Hello and welcome back!

This week's issue sees the commencement of Israel's assault on Rafah, alongside key geopolitical updates from Sudan, Chad, and Ukraine.

Significant developments regarding policymakers in the UN and Washington concerning Palestinian self-determination, Chinese President Xi's recent visit to Europe, and insights from Georgia, Fiji, and Peru also hit the headlines.

Let’s get into it ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇸🇩 Urgency for intervention in Sudan’s West Darfur: El Fasher, besieged by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), teeters on the ‘precipice of a massacre’ as new revelations of ethnic cleansing and war crimes elsewhere in Darfur emerge. Human rights groups have appealed to the international community to take urgent action, including sanctions against the RSF paramilitary group responsible for the atrocities. Tirana Hassan, Executive Director at Human Rights Watch (HRW), issues a stark warning of impending disaster, emphasising the critical need for intervention: “As the UN Security Council and governments awaken to the looming disaster in El Fasher, the large-scale atrocities committed in El Geneina should serve as a reminder of the horrors that could unfold without concerted action.” Witness testimonies detail the RSF's relentless year-long campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Masalit tribe in West Darfur, highlighting the urgent necessity for immediate international response.

2️⃣🇪🇺🇨🇳 President Xi’s trip to Europe: Chinese President Xi Jinping has concluded a five-day tour of Europe, visiting France, Serbia, and Hungary, where he emphasised Beijing’s vision of a multipolar world and discussed trade, investments, and Russia’s conflict in Ukraine. This marked Xi’s first trip to Europe in five years, strategically aligning with significant anniversaries in China's diplomatic relations with the visited nations. Analysts suggest Xi aimed to advocate for reduced U.S. dominance while addressing escalating trade tensions with the European Union, including threats of European tariffs and investigations into Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles. The visit underscored China's efforts to expand its economic presence in Serbia and Hungary. During Xi’s two-day trip to France, Macron urged the Chinese leader to address Beijing’s trade imbalances with the EU and to use his influence with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. However, Xi seemed to have made few concessions.

3️⃣🇹🇩 Elections in Chad: On May 9, Chad's election commission declared Mahamat Idriss Déby the winner of the presidential election, succeeding his father who ruled for 30 years. Despite Chad's stability amid regional turmoil, political tensions persist as Déby's main rival also claims victory. Déby has prioritised security, strengthening ties with neighbouring countries and forming new partnerships with nations like the UAE, Hungary, and Russia. Internal divisions between pro-Russian and pro-Western factions raise concerns, amid calls for a more inclusive government. The credibility of the elections has been questioned due to uncertainty surrounding transparency and adherence to democratic principles, which International Crisis Group cites as 'essential for national reconciliation.'

4️⃣🇬🇪 Georgia protests against pro-Moscow legislation: Opposition to Georgia’s contentious "foreign agent" bill intensifies, as tens of thousands of Georgians gathered in Tbilisi to express concerns about its potential impact on media and civil society. Washington has cautioned that any move toward Russian-style authoritarianism would prompt a reevaluation of the U.S.-Georgia relationship, labelling it as harmful and warning against its enactment, stating it could undermine Georgia's aspirations for alignment with the EU. Chanting slogans like "Yes Europe!" and "No to 'the Russian law,'" demonstrators converged at three different locations across the capital city, while details on security force pushback remain limited.

5️⃣🇷🇺🇺🇦 Putin sworn in for a fifth term amidst fighting in Kharkiv: As Vladimir Putin begins his fifth term as Russia's President, intense clashes persist on the outskirts of Ukraine's Kharkiv region. Moscow claims to have captured five villages, while Kyiv asserts its resistance and efforts to regain control. The armoured incursion by Russia, initiated early Friday, may indicate a broader offensive or a diversion from the overstretched Ukrainian forces in the east. Kyiv has been on the defensive for months as Russian troops advance, mainly in the Donetsk region, exploiting Ukrainian troop and ammunition shortages. Despite this, Kharkiv's governor reports ongoing active combat in all five frontier villages, warning of potential escalation and reinforcement of enemy forces.

Major Story

🇮🇱🇵🇸 IDF launches assault on Rafah, after rejecting ceasefire deal

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) instructed residents to evacuate central Rafah early on Saturday morning, via leaflets and messages on social media. Analysts said this suggested Israeli forces would advance into the centre of Rafah as early as Sunday, and were likely to continue through the entire city.

Interviews from the ground paint a harrowing picture of fear and desperation, with residents—many of whom have been displaced multiple times since October—expressing profound concerns for their safety and the well-being of their loved ones. "No one can protect us from the bombing," lamented Rafah resident Al-Sufi, reflecting on the indiscriminate attacks that spared no area. 

The scene on the roads leading out of Rafah was chaotic, with crowded columns of people of all ages and conditions, cramming into vehicles, carts, and even walking under the blistering sun, carrying their belongings.

Since the IDF ordered the evacuation of eastern neighbourhoods and seized the border crossing with Egypt, over 150,000 people have fled Rafah in one of the largest displacements in months. This operation was described by the IDF as a "precise, limited operation" aimed at stopping arms-smuggling activities by Hamas. 

