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This week, the UN Security Council approved humanitarian exemptions to sanctions regimes, and Taiwan raised its ‘combat readiness’ in response to increased Chinese naval activity. In the Middle East, the Lebanon–Israel ceasefire remains fragile, a Gaza ceasefire remains elusive, and analysts express caution over HTS’s expanding control in Syria. Meanwhile, the situations in Ukraine, Sudan, and Myanmar continue to deteriorate.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇷 🇶🇦 🇹🇷 Assad’s prime minister hands power to rebel administration: The ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has marked a turning point after 13 years of civil war and over five decades of Assad family rule. On Monday, Assad’s prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, announced plans to transfer power to the rebel-led Salvation Government following a swift rebel offensive that seized Damascus and forced Assad to flee to Russia. Regional powers, including Qatar and Iran, have begun engaging with the new leadership, while the U.S. and European nations assess the implications of this seismic shift. Although Syrians remain hopeful for stability, challenges loom, including rebuilding a war-ravaged nation, managing lingering militant threats, and reintegrating millions of displaced citizens. Meanwhile, Israel’s military actions in Syria and Saudi Arabia’s warnings about regional instability underscore the fragile nature of the transition.

2️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan initiates ‘combat readiness’ over Chinese warship activity: Taiwan’s military remains on high alert following the detection of Chinese warships and coast guard vessels near the island, Taipei announced Monday, as Beijing pledged to "firmly defend" its sovereignty. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) stated that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) also imposed airspace restrictions off China’s coast. Speculation has mounted over potential Chinese military drills in reaction to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s Pacific tour, which included stops in Hawaii and Guam. In response, Taiwan initiated combat readiness exercises, taking into account enemy threats and tactical positioning. The MND confirmed PLA naval formations from multiple theater commands operating near the Taiwan Strait and Western Pacific, prompting heightened vigilance, particularly on Taiwan’s outlying islands.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Israel launches 480 airstrikes on Syria, seeks ‘sterile defence zone’: Israel’s defence minister has announced plans to establish a “sterile defence zone” in southern Syria following a wave of airstrikes and territorial advances after President Bashar al-Assad’s removal. Israeli forces recently entered the demilitarised zone, seizing an abandoned Syrian military post on Mount Hermon, overlooking Damascus. Defence Minister Israel Katz stated the zone would deter terrorism but would not involve a permanent Israeli presence. Over the past 48 hours, the Israeli military conducted around 480 strikes on critical Syrian military infrastructure, described as the largest air operation in its history. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, these strikes targeted airports, aircraft, radars, signal stations, and weapons depots across multiple governorates, devastating key military sites amid the ongoing security vacuum.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar regime change elusive as conflict escalates: Myanmar’s ongoing conflict, sparked by the military coup in 2021, has intensified over the past year. Since October 2023, the Brotherhood Alliance—comprising the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Arakan Army—has made significant territorial gains in Shan State. At the same time, People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) linked to the exiled National Unity Government have ramped up resistance nationwide. The Tatmadaw—Myanmar’s military—is increasingly strained, battling on multiple fronts, including anti-coup offensives in central Anyar near Mandalay and Naypyidaw. However, claims of its imminent collapse are likely exaggerated. While ethnic groups loosely collaborate with the PDFs against the junta, their focus on autonomy rather than national democracy suggests the conflict may grind into a prolonged stalemate.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇺🇸 🇨🇭 UNSC to make humanitarian concessions for sanction regimes: The United Nations Security Council has taken a significant step to support humanitarian efforts worldwide by adopting Resolution 2664, which creates a carveout for humanitarian work in all UN sanctions regimes. This resolution, co-sponsored by Switzerland and the United States, extends indefinitely to the UN 1267 ISIL and Al-Qaida sanctions regime, potentially impacting hundreds of humanitarian providers active in 30 countries where sanctioned individuals and entities operate. The measure aims to provide legal clarity and protection for humanitarian workers while maintaining the integrity of sanctions, ensuring that aid reaches those in need without benefiting sanctioned actors.

Major Story

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 THE UKRAINE WAR: POSSIBILITIES FOR RESOLUTION?

The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, with both sides entrenched in an attritional conflict. Russia's strategy focuses on military escalation, aiming for territorial gains, while Ukraine, supported by the West, maintains fierce resistance. However, Western fatigue is palpable, and the U.S. under Donald Trump has signaled reduced support, raising questions about the war’s trajectory, writes Toda Peace Institute’s Herbert Wulf.

Negotiation Ripeness and Frozen Conflict

Political scientist William Zartman’s theory of “ripeness” suggests negotiations succeed when adversaries recognize a stalemate. Neither Russia nor Ukraine currently perceives this, though logistical strains and irreplaceable losses may eventually push both toward talks. Wulf surmises that a possible outcome could mirror Korea’s armistice of 1953: a ceasefire that freezes the conflict but leaves territorial disputes unresolved. This “Korean solution” would halt immediate destruction while allowing Ukraine to pursue democratic and economic growth, albeit under continuous threat.

Challenges to Lasting Peace

Critics of a frozen conflict cite risks of future hostilities and entrenched militarization, as seen on the Korean Peninsula. A binding peace deal, ensuring mutual security and territorial agreements, remains improbable given the intractable positions of both Russia and Ukraine. Neutral states like India or Switzerland might mediate, but any imposed compromise risks fueling partisan resistance within Ukraine.

Path Forward

While a complete military victory or a fair peace remains unlikely, a frozen conflict offers a pragmatic, if imperfect, respite. Ending active warfare, even temporarily, could prevent further devastation and create space for eventual resolution.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇹🇩 🇸🇳 France begins Chad withdrawal, Senegal voices anti-French sentiment: France has begun withdrawing its military forces from Chad, with two Mirage fighter jets departing N'Djamena for their base in eastern France, marking the initial phase of the pullout. This follows Chad’s surprise decision on November 28 to terminate its defence cooperation agreement with Paris, despite being a key Western ally in combating Islamist militants in the region. While details of the withdrawal, including whether any French troops will remain, are still under discussion, the departure signals the end of decades-long French military involvement in the Sahel. France has already withdrawn forces from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger amid military coups and rising anti-French sentiment, leaving about 1,000 troops in Chad as a drawdown timeline is being finalised.

2️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇰🇷 Pyongyang calls South Korea a ‘dictatorship’ over martial law attempt, police raid Yoon’s office: North Korea has responded to the political unrest in South Korea, with state media accusing President Yoon Suk Yeol of unleashing a “dictatorship on the people” after his failed attempt to impose martial law. Analysts suggest Pyongyang aims to exploit the turmoil in the South to bolster its own agenda, despite the irony of highlighting unrest in another authoritarian system. Meanwhile, South Korean police raided the office of President Yoon Suk Yeol over his role in declaring martial law last week – a move that plunged Asia’s fourth-biggest economy into crisis and caused alarm among its allies.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇲🇲 China establishes private security company in Myanmar: China is partnering with Myanmar’s military junta to create a joint security company aimed at safeguarding Chinese investments and personnel in the country. This move reflects Beijing’s growing unease over the safety of projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a critical component of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The corridor provides China direct access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the vulnerable Malacca Strait, yet much of it passes through conflict zones where Chinese assets face frequent attacks. Critics argue the venture undermines Myanmar’s sovereignty, as the junta’s 2008 constitution prohibits foreign troop deployment, with Beijing strategically framing the initiative as a private company to sidestep accusations of intervention. The joint venture signals declining confidence in the junta’s ability to secure Chinese interests as its military loses ground to pro-democracy forces.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.” – Leon Trotsky

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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