Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 German elections shake EU

📰 German elections shake EU

and Israel expands buffer zone

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 02, 2025

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This week in the Middle East, Israeli Defence Minister Katz announced that forces will continue operations in the West Bank for another year. Meanwhile, Israel has demanded the "full demilitarisation" of southern Syria as Damascus' caretaker government convenes a national dialogue conference.

Elsewhere, as the Ukraine war enters its fourth year, the UN Security Council has called for peace—despite the U.S. unexpectedly pushing for an alternative resolution that omitted criticism of Russia.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇪🇺 German elections see resounding win for Christian Democrats, AfD: Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc, comprising the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), secured a decisive win in Germany’s national election with 28.5% of the vote, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a record 20.7%, shaking Europe’s political landscape. Merz, set to become Germany’s next chancellor, aims to swiftly form a government, likely in coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), after smaller parties like the Free Democrats (FDP) failed to enter parliament. Merz has distanced himself from former Chancellor Angela Merkel, adopting a harder stance on key issues and vowing to strengthen Europe’s autonomy following Donald Trump’s recent comments on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the SPD suffered its worst electoral performance in over a century, highlighting widespread dissatisfaction with the outgoing government and signalling a shift in Germany’s political direction.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇷🇼 🇨🇩 UK government to suspend aid, threatens sanctions on Rwanda over M23 support: The UK government has announced it will halt participation in Rwandan-hosted events and suspend most aid to the country over its support for M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Britain also warned of possible sanctions, citing UN reports that Kigali-backed fighters, reinforced by 4,000 Rwandan troops, have seized Goma and Bukavu in their push for control of the mineral-rich eastern DRC. The UK’s Foreign Office called for an end to hostilities, humanitarian access, and Rwanda’s military withdrawal from Congolese territory, pausing trade promotion and defence cooperation. Rwanda insists it is acting in self-defence, accusing the DRC of harbouring perpetrators of the 1994 genocide, while M23 claims to protect Tutsis from persecution—though analysts suggest it may be seeking power in Kinshasa.

3️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇧🇩 🇮🇳 Pakistan, Bangladesh pursue regional realignment, boost bilateral ties: The 2024 political shift in Bangladesh is reshaping South Asian geopolitical dynamics, with Dhaka strengthening ties with Pakistan while relations with India sour. The interim government of Muhammad Yunus has distanced itself from New Delhi, rejecting Indian interference and fostering closer cooperation with Islamabad, as seen in growing defence collaboration and economic engagement. Concurrently, Bangladesh’s pivot towards China, driven by economic incentives under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), further complicates India’s security calculus, raising fears of a Bangladesh-China-Pakistan strategic alignment. New Delhi may seek U.S. backing to counter this emerging bloc, but Washington’s pressure on Dhaka to curb ties with Beijing is unlikely to succeed.

4️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 Imprisoned Kurdistan Workers’ Party leader calls for group’s dissolution: Imprisoned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan has urged the group to lay down arms and disband, citing Türkiye’s democratic reforms and shifting regional dynamics. His statement, read by pro-Kurdish politicians after a visit to his Imrali Island prison, was broadcast across Kurdish-majority cities. While Syrian Kurdish groups affiliated with the PKK expressed agreement, Turkish officials warned that any factions resisting disarmament would face military action. The Turkish government’s engagement with Ocalan is seen as part of a broader strategy to neutralize the Kurdish issue amid rising regional tensions.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli troops will continue operating in West Bank for another year, says Katz: Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz announced that troops would remain newly seized parts of the occupied West Bank for at least a year, preventing tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians from returning. Since 21 January, Israeli forces have conducted an extensive assault across the northern West Bank, escalating operations with tanks near Jenin for the first time since 2002. The raids have killed dozens, including children, and forced over 40,000 people to flee, according to the UN. Meanwhile, Netanyahu faces pressure from far-right coalition partners to intensify military action, as Israeli settlers continue attacks in Palestinian areas. More than 800 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since October 2023.

