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📰 Germany's government collapses

📰 Germany's government collapses

and Trump pledges Ukraine peace

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 10, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his U.S. election victory, expressing openness to future talks. In Europe, Germany’s government has collapsed, adding to regional political uncertainty.

In Asia, tensions escalate as India, China, and Bangladesh clash over the Brahmaputra River, Myanmar edges closer to economic collapse, and Malaysia undertakes a substantial defence upgrade.

Meanwhile, peace talks for South Sudan are set to resume under Kenya’s guidance, aiming to stabilise the region amidst ongoing challenges.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Putin congratulates Trump, hints at Ukraine talks: Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the US presidential election and expressed his willingness to engage in talks with him. Speaking in Sochi, Putin acknowledged Trump’s election and voiced interest in his proposal to end the war in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Trump has pledged to resolve the conflict swiftly, though details of his plan remain unclear. Putin, while not outlining specific expectations for Trump’s second term, indicated that he was attentive to Trump’s desire to restore relations with Russia and address the Ukrainian crisis. When asked about his hopes for Trump’s presidency, Putin admitted uncertainty but noted that Trump’s approach was worth considering.

2️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar facing ‘total economic collapse’: In Myanmar’s Rakhine state, nearly two million people are at risk of starvation within months due to severe conflict, trade blockades, and an impending economic collapse, a UN official has warned. Bordering Bangladesh, Rakhine has seen income drop sharply, rice production fall, and food prices soar amid military-imposed restrictions that have cut off essential supplies, according to UNDP research. Many residents now survive on just one meal per day, with some resorting to consuming rice bran, typically used as animal feed. Kanni Wignaraja, UN assistant secretary-general, described the situation as unprecedented in Myanmar, cautioning that if trends continue into 2025, the humanitarian crisis will deepen. UNDP reports show incomes for over half of Rakhine’s households have dropped to levels barely enough for rice, excluding other basic needs, as the war rages on.

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 Germany’s government collapses: Germany's “traffic light” coalition, uniting the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP), has collapsed, plunging the country into political uncertainty. The coalition unravelled after a protracted standoff over the 2024 budget: Chancellor Olaf Scholz favoured increased debt-funded spending, citing pressures from the Ukraine conflict, while Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the FDP pushed for tax and spending cuts. Scholz’s dismissal of Lindner led the FDP to withdraw its ministers, leaving Scholz with a fragile minority government. Federal elections, originally set for late 2024, may now occur in spring. Scholz faces a confidence vote on January 15, while CDU leader Friedrich Merz demands an earlier date. Polls suggest a CDU-SPD "grand coalition" may be the likely outcome, as public support for the SPD, Greens, and FDP wanes.

4️⃣ 🇯🇴 🇮🇱 Jordan’s dilemma as Israel’s strategic buffer zone: The 1994 Wadi Araba Agreement between Israel and Jordan was intended to foster peace, but its legacy has been marred by Israeli expansion and Jordan's diminishing sovereignty. While the agreement envisioned mutual respect and dignity, its benefits have largely bypassed the Jordanian public, who view it as a "Agreement of Shame." Over 30 years, the terms have been violated, with Israeli aircraft crossing Jordanian airspace and the country increasingly seen as a buffer for Israeli security. The Hashemite Kingdom has struggled to assert its independence, as evidenced by its passive stance on Israeli military actions and the growing presence of NATO in Amman. Despite the idealistic promises of the agreement, Israel's ambitions in the region have overshadowed Jordan's interests, leaving the kingdom compromised and isolated.

5️⃣ 🇮🇪 🇿🇦 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Ireland joins South Africa’s genocide case against Israel: In December, South Africa submitted a case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), asserting that Israel's actions in Gaza violate the 1948 UN Genocide Convention—a charge Israel denies. Countries including Spain, Bolivia, Colombia, Mexico, Turkey, Chile, and Libya have joined the case. Ireland also pledged support after South Africa’s submission, with Foreign Minister Martin emphasising Ireland’s commitment to international law and the ICJ’s accountability work. South Africa’s filing, containing over 750 pages of text and more than 4,000 pages of exhibits, claims evidence of “genocide” in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks have killed 53 people and injured 161 in Lebanon in the past day, bringing total casualties since last October to 3,103 deaths and 13,856 injuries. UNESCO will meet on November 18 to discuss increased protection of Lebanon’s cultural heritage sites.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 WHAT A TRUMP PRESIDENCY COULD MEAN FOR THE MIDDLE EAST 🇱🇧 🇮🇷 🇸🇦

Background

The United States stands as the most influential force in the global system, uniquely capable of executing a truly international foreign policy and projecting power across nearly any region.

With the U.S. election concluded, the Middle East now watches to see if the new Trump administration will alter its course or reinforce the status quo. Much will depend on Trump’s choices for the three top foreign policy posts—Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and National Security Advisor—where loyalty to Trump is expected to weigh more heavily than policy uniformity.

