📰 A German split

and tensions rise in Congo

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
September 08, 2024

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Hello and welcome back!

This week in geopolitics, China has taken center stage, hosting a China-Africa summit with a $50 billion investment pledge to the continent, gifting military equipment to Cambodia, and clashing with Malaysia over South China Sea oil exploration.

In the Mediterranean, EU funding has been tied to human rights abuses against refugees in Lebanon and Cyprus, while a high-profile diplomatic exchange between Egypt and Turkey signals a thaw in previously strained relations.

Let’s get into it ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 UN experts call for deployment of peacekeepers in Sudan: UN experts have urged the immediate deployment of peacekeepers in Sudan and the expansion of an arms embargo to protect civilians from severe abuses in the country’s civil war. A UN fact-finding mission, based on 182 interviews, accused the Sudanese army (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of rape, torture, and arbitrary arrests, which may amount to war crimes. The mission also reported indiscriminate airstrikes on civilian targets. Mission chair Mohamed Chande Othman called for swift intervention, suggesting a UN or African Union-backed force. Earlier claims accused the RSF of ethnic cleansing in West Darfur and Al Jazirah, with an estimated 10,000–15,000 deaths. Despite efforts, Sudan's government has not responded to the mission, though the RSF indicated a willingness to cooperate.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 Climate change costing African nations up to 5% of their annual GDP, says report: African nations are losing up to 5% of their GDP annually due to the disproportionate impact of climate change, according to a report released last week, following one of the continent's hottest years on record. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlighted that many African countries are allocating up to 9% of their budgets to climate adaptation efforts. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that Africa has experienced a warming trend over the past 60 years, outpacing the global average and impacting everything from food security to public health and stability. Despite contributing less than 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions, Africa remains the most vulnerable region to extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves. The report, which focuses on 2023—one of the three hottest years recorded in Africa—urges African governments to invest in early warning systems and meteorological services. Without adequate action, up to 118 million Africans could face increased exposure to droughts, floods, and extreme heat by 2030.

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 AfD’s rise reflects Germany’s East-West political rift: After the Berlin Wall fell in November 1989, former West German Chancellor Willy Brandt optimistically predicted that reunification would allow “what belongs together to grow together.” However, 35 years later, that vision seems increasingly distant. Recent election results from Thuringia and Saxony reveal a widening divide between Germany’s eastern and western regions. The far-right, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is gaining significant traction, particularly in the east. Polls suggest that if federal elections were held tomorrow, the AfD could become the second-strongest party in the Bundestag. In the eastern states, the AfD is making significant inroads; in Thuringia, under Björn Höcke, the party topped a state election for the first time, securing at least 30% of the vote. In the west, the AfD’s influence remains limited, with established parties like the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintaining their lead. However, in Saxony, the AfD is in a close race with the CDU, and in Brandenburg, it is expected to become the strongest party. While traditional parties have so far managed to block the AfD from gaining a majority, the party's rise as a dominant regional force raises serious questions about Germany’s political identity and how it will address the growing influence of far-right populism.

4️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇹🇷 President al-Sisi visits Ankara, signalling thaw in Egypt-Turkiye relations: The presidents of Türkiye and Egypt found common ground on the Gaza conflict this week, emphasising the need for a permanent ceasefire and uninterrupted humanitarian aid. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi discussed the issue during al-Sisi's first official visit to Ankara, as the two nations work to repair long-strained relations. Erdogan stated, "Türkiye and Egypt share the same stance on the Palestinian issue," underscoring the urgency of ending the 11-month conflict, establishing a lasting ceasefire, and ensuring the flow of humanitarian aid. This meeting follows Erdogan's February visit to Egypt—the first in over a decade—after the nations restored diplomatic ties. Ankara has since softened its criticism of al-Sisi's government in an effort to strengthen relations and attract investments amid economic challenges. This trip marks al-Sisi's first visit to Türkiye since his election in 2014, following his role in the military ousting of Morsi.

5️⃣ 🇰🇿 🇮🇶 OPEC delays production increase plan: OPEC+ members have postponed a planned increase of 180,000 barrels per day in October, part of a strategy to gradually return 2.2 million barrels per day to the market in the coming months. The 2.2 million bpd reduction was a voluntary short-term cut by eight alliance members. Two OPEC+ sources, speaking anonymously due to the sensitive nature of the discussions, confirmed the two-month delay in production hikes. Oil prices have been pressured by sluggish post-COVID-19 demand recovery in China, the world's second-largest economy and top crude importer. On the supply side, Iraq and Kazakhstan—key OPEC+ members—have consistently exceeded their production quotas and plan additional output cuts to balance these overages by September 2025. Meanwhile, disruptions in Libya's oil production, which stands at nearly 1.2 million bpd, further complicate the market outlook, as uncertainty looms over whether the country’s political crisis will be resolved soon or persist long term.

