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💥 Hezbollah-Israel front reaches boiling point

💥 Hezbollah-Israel front reaches boiling point

and Washington tables a ceasefire deal

Ross Crabtree
June 09, 2024

Hello and welcome back!

This week, elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have yielded notable outcomes, alongside the ongoing European Union elections. Meanwhile, tensions rise on the Hizbollah-Israel front, while the US proposes a new ceasefire in Gaza.

News from Somalia and the Korean peninsula also makes headlines.

Let’s get into it ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧🇮🇱 Hizbollah-Israel front Reaches Boiling Point: The Iran-backed group has been engaged in a low-scale conflict with Israel since October 2023, and fighting has somewhat followed “rules of engagement,” wherein both sides try to avoid significant civilian casualties. However, Israel has progressively extended its strikes deeper into Lebanon, using banned weapons such as white phosphorus, resulting in many civilian deaths. The past week has seen a significant increase in both the number and intensity of attacks, resulting in considerable damage. Many in Israel believe that invading Lebanon to fight Hizbollah is necessary to enable displaced citizens to return to their homes in the North.

2️⃣ 🇲🇽 First female Mexican President: Claudia Sheinbaum has been elected Mexico's first female president in a historic landslide. Preliminary results show the 61-year-old former mayor of Mexico City winning over 58% of the vote. Sheinbaum will succeed her mentor, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), on 1 October. A former energy scientist, she has pledged to continue AMLO's popular welfare programs. In addition to the presidency, voters elected all members of Congress, governors in eight states, the head of Mexico City's government, and thousands of local officials. Sheinbaum is expected to maintain AMLO's cautious stance toward the US, and her election may have an inordinate impact on US presidential elections, particularly with regard to how she manages immigration.

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 Modi and the BJP fail to obtain a parliamentary majority: India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) anticipated expanding its parliamentary majority, confidently predicting up to 400 out of 543 seats. However, election results showed that the BJP lost 63 seats, securing only 240 and finding itself compelled to form coalitions. The National Congress Party, previously thought to be fading into obscurity, came in second. While the implications for India's economic progress remain uncertain, the election results underscore the strength of its democracy, which had been overshadowed by Modi's controversial measures to suppress dissent and fuel sectarian tensions.

4️⃣ 🇰🇵🇰🇷 Uptick in Korean peninsula tensions: This week, North Korea launched about 980 balloons filled with garbage across the Korean Demilitarised Zone (DMZ). The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff reported sightings in Seoul, Chungcheong, Jeolla, Gyeongsang, Gangwon, and Gyeonggi. While seemingly trivial, this action marks rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula and represents a form of grey zone warfare. North Korea Vice Minister of Defense Kim Kang Il stated the balloons were in retaliation against the Fighters for a Free North Korea, led by Park Sang-hak, who had sent balloons carrying anti-North Korean leaflets and USB drives with K-Pop and other media.

5️⃣ 🇪🇺 European Union elections: Elections across the European Union began this week, in a vote that will have significant policy implications for the 27-member bloc. Nearly 370 million Europeans will vote for the European Parliament, the EU's only directly elected body with legislative blocking power. The vote, held every five years, is expected to bolster far-right parties amid rising dissatisfaction with the centrist bloc, impacting policies on climate change, migration, foreign policy, and social rights. Despite this, the main centrist groups, EPP and S&D, are forecasted to remain dominant, likely securing Ursula von der Leyen another term as European Commission president. Analysts warn that the rise of the radical right could significantly affect EU policies on migration and the environment.

Major Story

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇵🇸 Washington tables a ceasefire deal

Washington has proposed a new ceasefire agreement, offering the most promising— and perhaps final—opportunity to halt the current conflict in Gaza, and secure the release of hostages currently held in the region.

In the midst of these discussions, airstrikes in Central Gaza persist, with a recent Sky News investigation revealing that an American-manufactured bomb was deployed in the Israeli strike targeting a school in Nuseirat refugee camp. This attack resulted in the loss of 40 lives, including 14 children. Moreover, 23 children were wounded in the strike, bringing the total casualties to nearly 200,000.

Four hostages were rescued by Israeli forces in Central Gaza amidst the bombing, although analysts say that this could have been achieved—with far less civilian casualties—had earlier ceasefire deals been accepted.

Beyond the confines of Gaza, the endeavours of Egyptian, Qatari, and American mediators to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas are at a critical stage. The current proposal represents a significant advancement from previous attempts, approaching closer to resolving the primary obstacle concerning a permanent ceasefire. While Hamas insists on a permanent cessation of hostilities, Israel remains reluctant. The proposed plan entails an immediate ceasefire and a partial exchange of hostages/prisoners, with subsequent discussions focusing on Gaza's governance and security.

While the current proposal fails to fully satisfy either party, it appears unlikely that a better alternative will emerge in the near future, particularly as the Hizbollah-Israel front rapidly intensifies. International Crisis Group asserts that prolonging the war increases the risk of regional escalation, potentially drawing in Washington and Tehran to a greater and more destructive degree. From both an International humanitarian law and political perspective, both Israel and Hamas should accept the proposed deal as a humanitarian necessity—recognizing that neither side can achieve a strategic victory—as continued warfare will only lead to more suffering for the people of Gaza without advancing the ostensible objectives of either party.

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Other News

🇿🇦 South Africa’s ANC wants a national unity government: After losing its majority in the recent general elections, South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) has proposed the formation of a national unity government with major opposition parties. The announcement comes after speculation about whether the ANC would pursue a grand coalition government with its closest political rival, the Democratic Alliance, or collaborate with the uMKhonto we Sizwe faction associated with former President Jacob Zuma, whose electoral gains largely impacted the ANC's performance.

🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 New US package for Ukraine: Joe Biden announced an additional $225 million in military aid to Kyiv during a meeting with the Ukrainian president in Paris. Biden commended Ukraine's resilience, stating, "You haven’t bowed down, you haven’t yielded at all, you continue to fight in a way that is … just remarkable. We are not going to walk away from you." Meanwhile, Russian authorities stated that Ukrainian strikes in parts of the Russian-held Luhansk and Kherson regions has resulted in the death of 26 people since Friday.

🇫🇷🇺🇸 US state visit to France: French President Emmanuel Macron and Joe Biden commenced the US president's official state visit to France with a ceremony at the Arc de Triomphe. This event followed their attendance at commemorations for the 80th anniversary of the D-day landings in Normandy on Thursday. During their meetings, the presidents are anticipated to address various topics, including Ukraine, the Gaza conflict, global security, NATO strengthening, and policy matters such as the climate crisis and naval cooperation.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇸🇴 Re-emergence of piracy off the coast of Somalia: After a decade of relative calm, Somali pirates have hijacked several vessels in recent months. The Houthi-initiated instability in the Red Sea and, consequently, the Gulf of Aden has been exacerbated by economic turmoil and food shortages, leading to a resurgence of piracy. Since November 2023, Somali pirates have been involved in over 30 piracy incidents along the coast, and coastal communities, frustrated by illegal trawling, are increasingly sympathising with and participating in these dangerous yet lucrative activities.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 Haqanian declares intent for Iranian Presidency: Vahid Haqanian, or "Mr. Vahid," has gone from being a key member of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's inner circle to reportedly being sidelined. Analysts suggest his presidential bid raises questions about his motives and has led to a public clash with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) media affiliate. On June 4, Tasnim News Agency, in a pointed remark, stated that "no one in the elections is the choice of the Office of the Supreme Leader."

2️⃣ 🇧🇭🇮🇷🇷🇺 Bahrain looks to normalise ties with Iran: Bahrain has requested to re-establish diplomatic relations with Iran via a message sent through Russia, according to Iranian news reports citing presidential adviser Mohammad Jamshidi. Manama cut ties with Tehran in 2016 amid Saudi-Iran tensions and accusations of Iranian support for Bahrain's 2011 protests. Last year, Saudi Arabia restored relations with Iran through a Chinese-brokered deal. During a recent visit to Moscow, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa expressed a desire for better relations with Iran.