Despite U.S. President Joe Biden's declaration that a Rafah invasion would cross a "red line,” the Israeli army continued its incursion. The attack appears to be a precursor to a wider assault, and has been responded to with calls for restraint from the UN, humanitarian agencies, and traditional allies.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has thus far rejected external pressure to hold off a full-scale attack on Rafah, saying that Hamas has stationed most of its top leaders and remaining forces there, leading the Biden administration to pause delivery of 3,500 bombs. Last week Netanyahu said that Israel would “stand alone” and fight with “fingernails” if necessary.

This comes days after Hamas notified Qatari and Egyptian mediators of its acceptance of their proposal for a new Gaza ceasefire and complete hostage release agreement with Israel. Netanyahu remarked that the proposal accepted by Hamas fell short of Israel's fundamental requirements, although negotiations would persist.

Via X (formerly Twitter), Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg suggested that Israel's offensive in Rafah is primarily a political manoeuvre aimed at satisfying Netanyahu's domestic base. Goldberg predicts that a deal will likely be reached within the week, potentially by Israel's Independence Day, as Netanyahu seeks to navigate growing domestic opposition to the war. 

TIME’s Ian Lustick has highlighted the inherent limitations of military force in resolving Israel's political issues, arguing that the ostensible objectives of the so-called "Operation Swords of Iron''—complete defeat of Hamas and liberation of all hostages—are simply unattainable through military means alone, emphasising the need for diplomatic intervention to end the conflict. Lustick also pointed out that Israel’s historic conflicts have only ever ended only when pressure from larger powers—such as the U.S.—forces de-escalation.

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Other News

🇫🇯 Fijian former Prime Minister jailed: Former Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama has been sentenced to a year in prison for perverting the course of justice, following an appeal by the country’s director of public prosecutions. Supporters of his FijiFirst party gathered outside the high court in Suva after the appeal was upheld. Despite the ruling, Bainimarama remains the party leader, as confirmed by Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, a former attorney general. Bainimarama, who came to power in a 2006 bloodless coup, was found guilty this month by the high court of attempting to pervert justice while prime minister. He led Fiji for 16 years until losing an election in December 2022.

🇺🇸🇧🇪 U.S. Senators threaten ICC prosecutor over reports of arrest warrants for Israeli government officials: Republican senators reportedly issued a stark warning to International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Karim Khan, threatening personal repercussions for him, his family, and his court staff should he pursue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior military officials. The letter, obtained by Zeteo, was sent by 12 members of Congress on April 24. They cautioned Khan of severe sanctions if he proceeds with warrants against the Israeli leadership, citing it as a threat to both Israeli and U.S. sovereignty. The senators vowed retaliation against Khan, his staff, and associates if Israel is targeted, including imposing sanctions and barring them from entering the U.S. The letter ominously concludes with "You have been warned."

🇵🇪 Corruption inquiries against Peruvian President’s brother and lawyer: Police in Peru have detained President Dina Boluarte's brother and lawyer as part of a corruption inquiry, following a previous raid on her home. Boluarte's brother Nicanor and lawyer Mateo Castañeda were placed under preliminary detention on Friday, accused of influence trafficking and belonging to a criminal organisation. Meanwhile, Nicanor Boluarte is being investigated for allegedly using his influence to build a new political party and solicit bribes from regional officials. The investigation, dubbed Los waykis en la sombra, is ongoing. Additionally, Boluarte faces accusations related to security force killings during protests in December 2022. Boluarte ranks as Latin America’s least popular leader, with a 9% approval rating, according to a poll compiled by the Americas Society in January.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇸🇸🇦🇪 Controversial oil-backed loan from the UAE to South Sudan: South Sudan's $12 billion loan from a Dubai firm sparks debate over repayment amidst ongoing financial challenges. The deal, backed by oil, is the second under President Salva Kiir, aimed at funding infrastructure projects with Chinese companies. Former finance minister Barnaba Bak Chol aimed to diversify income but critics question the wisdom of the 20-year loan, signed in December 2023 with the Dubai-based Hamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects (HBK DOP). Economic analysts see it as part of Gulf countries' expansion into new markets, raising concerns about long-term financial stability for resource-rich developing nations.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇺🇸🇵🇸 GOP senators to introduce legislation on Palestine: This week, 25 GOP senators introduced the NOPE Act, extending the 1990 prohibition of US funds to any UN entity granting the PLO privileges beyond observer status. Senators Cotton and Cruz have also criticised Biden's restriction of arms to Israel following Netanyahu's assault on Rafah. The NOPE Act aims to prevent U.S. taxpayer dollars from supporting UN entities legitimising the PA or PLO. Cotton stated, "This important bill closes that gap, ensuring U.S. taxpayer dollars cannot support UN entities helping legitimise the Palestinian Authority or the Palestine Liberation Organization."

2️⃣🇺🇳🇵🇸 Support for Palestine’s elevation to full-member status in full-swing after General assembly vote: The recent passage of a General Assembly Resolution to upgrade Palestine's privileges at the United Nations, with 143 member states voting in favour, is seen as a significant symbolic victory, showcasing widespread international support. Washington vetoed a council resolution in April seeking full UN membership for Palestine. Deputy ambassador Robert Wood reiterated U.S. opposition to the assembly resolution, emphasising the importance of negotiating full membership with Israel. According to the UN Charter, prospective members must be "peace-loving," and admission requires Security Council recommendation. Palestine attained non-member observer state status in 2012, and this week’s development is expected to prompt greater recognition of Palestinian self-determination by EU states.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ “It doesn't matter if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice.” - Deng Xiaoping

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

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