Major Story

🇨🇩🇷🇼 129 KILLED IN ATTEMPTED DRC PRISON BREAK, AS RWANDA RELATIONS FURTHER DETERIORATE

Authorities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) reported that at least 129 people were killed during a failed escape attempt from Kinshasa's Makala prison. The incident occurred on Monday amidst a fire that engulfed the prison's administrative buildings, including the infirmary.

Interior Minister Shabani Lukoo stated on X that the provisional death toll includes 24 individuals who were shot after warnings were issued. Additionally, around 59 people were injured.

The prison, which holds approximately 14,000 to 15,000 detainees, many of whom are awaiting trial, has seen previous jailbreaks, including a major incident in 2017 when over 4,000 prisoners escaped following an armed attack.

Proxy Conflict with Rwanda

Amid the aftermath of the Makala prison break attempt, Kinshasa has intensified accusations against Rwanda—alleging violations of sovereignty, civilian atrocities, and breaches of international law—in the ongoing eastern Congo conflict. President Félix Tshisekedi, supported by U.S. and U.N. experts, claims Rwanda is backing the M23 rebel group militarily.

Rwanda has denied these allegations but acknowledged in February that it deployed troops and missile systems in eastern Congo, citing security threats from a buildup of Congolese forces near the border.

This legal action follows efforts by Congolese Deputy Minister of Justice Samuel Mbemba to press the court on the matter. Rwanda is also facing charges before the African Court on Human and Peoples' Rights.

The DRC is demanding accountability and urging the International Criminal Court (ICC) to accelerate its investigation into Rwanda's actions. The government has launched a "Justice for the DRC" campaign to advocate for victims' rights and raise awareness.

Eastern Congo remains engulfed in violence, with over 120 armed groups clashing for control of land and resources. The conflict has resulted in arbitrary killings and widespread sexual abuse, especially in North Kivu province.

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1️⃣ 🇨🇳 Beijing promises $50 billion investment in Africa: Chinese President Xi Jinping committed over $50 billion in financing for Africa over the next three years, with a focus on infrastructure and trade cooperation. Speaking at Beijing's largest summit since the pandemic, Xi addressed more than 50 African leaders and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at the China-Africa forum. African leaders have already secured multiple agreements this week, spanning infrastructure, agriculture, mining, trade, and energy. Xi called this period the "best" in China-Africa relations, expressing China's readiness to enhance collaboration in key sectors. He announced that the $50.7 billion in funding will be split between credit, $11 billion in various forms of assistance, and $10 billion through Chinese investments. Xi also pledged to help create at least one million jobs across Africa. UN chief Guterres praised the growing partnership, highlighting China's development success as a model that could help drive Africa's renewable energy future.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇱🇧 🇨🇾 EU Funding linked to human rights violations of refugees in Lebanon and Cyprus: European aid intended to manage sea migration to Lebanon is funding practices that violate human rights, according to a Human Rights Watch report published Wednesday. The report details how Cyprus forcibly returned Syrian refugees to Lebanon, where Lebanese authorities subsequently deported them. Interviews with 16 Syrians who attempted to leave Lebanon revealed that 15 experienced abuses by Lebanese and/or Cypriot authorities. Lebanon, hosting around 775,000 registered Syrian refugees, is the highest per capita refugee host. The EU has provided Lebanon €16.7 million from 2020 to 2023 for border management, with an additional €32 million allocated through 2025. Despite this, officials from both Lebanon and Cyprus deny violating human rights, citing migration pressures.

3️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇷🇺 Sanctioned Russian oligarchs permitted to invest in UK North Sea oil producer: The government is facing mounting criticism after allowing a company linked to two sanctioned Russian oligarchs to acquire a stake in the UK’s largest North Sea oil producer. The investment firm LetterOne, co-owned by oligarchs Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven, has secured nearly 15% of Aberdeen-based Harbour Energy. Critics argue that sanctioned individuals should not have stakes in critical national assets. Although LetterOne itself is not sanctioned, it received shares in Harbour following Harbour's £8.5 billion acquisition of German firm Wintershall, which was partly owned by LetterOne. The shares in Wintershall were exchanged for those in Harbour, which has criticised the government's windfall tax. The deal is expected to increase Harbour's oil and gas production by 500,000 barrels per day. Under the deal’s terms, LetterOne, chaired by former banker and Labour minister Mervyn Davies, will earn dividends from Harbour's profits.