Known for his assertive, unilateral approach, Trump may seek to craft a foreign policy that will impact four critical aspects of the Middle East landscape: Israel and its regional conflicts, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the region’s engagement with the UN and multilateral diplomacy.

Israel/Palestine and the War on Lebanon

Hawkish Israel Support: Trump has consistently shown strong support for Israel, labelling it a "cherished ally." His actions, including recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. Embassy there, and recognising Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, underscore this alignment. Trump has urged Israel to conclude its operations quickly, warning that prolonged conflict could erode international support. Meanwhile, the due processes of the ICJ and ICC are likely to face obstacles under a Trump presidency, given the certainty of ongoing diplomatic and political cover his administration will provide for Israel’s political and military leadership.

Peace to Prosperity Plan & Limiting Multilateral Involvement: Trump’s 2020 peace plan, “Peace to Prosperity,” excluded Palestinian leadership and acted more as Israel’s attorney. He defunded the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), displaying his lack of support for Palestinian autonomy in peace negotiations. In a new term, Trump is likely to continue sidelining Palestinians in peace negotiations and to express scepticism toward U.S. involvement in multilateral organisations like the UN, signalling his preference for unilateralism and alignment with Israel's sovereign interests.

Iran

“Maximum Pressure” Campaign & Prevention of Nuclear Capabilities: Trump’s Iran policy centres on isolation and sanction-heavy strategies, dubbing Iran the "leading state sponsor of terrorism," demonstrated through his torpedoing of the 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the assassination of IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani. Trump's position on Iran's nuclear ambitions emphasises prevention at all costs. During his term, he considered Iranian nuclear capabilities a direct threat, with “peace through strength” as his guiding policy. He repeatedly asserted that his administration’s sanctions left Iran economically weakened, pressured to negotiate or face heightened consequences.

Iranian Retaliation and Hybrid Tactics: With the heightened risk of escalations, Iran may shift to hybrid tactics like cyberattacks against U.S. interests. Trump’s first term saw a significant decline in diplomatic engagement, with broader sanctions aimed at impairing Iran’s allies such as Hizbollah. His strategy also positioned the U.S. military to respond quickly to Iranian provocations, which tacitly fostered regional instability.

Abraham Accords and Saudi Arabia

Abraham Accords Expansion: Trump pioneered the Abraham Accords—normalising relations between Israel and Morocco, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (with Sudan initially joining but recently signalling intentions to withdraw)—at substantial political cost to Palestine and Western Sahara. Trump has expressed continued support for further diplomatic efforts, aiming to expand normalisation with other regional actors, even suggesting engagement with Iran.

Saudi Relationship and Arms Sales: Trump maintained a strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia, approving extensive arms sales and defending Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s leadership, amid human rights concerns. He previously vetoed legislation intended to limit U.S. involvement in the Saudi-led conflict in Yemen, worsening humanitarian conditions and tacitly fast-tracking the Houthis' political ascendancy. This enabled the Houthis to position themselves to at-risk Yemeni populations as "legitimate defenders" of Yemeni sovereignty against foreign aggression.

Oil Supply Influence: Trump leveraged his relationship with Saudi Arabia to influence global oil markets, reportedly pressuring Riyadh to adjust production to stabilise prices during the Covid-19 pandemic. Given recent fluctuations in oil prices, Trump’s approach to securing Saudi loyalty could again prioritise economic collaboration over diplomatic restrictions.

The UN and Multilateralism

Reduced UN Involvement: Trump’s Middle East strategy suggests a bleak outlook for multilateral organisations—with minimal U.S. engagement in UN institutions highly likely—while maintaining the widely criticised use of veto power at the UN Security Council, aligning with the broader U.S. foreign policy status quo.

Unilateralism, U.S. exceptionalism: In contrast to multilateral diplomacy, Trump has historically prioritised unilateral approaches in his foreign policy, viewing unpredictability as a strategic advantage. His administration's withdrawal from agreements like the JCPOA epitomised this approach—prioritising direct influence over collective commitments with allies. This approach was grounded in his ontological commitment to U.S. exceptionalism, consistently asserting America's unique role in shaping global affairs, independent of international consensus, agreements, or frameworks.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 🇧🇩 India, China, and Bangladesh at loggerheads over Brahmaputra river: The 2,900-kilometre Brahmaputra River originates in Tibet, flows through India’s Arunachal Pradesh, and drains into the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh. It’s vital for all three nations: China relies on it for hydroelectric power, while India and Bangladesh depend on it for agriculture. China has built several hydropower plants on the Tibetan Plateau, including the Zangmu Dam, with plans for a massive ‘super dam’ on the river’s Great Bend. This has raised geopolitical tensions, as reduced downstream flow could impact India’s and Bangladesh’s water resources. A 2002 agreement for China to share hydrological data was suspended after the 2017 Doklam standoff, highlighting the river’s contentious role. Though experts argue the Brahmaputra’s natural flow limits upstream control, water security remains a concern amid climate change.

