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📰 Erdogan’s Syria ultimatum

📰 Erdogan’s Syria ultimatum

and the Middle East on the brink

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 29, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

This week saw unrest across multiple regions – dozens were killed in riots in Mozambique, fresh clashes broke out between security forces and insurgents in northwest Pakistan, and Turkish proxies engaged in skirmishes with Kurdish armed groups in northeast Syria.

Meanwhile, underreported developments include signs of democratic growth in Latin America, as highlighted by the latest LatinoBarómetro report. Our main story from the week covers China's growing influence in the Middle East, and the implications for the future.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy steps up efforts for Ukraine’s NATO accession: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told diplomats that Ukraine must actively push for NATO membership, describing the goal as achievable despite the need for strong security guarantees against Russia. He reiterated that NATO offers Ukraine the best protection, stressing that European support alone is insufficient without U.S. involvement. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened further destruction following a drone attack on Kazan, blaming Kyiv and warning of escalated retaliation. As the war intensifies, Zelenskyy remains adamant that NATO or equivalent guarantees are essential to prevent future Russian aggression, while Putin signals readiness to expand strikes targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 Controversial amnesty offered to Sudan’s RSF as armed groups proliferate: Sudan’s Sennar state is grappling with rising tensions driven by armed groups and a contentious amnesty for surrendering Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters. Since the Sudanese army regained control in October, at least three armed factions have emerged, claiming to protect the area but facing allegations of looting and violence. The recent arrival of RSF leaders Mirghani Hafeira and Qamar al-Dawla al-Amin—accused of crimes against humanity—has sparked outrage among local communities. Residents and tribal leaders demand justice, calling the amnesty and public reception of the fighters a betrayal. Amid escalating weapons proliferation and fragile stability, the situation underscores the volatile path Sudan faces in its pursuit of peace.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 Turkish proxy clashes with Kurdish armed groups in Syria’s northeast: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned on that Kurdish militias in Syria must either disarm or face destruction by Turkish forces. His comments coincide with ongoing clashes between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Türkiye-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), which includes extremist factions. Ankara’s military operations killed 21 Kurdish fighters this week, with Erdogan vowing continued offensives. The SDF, primarily composed of YPG fighters, faces Turkish pressure due to its links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group Türkiye considers a terrorist organization. Meanwhile, Ankara has initiated dialogue with Syria’s new leadership, signaling potential constitutional negotiations as Turkish troops amass along the border, raising fears of further escalation.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺 Eurozone records 2023 underperformance: The European growth model faces significant strain following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, exposing deeper structural issues that hinder recovery compared to the U.S. A lack of fiscal union and persistent debt burdens limit Europe’s ability to implement robust countercyclical stimulus, echoing patterns seen after the 2008 financial crisis. Without fiscal unity, the eurozone risks stagnating in a low-growth, high-debt scenario—akin to Japanification—where sustainability relies heavily on central bank yield controls. While the European Central Bank’s interventions prevent immediate crises, they inadvertently reduce the urgency for crucial fiscal reforms, perpetuating the cycle of underperformance and vulnerability to economic shocks.

5️⃣ 🇨🇳 China’s rapidly modernising military: The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) released its annual China Military Power Report, highlighting the rapid modernization of China’s military and its growing capacity to challenge U.S. interests. The report estimates China’s defense budget at up to $450 billion, reflecting significant investment in nuclear forces, naval expansion, and long-range precision strike capabilities. It underscores China's focus on Taiwan, with military exercises simulating potential conflict scenarios and efforts to deter third-party intervention. Despite progress, the DoD notes that China’s military still faces logistical and operational challenges, particularly in large-scale operations like an invasion of Taiwan. The report emphasizes Xi Jinping’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), aimed at strengthening China’s military readiness and strategic ambitions.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇸🇦 CHINA’S GROWING INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE

Over the past two decades, China has solidified its role as a major player in the Middle East, expanding its economic, political, and security presence. As the region's largest consumer of oil, China has seen its trade with the Middle East triple in the last 20 years, while also increasing its involvement in regional diplomacy and security.

Expanding Economic Ties and Strategic Interests

China’s strategy in the Middle East focuses on strengthening economic ties and diversifying its engagement. Beyond energy, China is investing in the energy transition, the digital economy, and high-tech exports. This strategy is expected to intensify over the next four years, especially as the Middle East navigates the shifting power dynamics triggered by the Gaza conflict. China views the Middle East as crucial for its energy security, and by 2029, it will continue to prioritize its economic and diplomatic efforts in the region. Beijing will seek deeper ties with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, positioning itself as a mediator and peacemaker in ongoing regional conflicts, including the Gaza crisis and Palestinian factions.

Strategic Competition with the U.S.

China’s growing presence will challenge the U.S.'s traditional influence in the region. With the incoming Trump administration likely to bolster Israel’s security and push for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, China will seize the opportunity to further its interests, capitalizing on Washington’s limitations. This dynamic will force the U.S. to rethink its Middle East policy, particularly in relation to the Palestinian issue.

Technological and Economic Rivalry

China’s technological cooperation with Middle Eastern nations—particularly in infrastructure and digital economy—poses a direct challenge to U.S. leadership. The Trump administration may need to engage the private sector to offer alternatives to Chinese technology, or risk losing ground in the region’s evolving economic landscape. The next decade will be crucial for China’s positioning in the Middle East, and its expanding influence will reshape the region's geopolitical landscape.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇿 Dozens killed in Mozambique riots: A deadly prison riot in Maputo, Mozambique claimed 33 lives and injured 15, authorities confirmed. The violence erupted at a maximum-security prison in the capital, where around 1,530 inmates escaped; 150 have since been recaptured. While police blamed external protests for fueling the unrest, the justice minister stated the riot began internally, unrelated to outside demonstrations. The incident coincides with growing unrest following October’s contested election, which upheld Frelimo’s rule despite opposition claims of fraud.

2️⃣ 🇵🇰 Renewed clashes between security forces and insurgents in Pakistan’s northwest: Pakistani security forces clashed with militants in three separate operations near the Afghan border on Thursday, resulting in the deaths of 13 insurgents, according to the military. Troops conducted raids in North and South Waziristan, killing 11 insurgents, while another two were killed in Bannu, all within Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. During the North Waziristan operation, an army major, Mohammad Awais, was killed in the exchange of fire. The area, once a hub for the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), has seen increased militant activity in recent months. The TTP, distinct but aligned with the Afghan Taliban, has grown bolder since the latter's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 following the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces.