Scanning the global headlines recently you would be quite right to think that something is brewing. 

UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps recently warned that “the era of the peace dividend is over” - something of which there can no longer be any doubt. He went on to say that “in five years time” the UK could be looking at multiple theatres including Russia, China, Iran and North Korea” posing the question of whether the number of conflicts across the globe will decrease or continue to grow - the answer being obvious to anyone who keeps an eye on global geopolitics or follows this channel.

Looking around the world today it is plain to see that the post-Cold War order is under strain - looking ever more likely to buckle and break somewhere, which, in turn, could lead to a global conflict. Scary stuff. 

So, we know that the world is becoming more unstable, but are we really headed for a third world war? In the years since 2022, it no longer seems like such an outrageous question to pose. Let’s take a quick look at the global geopolitical state of play to see where things could kick off ⤵️

China & Taiwan

A Quick Glimpse

The relationship between China and Taiwan is fraught with tension. China claims that Taiwan is an integral part of its territory, and has done so since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 when Republican forces retreated to the island bastion. China has expressed its commitment to "reunification" with Taiwan many times over the years, potentially by force if necessary. Meanwhile, Taiwan, with its democratic government, resists these claims, seeking international support to maintain its sovereignty.

Our Take

While tensions are high, the likelihood of this conflict directly causing World War Three remains low. This is because of the significant international implications were China to try and take Taiwan by force. The US, among other nations, has a vested interest in Taiwan's security, and any military action could draw in the world’s superpower and its allies, leading to a broader conflict. However, this scenario is generally considered a last resort by all parties involved. Though we at Horizon think that this hotspot currently remains the least likely of those examined in this newsletter to cause a global conflict, it continues to have the characteristics of a dormant volcano, with the consequences of any eruption being apocalyptic.

The Red Sea

A Quick Glimpse: 

The Red Sea region is a strategic corridor for global shipping, being surrounded by several countries with a history of political instability and conflict. Ongoing conflicts on its shores include those in Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia, with tensions also being high between Ethiopia and Somalia over a recent port deal between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran pervade the region, while interest from the UAE and Turkey is also high. Most recently the region has been drawn into sharp focus due to the escalating conflict between the US and allies, and Yemeni Houthi rebels, who continue to attack shipping transiting some of the world’s most important sea lanes. 

Our Take

While the battle between the US, its allies, and the Houthis continues to intensify, this conflict and others around the Red Sea are unlikely to cause a global conflict in themselves. However, were such a conflict to erupt this region would be hotly contested due to its geostrategic importance - with ongoing fighting escalating to a whole new level. Moreover, events in the Red Sea have the potential to intensify conflicts elsewhere, which in turn could escalate to a wider conflict, particularly concerning Israel and Iran. However, for now, the likelihood of this remains low. 

While we’ve got you - make sure to check out today’s sponsor the Bay Area Times. Their visually appealing newsletter will have you up to date on business and tech news in no time.

So hit that button above to stay in the loop ⬆️

Israel-Palestine/Hamas & Iran

A Quick Glimpse

The current fighting between Israel and Hamas began following a surprise attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in over 1,400 Israeli deaths and the taking of more than 240 hostages. In response, Israel launched a widespread bombardment of the Gaza Strip and a ground incursion, causing tens of thousands of Palestinian casualties. This conflict is part of a long-standing dispute over land and statehood, with both sides having deep historical claims to the territory. The situation has been further complicated by international involvement (particularly on the part of Iran) and failed peace efforts, making a resolution difficult to achieve.

Our Take

Initially, Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza was seen by many experts as having the potential to cause regional escalation, which in turn could have led to global war. This threat was given further weight due to kinetic engagements with Hezbollah along Israel’s northern border, which could have seen Israel intervene in Lebanon and potential Iranian involvement. However, none of these scenarios seemed to have panned out, and the likelihood of escalation seems much lower than at the beginning of the current fighting. Again, it seems as though the potential for a global conflict to start here is low, at least for now.

Venezuela-Guyana

A Quick Glimpse

Recent tensions over the Essequibo region between Guyana and Venezuela intensified after Venezuela held a referendum on December 1, 2023, where President Nicolás Maduro sought public support to annex the oil-rich territory. Despite international recognition of the Essequibo as part of Guyana, Maduro's government has claimed the region, citing historical ties from the colonial period when both were administered by Spain. The International Court of Justice has ordered Venezuela to refrain from actions altering the current status, but Venezuela contests the court's authority. The referendum, which showed overwhelming support for annexation, has been criticized as an attempt to distract from domestic issues and bolster Maduro's political standing ahead of the 2024 elections.

Our Take

This dispute, while significant for the involved countries, is unlikely to escalate into a global conflict. Regional organizations like the Organization of American States (OAS) and international courts are involved in mediating the dispute, aiming to reach a peaceful resolution. Moreover, Venezuela, if it invaded Guyana, would likely incur the wrath of the United States - a scenario it would like to avoid. Were Caracas to march in the troops (something which would be very hard to do given the terrain and lack of infrastructure), then the likelihood of any World War III” would still be low. 

Russia-Ukraine

A Quick Glimpse

In February of 2022 Russian Troops surged over the Ukrainian border, looking likely to take the country’s capital Kyiv. However, Ukrainian forces with significant Western assistance successfully halted the Russian advance, taking back a large amount of occupied territory from invading forces. 

However, this previous success looks increasingly likely to be reversed. Russia, with its economy only lightly impacted by Western sanctions, seems to be making advances once again, recently taking the strategically important city of Avdiivka. While Ukraine, devastated by the onslaught of the past two years, looks increasingly war-weary. 

Our Take

By now you may be asking: what is the point of this newsletter if the risk of an escalation to “World War III” is low everywhere? Well, this is where it gets a bit hairy.

If Russia continues its recent advances in Ukraine, then things may get dicey.

French President Emmanuel Macron recently stated that, on the subject of deploying French troops to Ukraine, “nothing should be excluded”, particularly if Russian forces make a breakthrough toward Odessa.

Were this to occur, and were French troops to enter Ukraine, perhaps alongside the forces of other NATO countries, the implications would be serious and obvious, with Vladimir Putin stating that the end result would be the use of nuclear weapons - essentially causing World War III.

For now, given that numerous NATO states have said that they have no plans to deploy troops to Ukraine, or have opposed the idea entirely, this seems unlikely. 

However….

In the event that Russian forces do break through, and Ukraine looks set to collapse, this scenario becomes more likely - at least in our opinion.

Could NATO leaders, panicked by the potential for Russian troops to end up on the Polish border, send in the tanks to establish a buffer zone or something similar? For us at Horizon this isn’t out of the question. 

Moreover, the likelihood of those eastern NATO states which are geographically too close to Russia for comfort, taking independent action is not small either. Again, something that would likely result in regional, if not global, conflict.

For now, who knows what is being discussed behind closed doors? But as of writing Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has said that 'NATO forces presence in Ukraine is not unthinkable’. This suggests to us the idea is likely being floated - the logic being “better to stop Russia now than let it invade other countries” - no matter how unlikely that seems.

So to finally answer the question - while the likelihood of escalation remains low for most of the conflicts we have discussed, there is a creeping chance of escalation in Ukraine.

Make sure to keep reading our newsletter for more!

Tips & Suggestions

Please let us know - would you like us to continue these mid-week specials where we take a deeper dive into geopolitical issues? Just hit reply. Suggestions are more than welcome.