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📰 Great Lakes conflict escalates

📰 Great Lakes conflict escalates

and Noboa re-elected

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 20, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

This week, Macron admits it was unjust to make Haiti pay for its independence, fighting has reignited in the Great Lakes region, and new research suggests Beijing, not Washington, is poised to benefit from Trump’s tariffs.

The main story explores West Africa’s fracture and what the ECOWAS-AES split means for regional unity and security.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇬🇧 🇦🇪 UK’s Sudan conference flops as RSF announce parallel government: The UK-led conference on Sudan’s conflict ended in disarray after a proposal to form a ceasefire contact group collapsed amid divisions between Arab states. Criticism mounted over the UK’s exclusion of Sudan’s government and civil society, despite inviting countries like the UAE—accused of backing the RSF, which continued attacks in Darfur during the talks. As RSF leader Hemeti declared a rival government mid-conference, human rights groups condemned the summit as ineffective, lacking concrete measures for civilian protection. The event closed without consensus, failing to address atrocities or deliver meaningful progress towards peace in what the UN deems the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russian airstrikes hit civilian targets in Sumy, northern Ukraine: More than 30 people were killed and 117 injured in a Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy on Sunday, one of the deadliest attacks in Ukraine this year. Ukrainian officials reported that two ballistic missiles struck the city centre as civilians gathered for Palm Sunday, killing at least 34, including two children. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the strike, accusing Russia of defying U.S.-led ceasefire efforts and continuing its assault with impunity. Global leaders, including the UK, France, and Poland, echoed outrage, while U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg called the attack “indefensible” and stressed Trump’s commitment to ending the war.

3️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇩🇿 France-Algeria diplomatic row escalates as Paris expels 12 Algerian officials: France has expelled 12 Algerian diplomats and recalled its ambassador from Algiers, escalating a diplomatic standoff between the two countries. The French presidency attributed the deterioration in relations to actions by Algerian authorities, particularly in the wake of a high-profile case involving the abduction of opposition figure Amir Boukhors, known online as Amir DZ. Boukhors, who holds political asylum in France, alleged he was abducted in April by individuals posing as police—one of whom was later revealed to work at the Algerian consulate. The move comes amid broader tensions, including France’s support for Morocco’s stance on Western Sahara and calls for the release of Algerian author Boualem Sansal, currently imprisoned on charges of undermining national integrity.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 🇱🇧 🇵🇸 Israeli troops to indefinitely remain in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza says defence minister Katz: Israel has announced its forces will indefinitely remain in parts of Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, tightening its hold on several occupied zones. Defence Minister Israel Katz confirmed the military will not withdraw from areas it has seized, instead turning them into buffer zones, including 30% of Gaza. While Israel continues its offensive, with over 1,200 targets struck since mid-March, humanitarian aid remains blocked—a violation of international law, which Katz describes as strategic pressure on Hamas. Meanwhile, Israel’s continued presence in southern Lebanon and Syria elicits international concern, with Lebanon’s president citing it as a key obstacle to the full implementation of the ceasefire agreement. Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Gaza continue to inflict enormous civilian casualties.

5️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇭🇺 🇷🇺 European Commission moves to ‘Orban-proof’ Russia sanctions: Several European governments are exploring ways to bypass Hungary’s veto power over sanctions on Russia by enacting national legislation, reducing the need for unanimous EU approval. At least six capitals are reportedly working on domestic laws to continue sanctions regardless of Hungary’s opposition—an approach that could blunt Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s influence. While some EU states worry this weakens collective foreign policy, others see it as necessary to ensure sanctions endure. Hungary’s repeated obstruction, including nearly derailing sanctions renewal in January, has prompted wider discussion of alternatives such as “coalitions of the willing” and even curtailing voting rights for member states violating EU principles.

Major Story

🇧🇫 🇲🇱 🇳🇪 WEST AFRICA’S FRACTURE: WHAT THE ECOWAS-AES SPLIT MEANS FOR REGIONAL UNITY AND SECURITY

The withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS and their formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) marks a seismic political realignment in West Africa. Under military rule, the AES states have severed ties with traditional allies, rejected French and US military presence, and embraced Russian support. Their recent moves—including new tariffs and a joint military force—highlight a focus on sovereignty over regional economic cooperation.