2️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇺🇸 U.S. issues $1.1bn in debt relief to Somalia: The U.S. has agreed to cancel over $1.1 billion of Somalia’s debt, representing about 25% of the nation’s remaining debt burden. This latest milestone is part of a series of debt relief efforts since Somalia began tackling its heavy financial liabilities, most of which accrued under the military rule of Siad Barre, which ended in the early 1990s. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud described the relief as crucial, lifting a “burden of unsustainable debt” accumulated during years of instability. U.S. Ambassador Richard Riley celebrated the agreement, highlighting Somalia’s economic reforms. This debt relief, part of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, has reduced Somalia’s debt from 64% of GDP in 2018 to under 6% by 2023. While Somalia can now access more public financing, some private lenders remain cautious due to governance and stability concerns.

3️⃣ 🇲🇾 Malaysia’s significant defence upgrade: After seven years of negotiations and deliberations, the Malaysian military has reportedly finalised its acquisition of Kuwait’s coveted F/A-18C/D Hornets, a notable addition to its limited Royal Air Force fleet. Outbidding both Tunisia and the U.S. Marine Corps, Malaysia’s new fleet marks a step forward in its regional defence aspirations. Historically reliant on Russian equipment, Malaysia’s fleet includes Su-30 fighter jets, but recent purchases, such as 18 FA-50s from South Korea, reflect its shift toward diversified defence suppliers. Domestic production is also a priority, as highlighted by the Aerospace Industry Blueprint 2030, aimed at boosting local aerospace manufacturing. While some question the need for ageing Hornets, Malaysia’s defence upgrades signal its ambition to grow as a significant Southeast Asian power despite budget constraints and potential maintenance challenges.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Settler violence threatens to unravel Palestine’s West Bank: Settler violence in the West Bank, where Israeli settlers intimidate, harm, and sometimes kill Palestinians while destroying property, has reached unprecedented levels. For decades, successive Israeli governments have tolerated this aggression, which surged after the election of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government in late 2022 and intensified following the 7 October Hamas-led attack. Hardline ministers now openly encourage these acts, framing them as self-defence, while settler land seizures continue unchecked. Although the U.S. and EU have sanctioned some violent settlers, these efforts largely ignore the Israeli state’s role in supporting settler expansion. Western governments, acknowledging that settlements contravene international law, could leverage economic and military aid to press Israel on this issue, according to independent observers. Without such pressure, settler violence risks escalating instability in the West Bank, further eroding prospects for Palestinian statehood.

5️⃣ 🇧🇼 Botswana elections sees BDP’s 58 year rule come to an end: In a surprising turn of events, voters in Botswana have ousted the long-dominant Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which has held power for nearly 60 years, electing an opposition coalition led by presidential candidate Duma Boko. The 54-year-old leader from the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) replaces President Mokgweetsi Masisi, who conceded defeat after his party suffered a historic loss. Masisi announced plans for a smooth transition, stating, "From tomorrow, I will start the process of handover." Chief Justice Terence Rannowane officially confirmed Boko's victory, praising the trust the electorate has placed in him. Boko committed to fulfilling his responsibilities, emphasising that the government belongs to the people. The UDC's ambitious platform includes proposals to more than double the minimum wage, enhance social services, and establish a more independent judiciary.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇴🇲 🇮🇷 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 Oman’s growing diplomatic clout: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have adeptly managed relations with global powers amid an increasingly multipolar world, yet Oman stands out for its unique diplomatic neutrality. Oman’s role as a valued mediator—especially between the U.S. and Iran, or Saudi Arabia and Iran—has solidified its importance in the region, particularly as tensions with Israel and Iran intensify. While other GCC countries aim to maintain regional stability, Oman’s neutrality is unmatched, making it a trusted partner for dialogue rather than merely a go-between. Muscat’s impartiality continues under Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq and is reinforced by practical ties, including recent joint exercises with Iran, highlighting its focus on stability in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman’s balanced foreign policy has strengthened its standing and exemplifies the GCC’s growing influence in Middle Eastern diplomacy.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇰🇪 South Sudan peace talks to resume, under Kenya’s supervision: Peace talks for South Sudan are set to resume following a directive from President Salva Kiir and Kenyan President William Ruto, who met on Wednesday and instructed the mediation team to reconvene within two weeks to address unresolved issues. The talks had stalled in July after long-serving political opponent of Salva Kiir—Riek Machar—withdrew his party citing concerns that mediators sought to replace the 2018 peace agreement that ended a five-year civil war. While the agreement remains incomplete, South Sudan postponed its 2023 elections to 2025 to implement key electoral processes. The Tumaini initiative—ongoing since May—seeks to include non-signatory groups to promote lasting peace. However, concerns have been raised over a controversial new security law allowing detention without warrants, drawing criticism from western diplomats and human rights groups. Meanwhile, South Sudan faces an economic crisis, with civil servants unpaid for nearly a year due to pipeline disruptions.