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📰 Hamas tentatively accepts Trump plan

📰 Hamas tentatively accepts Trump plan

and Russia-NATO tensions escalate

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
October 05, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

This week, a DR Congo military court sentences former President Joseph Kabila to death in absentia, Trump tells US generals his administration will target “domestic threats,” and Arab states deliver mixed responses to Trump’s Gaza plan.

Our lead story revisits the African Union—where African states, acting collectively, confront the challenge of turning visibility into real influence in global governance.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 Trump and Netanyahu propose Gaza annexation under Tony Blair: US and Israeli leadership have unveiled a “peace plan” demanding Gaza’s effective annexation under a U.S.-led administration headed by Tony Blair. Critics say the plan sidelines the UN, violates international law, and extinguishes any prospect of Palestinian statehood by legally severing Gaza from the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Hamas has agreed to key parts of the plan.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Russia accused of sabotaging Zaporizhzhia power line to force nuclear crisis: Russia is accused of deliberately disabling the final power line to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The cut has left the plant dependent on diesel generators for cooling its six reactors, a situation the IAEA calls “clearly unsustainable.” Greenpeace and independent analysts suggest the sabotage is part of Russia’s plan to sever Ukrainian links and integrate the facility into its own power grid, raising fears of a manufactured nuclear crisis to cement Moscow’s control.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇭🇹 UN approves expanded multinational force to combat gangs in Haiti: The United Nations has approved a resolution upgrading its Haiti mission into a fully fledged multinational force of up to 5,500 troops and police to confront rampant gang violence. Backed by the US and Panama, the enlarged mission will replace the current 1,000-strong deployment, mostly Kenyan officers, which has struggled to stem killings, mass displacement, and neighborhood destruction.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 China’s military innovation reshapes balance of power in East Asia: Beijing has become a global leader in fields from AI and robotics to nuclear power and high-speed rail—and its military is no exception. Recent satellite imagery, weapons testing, and large-scale infrastructure projects highlight a decades-long modernisation drive that has shifted the regional balance decisively in China’s favour, especially over Taiwan. The reality is clear: an arms race now favours Beijing, and East Asia’s equilibrium is being redrawn on China’s terms.

5️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇷🇺 France seizes Russia-linked tanker amid investigation into Baltic drone incursions: French naval forces boarded the oil tanker Boracay, suspected of belonging to Russia’s “shadow fleet” and linked to unexplained drone flights that recently forced the closure of Danish airports. The vessel, intercepted while carrying Russian crude from Primorsk to India, has a history of changing names and registrations to evade sanctions, and is now under investigation in Saint-Nazaire for failing to prove its nationality and refusing cooperation.

Major Story

🇰🇪 🇪🇹 🇿🇦 AFRICA’S INFLUENCE DILEMMA IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

African states remain sidelined in key global institutions despite being disproportionately affected by their decisions. Since the African Union’s 2005 Ezulwini Consensus, leaders have demanded two permanent seats on the UN Security Council (UNSC), yet reform has stalled even though most of the UNSC’s agenda concerns Africa. At the UN General Assembly, Sierra Leone’s President Maada Bio called this exclusion “unjust and untenable,” warning that it undermines the UN’s credibility.

Economic Marginalisation

Africa’s voice also remains limited within the IMF and World Bank, where it bears the brunt of climate shocks and debt crises but holds minimal voting power. Kenyan President William Ruto stressed that reforming these institutions is not charity but essential for global stability, pointing to punitive lending terms for poorer states. A breakthrough came in 2023, when the AU secured permanent membership of the G20—placing Africa, at last, alongside the EU in global economic decision-making.

The Responsibility of Representation

The first G20 summit on African soil in 2025 offers an historic chance to highlight continental priorities: debt restructuring, climate finance, and embedding the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in global trade rules. Yet inclusion brings new responsibilities. Real influence requires coherence, technical expertise, and political will, not just visibility. Financial independence for the AU, stronger enforcement of continental agreements, and investment in negotiation capacity are vital steps.

Collective Voice vs. Fragmented Action

Despite progress, divergent national ambitions often weaken Africa’s leverage. States frequently negotiate individually in forums such as the WTO, diluting collective influence. Regional blocs like ECOWAS, SADC and IGAD can respond faster to crises, but overlapping memberships, rivalries and poor implementation undermine them. Aligning national strategies with continental goals—on trade through the AfCFTA or security via the African Standby Force—remains critical.

Major powers now compete for African partnerships, but without unity the continent risks remaining a stage for global rivalries rather than shaping international rules.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇪🇹 African Union mission in Somalia risks collapse amid funding shortfall: The African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia is on the brink of collapse after stakeholders revealed a funding gap of nearly $200 million. The mission, already scaled back from its predecessor ATMIS, remains critical as al-Shabaab escalates attacks across Somalia’s south and centre, while the country’s fractured military and political turmoil leave it ill-prepared to face the insurgency alone.

2️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇸🇴 🇾🇪 UAE expands Gulf of Aden hegemony with network of Red Sea bases: The UAE has constructed a network of military outposts across Yemen, Somalia, and Somaliland, giving it control over key shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Developed in close partnership with Israel and supported by U.S. backing, these bases host joint radar, drone, and intelligence systems designed to counter the Houthis and Iran, while also enabling covert arms transfers to Sudan’s RSF.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel intercepts Gaza aid flotilla in international waters: The IDF seized several humanitarian vessels of the Global Sumud Flotilla 70–80 nautical miles off Gaza’s coast, detaining activists. Organisers said their 40-ship convoy carried food, medicine, and supplies for Gaza but was intercepted in international waters where freedom of navigation applies under international law. Israel, however, maintains its long-running naval blockade, a policy widely deemed unlawful under international law.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇵🇱 Russia escalates airspace violations as NATO faces mounting pressure: Russian drones and fighter jets have breached the airspace of Poland, Romania, Denmark, Norway, and Estonia in recent weeks, fueling fears that Moscow’s aggression is widening beyond Ukraine. European leaders at the Warsaw Security Forum warned that Putin is testing NATO’s defenses, exploiting gaps in readiness, and that deterrence is no longer enough.

5️⃣ 🇲🇬 Madagascar’s president dissolves government after youth-led protests: Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina has dismissed his government after mass protests over crippling power and water shortages left at least 22 people dead and more than 100 injured, according to the UN. The unrest, driven largely by young demonstrators in Antananarivo, marks the most serious challenge to his rule since re-election in 2023.