Hello and welcome back.

Belarusian President Lukashenko rules out seeking re-election and dismisses claims he is preparing his son as successor; ICC issues arrest warrant for Libyan commander over alleged war crimes; and Australia will recognise a Palestinian state at the UN next month.

Our lead story turns to Lebanon, where a U.S.-backed push to disarm Hizbollah is igniting debate over security guarantees and the future of state sovereignty.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 Haiti declares state of emergency as gang violence spreads beyond capital: Haiti has declared a three-month state of emergency across the West, Centre, and Artibonite departments amid escalating gang violence. The government said the measure is vital to combat insecurity and address an agricultural crisis in Artibonite, the nation’s “rice basket,” which has seen surging attacks. Violence intensified after the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, displacing 1.3 million people and killing nearly 4,900 between October 2024 and June 2025, according to the UN. While 90% of Port-au-Prince is under gang control, killings and kidnappings are rising in rural areas. Andre Jonas Vladimir Paraison has been appointed interim police chief, replacing Normil Rameau, as Haiti works with a Kenya-led UN mission. The Transitional Presidential Council, led by Laurent Saint-Cyr, is tasked with organising elections by February 2026.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy rejects Donbas-for-truce proposal: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ruled out ceding the Donbas region to Russia as part of a ceasefire deal, days before U.S. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss ending the war. Trump has floated “land swapping” as part of a settlement, with U.S. officials reportedly considering offering Donbas in exchange for halting Russia’s southern offensive. Zelenskyy warned that relinquishing the region would hand Moscow a “bridgehead” for future offensives into Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Kharkiv. He dismissed territorial exchanges as “real estate deals” divorced from security guarantees, insisting any agreement must protect Ukraine’s sovereignty. While supporting swift peace efforts, he said talks excluding Kyiv “will not be accepted” and urged Trump to push for a ceasefire and tougher sanctions on Russia.

3️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar junta and resistance wage parallel wars over financial lifelines: Myanmar’s post-coup conflict is as much financial as military. The junta funds its rule through tight control of state revenues, customs duties, and the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM), which issues credit and prints cash, fuelling inflation near 30% and an 80% currency collapse since 2021. In contrast, the resistance relies on diaspora lotteries, “war bonds,” property auctions, and cryptocurrency systems. International sanctions have targeted key state banks and frozen over $1 billion in CBM assets in the U.S., while new U.S. legislation aims to expand these measures. The junta seeks to bypass restrictions through alternative banks and lobbying. Both sides fight on dual fronts — in Myanmar’s towns and villages, and in global financial hubs where control over foreign exchange is as decisive as control over territory.

4️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇦🇲 🇦🇿 Iran vows to block U.S.-brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan transit corridor: Iran has vowed to block a planned transport corridor linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave under a U.S.-brokered peace deal with Armenia, warning it threatens regional security. Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, called the project — the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — “political treachery” and a NATO gateway “between Iran and Russia.” The corridor, operating under Armenian law, was welcomed by Turkiye as a boost to regional trade, while Russia cautioned against “non-regional” interference. Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have fought multiple wars over Nagorno-Karabakh, appear close to a final peace accord after resolving all territorial disputes.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇱🇾 🇹🇩 Sudan emerges as a new hub for captagon production: With Syria’s state-backed captagon industry dismantled, production networks are shifting, and Sudan is rapidly becoming a key hub. Since the outbreak of civil war in April 2023, authorities have uncovered major laboratories, including one capable of producing 100,000 pills per hour, often in RSF-controlled areas. Weak governance, porous borders, and proximity to Gulf markets make Sudan ideal for manufacturing and smuggling. The RSF’s history of profiting from illicit economies—from gold to livestock—suggests likely involvement, using the drug trade to fund its war effort. As the RSF retreats to Darfur, production is expected to follow established trafficking routes into Libya and Chad, embedding captagon into Sudan’s conflict economy and deepening the war’s regional criminal dimensions.

Major Story

🇱🇧 🇺🇳 LEBANON’S DISARMAMENT DRIVE TESTS HIZBOLLAH AND STATE SOVEREIGNTY

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s cabinet has approved its most assertive measure yet to restore Lebanon’s monopoly over armed force, directing the Lebanese Army to prepare a plan to disarm all non-state actors by year’s end. The move—hailed by U.S. envoy Tom Barrack as a “historic” step towards sovereignty—directly challenges Hizbollah’s entrenched military autonomy. The Iran-allied group, armed with a formidable arsenal and deep political influence, views the decision as an existential threat. Without binding guarantees for the security of south Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, areas that have seen thousands of Israeli ceasefire violations, it argues that accepting the U.S. plan would amount to capitulating to Israeli interests.

Domestic Fallout and Street Tensions

Citing the absence of robust security guarantees, Shia ministers walked out of cabinet sessions in protest, and Hizbollah leaders escalated their rhetoric, warning the decision could undermine “civil peace.” While Hizbollah’s ally, the Amal Movement, has sought to curb provocative street actions, sporadic protests in Beirut and southern suburbs have underscored the risk of unrest spiralling beyond political control. The standoff revives the unresolved issue from the 1989 Taif Agreement, which ended Lebanon’s civil war but left Hizbollah’s weapons untouched. 

