Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 Europe braces for gas crisis

📰 Europe braces for gas crisis

and Israel strikes in Yemen

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 05, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

This week, an aid convoy reached southern Khartoum for the first time since war erupted in Sudan, while India and Pakistan exchanged nuclear facility lists under their annual agreement. Simultaneously, the U.S. and China tightened supply chain regulations, raising the spectre of an escalating trade war.

Across conflict zones, tensions escalated in the Middle East, eastern DR Congo, and along the Russia–Ukraine front. The main story this week highlights Iran’s presence in Syria and the growing friction between Tehran and Moscow.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 Europe faces gas shortages as Russia–Ukraine transit deal expires: Europe will receive its last Russian gas shipments through Ukraine’s pipelines as their transit agreement ends on New Year’s Day. This signals a significant shift in the region’s energy dynamics, further reducing Russia’s influence as a key supplier after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. With no renewal in place, European countries are increasingly dependent on gas from the U.S., Norway, and Qatar. Analysts warn that colder weather could deplete reserves, forcing eastern Europe to draw from northwestern markets. Ukraine, while capable of meeting its needs under normal conditions, may require EU imports if the winter proves severe. The looming cold snap is expected to drive up gas demand across the continent, posing one of the toughest tests for European energy supplies in recent years.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 🇾🇪 UN Security Council hold Israel–Houthi de-escalation talks: December saw escalating clashes between Israel and the Ansarullah (Houthi) coalition, with over ten missile and drone attacks launched at Israel. In response, Israel conducted airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, targeting ports and energy facilities, marking the third instance of direct Israeli action in Yemen this year. UN Secretary-General António Guterres voiced concern over civilian casualties and damage to Red Sea ports, warning of worsening humanitarian conditions in Yemen. Following further Houthi assaults, Israel struck Sana’a International Airport, narrowly missing a UN delegation. The strikes risk crippling humanitarian efforts, with millions reliant on aid flowing through Yemen’s ports, threatening to undermine UN mediation efforts.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 China implements dual-use export ban on U.S. defence contractors: China has imposed export controls on 28 U.S. companies, including major defence contractors like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Boeing, in response to escalating trade tensions. Chinese firms are now barred from selling dual-use goods to these entities, citing national security concerns. Additionally, 10 of these companies were placed on China’s "unreliable entities" list, restricting imports, exports, and investments, while revoking travel and residency permits for executives. Beijing’s actions follow U.S. sanctions targeting Chinese firms and technology, reflecting a tit-for-tat dynamic between the two nations. Despite the sanctions, experts suggest the immediate impact on U.S. defence contractors will be minimal, as they have limited business dealings with China.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 World Health Organisation condemns Israeli attack on North Gaza’s last functioning hospital: WHO has expressed its outrage over an Israeli raid that targeted the Kamal Adwan hospital in northern Gaza, describing the attack as a blow to the region's already weakened health system. The raid, which partially destroyed the hospital, comes after 80 days of siege on northern Gaza, putting the lives of the remaining 75,000 Palestinians at severe risk. Initial reports indicate that several key departments, including the laboratory, surgical unit, and medical stores, were heavily damaged or burned. While most of the medics detained during the raid were released, the hospital's director, Hussam Abu Safiya, remains missing.

5️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 M23 declares ‘existential war’ in eastern DR Congo: For three years, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has faced intense conflict between the national army and the M23 rebel group, resulting in hundreds of deaths and displacing nearly two million people. M23 emerged from a military mutiny in 2012 but resumed fighting in 2022, seizing large areas of North Kivu province. The group claims to defend Congolese Tutsis, who report discrimination due to ethnic ties with Rwanda’s Tutsi population. Kinshasa views M23 as the country’s most pressing security threat, with tensions rising over accusations that Rwanda supports the rebels—allegations Kigali denies. Despite ceasefire attempts and peace talks, hostilities persist, with M23 continuing territorial advances. Bertrand Bisimwa, the group’s political leader, insists M23’s fight is defensive and expresses hope for dialogue to end the violence.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇷🇺 🇸🇾 IRAN’S SYRIA PRESENCE AND TENSIONS WITH RUSSIA

Controversy has emerged regarding Iran’s military involvement in Syria and its recent withdrawal. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian forces evacuated 4,000 Iranian fighters from Syria in late 2024, sparking debate about the scale and nature of Iran’s presence. Tehran has denied these allegations, insisting it only deployed military advisors, not fighters, to Syria. This difference in narratives has rekindled concerns about the reliability of the Iran-Russia partnership and intensified tensions between the two nations.

Iran's Strategic Position in Syria Post-Assad

Iran’s influence in Syria has significantly diminished following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Despite this setback, Iranian officials continue to assert that their support for Syria was crucial to Assad’s survival, particularly through backing HIzbollah and the IRGC. Meanwhile, the rise of Turkey’s influence and ongoing Kurdish issues present new challenges for Tehran’s regional aspirations.

Internal Divisions and Russian Tensions

The dispute over the evacuation of Iranian personnel reflects broader internal divisions in Iran regarding its relationship with Russia. Historical mistrust and Russia’s actions, such as failing to deliver fighter jets and aligning with the GCC on territorial issues, have exacerbated these tensions. However, Iran’s strategic priorities, particularly in safeguarding Shia interests, ensure that it will likely continue to pursue influence in Syria, albeit with a more cautious and pragmatic approach.

Future Prospects

Although the diplomatic fallout from Putin's comments has caused discomfort in Tehran, it is unlikely to derail the broader strategic cooperation between Iran and Russia. Nonetheless, as Iran reassesses its role in Syria, its future influence in the region will depend on balancing its relationships with other key players, including Kurdish groups and regional powers.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇦 🇺🇸 Panama’s president Mulino asserts ‘Canal is Panamanian’, rejects prospect of Trump talks: Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino dismissed threats by US President-elect Donald Trump regarding potential US control of the Panama Canal, firmly stating there is “nothing to discuss.” Mulino also rejected lowering canal tolls for US ships and denied Chinese influence over the waterway. “The canal is Panamanian and belongs to Panamanians,” Mulino declared, emphasizing the national sacrifice made to secure sovereignty over the canal. Trump, set to take office next month, recently criticised Panama’s toll rates, suggesting the US could reclaim control. The canal, under US administration for decades, was formally transferred to Panama in 1999.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 Aid convoy reaches south Khartoum for first time since the outbreak of war: A long-awaited aid convoy has reached civilians in Jebel Awliya, south of Khartoum, marking the first delivery since Sudan’s war began 20 months ago, volunteers confirmed. The 28-truck convoy, coordinated by local emergency response teams, included food from the UN’s World Food Programme, medical supplies from UNICEF, and contributions from Doctors Without Borders and Care. The aid aims to address the urgent health and nutrition needs of 200,000 people in the area, where mass starvation looms. Gaining access required months of negotiations amid threats and roadblocks from both the Sudanese army (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 India, Pakistan exchange nuclear facility lists in annual agreement: India and Pakistan exchanged lists of their nuclear facilities as part of an annual diplomatic agreement aimed at preventing military strikes on each other’s nuclear sites. This pact, signed in 1988 and enforced in 1991, reflects a rare point of cooperation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. The latest exchange, carried out on January 1 through official diplomatic channels in New Delhi and Islamabad, continues a tradition that began in 1992. Despite this gesture, relations between India and Pakistan remain strained, with longstanding tensions centred on the disputed Kashmir region, which both nations claim.