Major Story

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇳 UKRAINE WAR ENTERS FOURTH YEAR AS SECURITY COUNCIL CALLS FOR PEACE

In the early hours of February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. After failing to achieve a quick victory, the conflict has dragged on for three years, evolving into a war of attrition marked by heavy casualties, widespread destruction, shifting front lines and one of the fastest-growing refugee crises.

Rosemary DiCarlo, UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, addressed the Security Council, warning that Russia’s ongoing attacks continue to undermine global stability. She highlighted a worsening humanitarian situation, citing the destruction of healthcare and education systems, the mistreatment of prisoners of war, and an escalating conflict that now affects Russian territory. She also raised concerns over nuclear safety risks, referencing a recent drone strike near the Chernobyl reactor site.

Food Insecurity Deepens Amid Prolonged Conflict

As the war drags on, millions of Ukrainians face worsening food shortages. The World Food Programme (WFP) reports that five million people are food insecure, particularly in frontline regions. In Kherson, over half the population struggles with severe hunger, while two in five face similar conditions in Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk. Many families are forced to ration meals, skip food, or incur debt just to survive. Despite ongoing aid efforts, WFP officials stress that humanitarian relief remains a crucial lifeline for millions.

Security Council Adopts Resolution Calling for Peace

In a significant diplomatic move, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2774, a US-drafted proposal urging an end to hostilities. Although amendments proposed by Russia were rejected, the resolution signals a shift in Washington’s approach under the new administration. US Ambassador Dorothy Shea called it a “crucial first step” toward a lasting peace. However, Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia expressed skepticism, arguing that Western nations continue to distort peace efforts for political gain.

While the resolution reflects renewed diplomatic efforts, the road to peace remains uncertain. The deep-seated geopolitical rifts and the ongoing humanitarian crisis highlight the challenges of achieving a sustainable resolution to the war.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Netanyahu demands ‘full demilitarization’ of southern Syria: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel would not permit Syrian military forces to operate south of Damascus, calling for the full demilitarization of Quneitra, Daraa, and Suwayda, vowing to prevent the entry of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or the new Syrian army into the area. Following Bashar al-Assad’s ousting last December, Israel has expanded its presence into a UN-designated buffer zone between the occupied Golan Heights and southern Syria. Despite a 1974 ceasefire agreement mandating demilitarization, Israeli forces have moved into the zone, establishing military posts and conducting airstrikes. Netanyahu stated that Israeli troops would remain in the area indefinitely to counter perceived threats, including to the Druze community, many of whom oppose Israeli expansion into southwestern Syria.

2️⃣ 🇨🇴 ELN clashes with security forces as Cúcuta imposes curfew: Northern Colombia is bracing for further bloodshed as conflict between rival armed groups spreads into urban centres. In Cúcuta, a city of one million, the mayor imposed a 48-hour curfew after National Liberation Army (ELN) fighters attacked police stations and detonated car bombs. The violence, which has displaced over 122,000 people, is the latest setback for President Gustavo Petro’s struggling peace efforts. Fighting in the Catatumbo region has killed at least 80 people and displaced 50,000 since mid-January, while separate clashes in the Amazon and Chocó have heightened fears of nationwide instability. Colombia’s rights ombudsman reports that armed groups have surged from 141 in 2022 to 184 in 2024, as criminal factions fight for control of drug trafficking and contraband.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 Syria holds national dialogue conference: The Syrian National Dialogue Conference, held in Damascus, concluded with a final statement declaring all armed groups—including Kurdish-majority SDF—illegal and reaffirming Syria’s territorial integrity. The statement called for drafting a provisional constitution, forming an interim legislative council, and establishing a constitutional committee to create a permanent constitution. It also condemned Israeli incursions, urged international action to end violations, and demanded the lifting of sanctions hindering reconstruction efforts. Additional priorities included judicial reforms, political inclusivity, economic revitalization, public sector modernization, and strengthening civil society, education, and dialogue to ensure national stability and development.