Competing Visions and External Leverage

A resounding chorus of analysts, including those not aligned with Hizbollah, denounce the decision as externally driven and question the army’s ability to enforce it, citing unresolved territorial dilemmas such as the Israel-occupied Shebaa Farms. In contrast, Christian nationalist polities such as Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces see a rare opportunity: a U.S.-backed roadmap linking disarmament to Israeli withdrawal, border demarcation, security guarantees, and economic assistance.

Strategic Stakes and Army’s Role

Strategists emphasise that the Lebanese Army, though unlikely to engage Hizbollah directly, now benefits from favourable political arithmetic and growing foreign backing. The looming renewal of the UNIFIL peacekeeping mandate—which, incidentally, has failed to curtail Israeli ceasefire compliance—could expand its resources and remit. Some advocates say the army’s track record in confronting extremist groups in Nahr al-Bared (2007) and Arsal (2017) proves its operational competence if given the mandate and support.

A Defining Moment

For Hizbollah, outright rejection of the plan risks branding it as an armed faction outside the constitution; for the state, failure to act could entrench the status quo and invite further Israeli pressure. Yet should Hizbollah comply, Israel’s strategic footprint in South Lebanon may become established as faits accomplis. Shia ministers warn that concessions before Israeli compliance on the November 2024 ceasefire will erode Lebanon’s sovereignty. The coming months will test whether Lebanon can transition from fragmented authority to unified state control, or relapse into the cycles of confrontation that have defined its post-war history.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇧 🇹🇼 🇵🇼 🇨🇳 Solomon Islands limits Pacific Islands Forum meeting to members amid Taiwan tensions: Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele has confirmed that next month’s Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting in Honiara will exclude dialogue partners, restricting participation to PIF members. Manele framed the move as a “sovereign” decision to protect regional unity, dismissing suggestions of Chinese pressure to sideline Taiwan. The prime minister said the change was due to delays in implementing a new framework for partner engagement, urging more time to “engage effectively” and focus on priorities like climate finance. Critics, including New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, expressed unease, while Palau backed the decision. The United States is reportedly displeased, and Taiwan has urged maintaining current arrangements. Manele signalled partners could be invited next year once the revised mechanism is in place.

2️⃣ 🇸🇻 El Salvador scraps presidential term limits as critics warn of deepening autocracy: El Salvador’s legislature has passed sweeping constitutional reforms abolishing presidential term limits, extending terms to six years, and removing run-off elections—moves critics say cement President Nayib Bukele’s grip on power. The U.S.-backed leader, who brands himself the “world’s coolest dictator,” has faced years of accusations of eroding democratic checks, sidelining opponents, and stacking courts with loyalists. Supporters argue the changes merely give voters the option to re-elect Bukele, whose gang crackdown has sharply lowered homicide rates. But rights groups warn the reforms dismantle one of the country’s final safeguards against authoritarianism. Opposition lawmakers say power is now fully concentrated in Bukele’s hands, raising the risk of abuses and intensifying repression. Civil society leaders have likened the changes to the formal death of Salvadoran democracy.

3️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 Pakistan launches targeted operation against militants in Bajaur, displacing nearly 100,000: Pakistani security forces have begun a “targeted operation” against militant hideouts in Bajaur district, a former Pakistani Taliban stronghold on the Afghan border, prompting almost 100,000 residents to flee. Officials stressed the offensive, backed by helicopters, was limited in scope to avoid civilian casualties, with displaced families promised 50,000 rupees ($175) in compensation. Locals, many still recovering from the destruction of the 2009 military campaign in the area, voiced fears over their homes and safety. Authorities say Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters, sheltered in Afghanistan since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover, have re-entered Bajaur to launch attacks. The operation underscores Pakistan’s struggle to contain cross-border militancy despite past claims of victory in the region.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 Trump seizes control of DC police and deploys National Guard under ‘crime emergency’: On 11 August, President Donald Trump declared a “crime emergency” in Washington, DC, transferring authority over the Metropolitan Police to Attorney General Pam Bondi and ordering Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth to mobilise 800 National Guard troops. Trump vowed “historic action” to combat what he called an “epidemic of crime,” despite Justice Department data showing violent crime at a 30-year low and down 26% this year. Critics question the legal basis and motives, pointing to a high-profile assault case and Trump’s long history of stoking fear over crime. The emergency order lasts 30 days, though Trump may seek an extension. While legal latitude exists for deploying the DC Guard, opponents warn the move risks normalising military involvement in policing and increasing the potential for excessive force.

5️⃣ 🇨🇮 Ivory Coast opposition rallies against Ouattara’s fourth-term bid: Thousands gathered in Abidjan’s Yopougon district, demanding electoral reforms and denouncing President Alassane Ouattara’s decision to seek a fourth term. Protesters carried banners declaring “No true democracy without true justice” and voiced support for barred opposition leaders Laurent Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam. Both were excluded from October’s presidential race by the electoral commission — Gbagbo over legal restrictions and Thiam on nationality grounds — prompting opposition parties to unite against Ouattara. Critics accuse the president of undermining term limits after a 2016 constitutional change removed them, echoing trends among other West African leaders. The government has yet to comment, but Ouattara insists his leadership is vital amid rising jihadist threats from the Sahel and mounting economic pressures.

Daily Updates?

Want daily updates on the world of geopolitics as well as weekly?

Subscribe to our sister publication Geopolitics Daily here ⤵️

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

_{(Affiliate links)}