Shared Threats, Fragmented Responses

Despite distancing themselves from ECOWAS, the AES faces growing insecurity. Jihadist violence, climate stress, and demographic pressures threaten to overwhelm already fragile states. The breakdown in cooperation jeopardizes both regional trade and the fight against armed groups, as militants increasingly spill into Benin and Togo.

Security as Common Ground

Though political reconciliation seems distant, security may offer a path to renewed cooperation. AES leaders blame ECOWAS for insufficient support, but joint efforts—like Ghana’s outreach to Burkina Faso—offer hope. Intelligence sharing and bilateral military coordination could lay groundwork for rebuilding trust.

A Way Forward for ECOWAS

ECOWAS must shift from punitive sanctions toward positive incentives that encourage reintegration without compromising democratic values. While refusing unconditional re-entry for AES states, the bloc can focus on pragmatic collaboration in food security, trade, and energy. Ultimately, the intertwined fate of Sahelian and coastal states demands unity: in confronting extremism, climate change, and economic hardship, no nation can stand alone.

Promotion

Other News

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇭🇹 Macron says that making Haiti pay for its independence was unjust: Two hundred years after France imposed a crushing financial penalty on Haiti in exchange for recognising its independence, French President Emmanuel Macron has openly acknowledged the injustice. In a statement marking the bicentenary of the 1825 ordinance, Macron said Haiti faced "the unjust force of history" from its inception and that France must confront its role in this painful legacy. To that end, he announced the formation of a joint Franco-Haitian commission of historians, co-chaired by Haitian academic Gusti-Klara Gaillard-Pourchet, to examine the impact of the so-called “independence debt” and offer recommendations to both governments. The gesture comes amid a deepening humanitarian and security crisis in Haiti, raising hopes—however tentative—that a new chapter in Franco-Haitian relations may be emerging.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Hizbollah disarmament tied to dialogue and Israeli withdrawal, say Lebanese officials: Lebanon’s push to become the sole holder of arms hinges on national dialogue and Israel’s full withdrawal from occupied southern territory, according to government and Hizbollah-linked sources. President Joseph Aoun has pledged to restrict weapons to the state, opening channels with Hizbollah to explore integration into the national army. The group, weakened after sustained Israeli strikes, signals conditional openness to talks—but stresses disarmament cannot occur while Israeli troops remain on Lebanese soil. Analysts say any final decision will also depend on Iran’s strategic calculus as it negotiates with the U.S., while cautioning that forced disarmament could risk civil strife.

3️⃣ 🇪🇨 Ecuador’s president, Daniel Noboa, re-elected in runoff: Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa secured a decisive win in Sunday’s presidential runoff, earning 55.85% of the vote with over 92% of ballots counted—an outcome widely seen as a public endorsement of his tough-on-crime agenda. Leftist challenger Luisa González, who received 44.15%, rejected the result and demanded a recount, claiming fraud despite international observers reporting a calm election day. Noboa, who took office in 2023 to complete the term of his predecessor, will now serve a full term until 2029. His presidency has been marked by a militarised campaign against drug gangs, energy blackouts, and rising poverty—yet he won by a larger margin than polls predicted, even amid controversy over a last-minute state of emergency decree.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Beijing stands to benefit from Trump’s tariffs, not Washington: Since Xi Jinping took office in 2012, his leadership has steered China away from the diplomatic pragmatism that once underpinned its rise. Aggressive territorial assertions, military expansion, and domestic crackdowns have reshaped China’s global image. Meanwhile, President Trump’s erratic leadership has revealed that democratic systems are not immune to the perils of over-centralised power. His tariff war with China—most recently raising duties to 145%—has ironically bolstered Beijing’s narrative while alienating allies and weakening U.S. global standing. As China cultivates ties with Europe and its neighbours, Washington’s missteps risk making it appear less stable than the rival it seeks to contain.

5️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Heavy fighting between M23 and FARDC, FDLR, and Wazalendo forces erupts in Goma: Renewed clashes in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have left at least 52 people dead, escalating tensions around Goma and undermining regional peace efforts. Fighting erupted between M23 rebels and Congolese government forces, supported by militias and Southern African troops, as both sides blamed each other for the surge in violence. The M23, which captured Goma earlier this year, claimed it was forced to act to safeguard civilians, while Congo’s government accused the group of targeting key infrastructure, including a hospital where one person was killed. Residents in Goma described a night of terror under heavy gunfire, raising fears that the long-running conflict—already displacing over 7 million people—could descend into full-scale war.