4️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇮🇱 Britain suspends certain military exports to Israel: The UK announced the suspension of certain military equipment exports to Israel, signalling increased public criticism of its ally over the conduct of its ongoing war in Gaza, which has resulted in over 40 thousand Palestinian deaths. Israel’s military tactics have drawn growing international scrutiny as the civilian death toll rises and humanitarian aid efforts are obstructed—destroying much of Gaza in the process—prompting the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to find the plausible facilitation of genocide. The UK government, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, suspended around 30 of its 350 export licences for military goods to Israel, citing concerns that these items could be used in ways that violate international law.

5️⃣ 🇲🇾 🇨🇳 Malaysia and China at odds over South China Sea oil exploration plans: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated Thursday that Malaysia will not yield to China's demands to halt its oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea, affirming that the activities are within Malaysia's territorial waters. Anwar emphasised that Malaysia would maintain its position despite China's protest in February, which accused Kuala Lumpur of infringing on Chinese territory. Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry is investigating the recent leak of the diplomatic protest note, which was published by a Filipino news outlet on August 29. "We have no intention of being provocative or hostile. China is a close friend, but we must secure our economic interests, including drilling for oil in our waters," Anwar said during a televised news conference from Russia, where he is on an official visit. Several nations, including Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Taiwan, contest Beijing's broad claims over the South China Sea. While Malaysia prefers diplomatic engagement and avoids public confrontations with China—unlike the Philippines—it remains vigilant, as Chinese coast guard ships have occasionally entered its waters. Malaysia is also mindful of its strong economic ties, with China being its largest trading partner since 2009.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇰🇭 🇨🇳 Beijing gifts Phnom Penh two warships and funds construction of naval base: Cambodia's Defense Ministry announced that China will provide its navy with two Type 56 corvettes, similar to those docked for months at the strategically important Ream Naval Base, which is being expanded with Beijing's support. The base's expansion has fueled concerns over a potential permanent Chinese naval presence in the Gulf of Thailand. Ministry spokeswoman Maly Socheata confirmed the delivery of the new warships by next year but declined to address reports that China may hand over expanded facilities at Ream, including a pier for larger vessels. She noted the final phase of construction is nearing completion. The U.S. and others have expressed concern that a Chinese naval base at Ream would give China access to the Malacca Strait, a crucial shipping route. Worries grew after two corvettes began docking at the newly built pier in December. Beyond military projects, China funds major infrastructure in Cambodia, including airports, roads, and private developments, with 40% of Cambodia's $11 billion foreign debt owed to China.

🇱🇧 Former Central Bank governor and alleged architect of Lebanon’s financial crisis detained in Beirut: Lebanon's former central bank governor, Riad Salameh, was arrested after a hearing at Palais Justice, according to Lebanese state media. Salameh, who led the Banque du Liban for 30 years, faced mounting allegations of financial misconduct, including illicit enrichment from public funds in Lebanon and abroad. He is also wanted by French authorities, with Interpol having issued "red notices" against him, though Lebanon does not extradite its citizens. Salameh is widely blamed by the Lebanese public for the crippling financial crisis that began in 2019. Salameh was interrogated over various financial issues, including claims that he hired the company Optimum to manipulate financial statements and conceal Lebanon's financial losses. Two judicial sources informed Reuters that Salameh is accused of amassing over $110 million through financial crimes involving Optimum Invest, a Lebanese brokerage firm, with charges including embezzlement, money laundering, and fraud related to commissions earned through the central bank's dealings with Optimum between 2015 and 2018. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati stated that the government would not intervene in the case.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Netanyahu plays down likelihood of a ceasefire deal: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that a cease-fire and hostage release agreement is “not close,” as both sides remain divided on key issues, including Israel's military presence in Gaza. “Hamas is not ready for a deal. There’s no deal in sight,” Netanyahu said in an interview. “They want to rebuild their terror regime, and unfortunately, it's far from happening.” Meanwhile, bombs continue to rain down on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Gaza, and the Israelis protest the government's inability to strike a hostage deal. Israel and Hamas are particularly at odds over the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow land strip along Egypt's border, which Israeli forces captured in May. Netanyahu insists on retaining control, while Hamas demands their withdrawal.