, the opinion is seen as legally authoritative and could influence future lawsuits and negotiations. Climate campaigners hailed it as a turning point for climate justice and accountability.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 Sudan’s war risks collapsing economy by 42 percent and pushing millions deeper into poverty: Sudan’s civil war between the army and Rapid Support Forces has devastated the country, displacing over 14 million people, collapsing key services, and crippling the economy. Using a Social Accounting Matrix model, researchers estimate Sudan’s economy could shrink by up to 42% by 2025, falling from US$56.3 billion to US$32.4 billion. Industrial output may halve, agriculture and services contract by over a third, and nearly 4.6 million jobs could vanish. Poverty may surge, especially in rural areas, with millions more falling below the poverty line. The agrifood sector alone could lose a third of its value. Without peace and urgent international support, the economic damage may become irreversible, entrenching a humanitarian crisis with generational consequences.

5️⃣ 🇯🇵 Prime Minister Ishiba rejects resignation despite upper house election setback: Japan’s ruling coalition has lost its upper house majority, prompting renewed scrutiny of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s leadership. Securing just 47 of the 50 seats needed to retain control, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito now face diminished influence in both legislative chambers. Ishiba acknowledged the “harsh result” but vowed to stay on, citing ongoing trade negotiations with the United States as a priority. The rise of the far-right Sanseito party, which gained 14 seats with anti-immigration rhetoric and conspiracy-laden campaigning, has eroded the LDP’s conservative base. Amid inflation and political scandals, Ishiba’s tenure appears increasingly fragile, with potential successors like Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi waiting in the wings.

Major Story

Credit: Sergeant Paul Shaw LBIPP.

🇲🇲 🇨🇳 CHINA-BACKED NORMALISATION RISKS ENTRENCHING MYANMAR’S MILITARY RULE

Myanmar’s military regime is gaining diplomatic breathing space as global power dynamics shift. China has stepped in to bolster the junta, discouraging collapse and encouraging neighbours to re-engage with Naypyitaw. Meanwhile, U.S. retreat from democracy promotion and waning Western resolve have softened regional resistance to normalising relations, despite ongoing military losses and worsening humanitarian conditions inside Myanmar.

Elections Will Deepen, Not Resolve, the Crisis

The junta’s planned elections, lacking credibility and held amid a collapsing state, are unlikely to ease Myanmar’s political deadlock. Instead, they risk sparking renewed violence as the military suppresses opposition and resistance groups seek to disrupt the vote. While these polls may offer diplomatic cover for some governments to legitimise military rule, they will do little to reduce fighting or address the root causes of the conflict.

Humanitarian Needs Demand Innovation

As aid budgets shrink globally, Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis is intensifying. Traditional assistance channels are faltering, especially in ethnic-controlled areas. Donors must explore creative mechanisms—leveraging international financial institutions, targeting transnational crime funding, and supporting low-cost, high-impact interventions such as community health and non-state governance. Without such innovation, millions will remain underserved and regional spillover effects will worsen.

Preventing a Dangerous Normalisation

Despite its battlefield setbacks, the regime is finding new lifelines through international realignment. But elections will not confer legitimacy—only deeper instability. With little chance of diplomatic breakthroughs, the focus should remain on preserving coordination, denying recognition to military rule, and addressing Myanmar’s deepening humanitarian emergency with strategic flexibility and moral clarity.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇭🇷 🇧🇦 Croatia escalates nationalist push to partition Bosnia under guise of minority rights: Nearly three decades after the Dayton Agreement ended Bosnia’s war, its flawed power-sharing system is being weaponised by Croatian nationalists to undermine the state’s sovereignty. At a recent conference marking Dayton’s anniversary, Croatian officials pushed ethnonationalist narratives—including proposals for segregated education and redrawn electoral zones—that echo the wartime project of carving Bosnia into ethnically pure territories. Through HDZ BiH, Zagreb continues to obstruct EU-mandated reforms, defying European Court of Human Rights rulings and attempting to entrench ethnic exclusivity via election law changes. While Republika Srpska’s Milorad Dodik’s secessionist threats remain visible, Croatia’s campaign is more insidious—framed as concern for Bosnian Croats but aligned with the original partition agenda. Without decisive international intervention, Bosnia risks a managed disintegration, with its sovereignty quietly eroded and its democratic future held hostage by external nationalist forces.

2️⃣ 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 Markets surge after Trump announces trade deal with Japan and signals EU pact may follow: Global markets rallied following President Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Japan, sparking optimism that a similar agreement with the EU is imminent. Tokyo’s Nikkei soared 3.5%, EU markets climbed, and US indices hit record highs. The U.S.–Japan deal imposes a 15% tariff on imports—lower than the threatened 25%—boosting shares in Japanese automakers. Investors welcomed the move, viewing it as a sign that Trump may avoid harsher trade measures. The EU is threatening retaliatory tariffs unless a deal is reached by next week. Though the new tariffs exceed pre-Trump levels, traders are prioritising reduced uncertainty. Economists caution that the agreements may raise inflation and weigh on supply chains, with only modest gains likely if EU talks follow Japan’s model.

3️⃣ 🇨🇴 ELN drone strike kills Colombian soldiers in Catatumbo region: Three soldiers were killed and eight wounded when a drone strike hit a military patrol near El Carmen in Colombia’s Catatumbo region, according to the army. Authorities blamed the National Liberation Army (ELN), a guerrilla group active since the 1960s. The attack, one of the deadliest drone incidents recorded, reflects a growing trend of rebel groups using commercial drones rigged with explosives to target military units and rival factions. Colombia’s Defence Ministry reported 115 such strikes last year. Violence in rural zones has surged since the 2016 demobilisation of FARC, with armed groups now battling for control of illicit economies. Peace talks with the ELN were suspended in January after a wave of attacks left at least 80 dead and displaced tens of thousands.

4️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇨🇾 Erdogan attends anniversary of Turkish invasion as Cypriot divide hardens: Greek and Turkish Cypriots marked 51 years since Turkey’s 1974 invasion of Cyprus on Sunday, highlighting enduring tensions over the island’s division. Air raid sirens echoed across Greek Cypriot areas at dawn—the moment Turkish forces landed in response to a coup backed by Greece. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended commemorations in the Turkish-occupied north, while Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides denounced the “shameful” celebrations and vowed never to “yield an inch of land.” Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar defended the invasion as bringing “peace and tranquility” to his community, while reunification talks remain stalled. The conflict remains a major obstacle in Turkey’s EU relations, with UN-brokered dialogue offering little progress. Secretary-General António Guterres warned that rebuilding trust will be a “long road ahead.”

5️⃣ 🇪🇷 🇪🇹 Eritrea exploits Tigray divisions as fear of renewed conflict grows in northern Ethiopia: Tensions are rising in northern Ethiopia amid reports of Eritrean troop movements and internal rifts within Tigray's leadership. Though the Pretoria peace deal ended a devastating two-year war in 2022, civilians remain fearful. Eritrea—excluded from the negotiations—has reportedly entrenched itself militarily and economically, looting Tigray during the conflict and profiting from illicit trade, according to The Sentry. Meanwhile, rival TPLF factions accuse one another of aligning with Eritrea, weakening regional unity. Analysts say Eritrea thrives on Ethiopia’s fragmentation and may support proxy actors like the Fano militia. Prime Minister Abiy’s strategy of keeping internal challengers divided ahead of 2026 elections adds to volatility. With the Pretoria Agreement faltering, observers warn that without political compromise, Ethiopia’s fragile peace may once again unravel.