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This week, US-led diplomacy in Sudan collapses as the RSF seizes El Fasher; Germany seeks a strategic reset with Turkey; and Ethiopia calls for mediation with Eritrea over its Red Sea access dispute.

Our lead story asks: Is Washington engineering regime change in Venezuela?

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇸 US-led Sudan diplomacy collapses with RSF’s capture of El-Fasher: The RSF’s victory, achieved at catastrophic human cost, underscores the collapse of Sudan’s central authority as the army retreats to its eastern stronghold in Port Sudan. The Trump administration has sought to replicate its Gaza ceasefire diplomacy through the “Quad” — a forum of the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt — but its strategy is undermined by competing regional agendas. With mediators themselves serving as patrons of war, the US effort has devolved into diplomacy by optics — detached from realities on the ground and devoid of leverage to halt Sudan’s violent disintegration.

2️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Trump and Xi agree fragile trade truce in Busan: The trade war between the United States and China appears to have entered a fragile pause after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reached a tentative agreement during talks in Busan, South Korea. After months of punitive tariffs, export restrictions, and retaliatory measures, the deal restores much of the pre-war status quo — easing tensions without resolving the underlying rivalry.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel resumes airstrikes on Gaza, killing over 100 as ceasefire collapses: Israeli warplanes pounded Gaza overnight after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered “immediate and powerful strikes,” marking the most serious breach yet of the fragile ceasefire. More than 100 Palestinians, including 46 children, were killed in the attacks, which struck Gaza City, Khan Younis, and Deir al-Balah.

4️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇹🇹 Venezuela declares Trinidad and Tobago prime minister persona non grata: Venezuela’s National Assembly voted to declare Trinidad and Tobago prime minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar persona non grata and bar her entry, while also suspending a major gas deal and both sides weigh further retaliatory measures, including mass deportations and other restrictions.The decision follows Persad-Bissessar’s public support for US strikes on alleged drug boats — attacks that have killed dozens and drawn legal criticism as extrajudicial killings.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇦🇫 🇵🇰 Afghanistan–Pakistan Istanbul talks reach impasse: Peace talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan in Istanbul ended without progress, dashing hopes of a lasting truce after some of the deadliest border fighting since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. Despite a recent ceasefire, hostilities have continued, with clashes over the weekend killing at least five Pakistani soldiers and 25 militants.

Major Story

🇻🇪 🇺🇸 IS WASHINGTON PURSUING REGIME CHANGE IN VENEZUELA?

The Trump administration’s growing military presence in the Caribbean has raised alarms about its true intent. What began as an ostensibly anti-narcotics campaign now appears to be a covert strategy to force Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power. Despite rumours that Caracas has offered the U.S. lucrative energy concessions to ease tensions, Washington’s actions — including drone and missile strikes on alleged drug traffickers — suggest a broader political agenda. Analysts and legal experts have characterised the strikes as extrajudicial killings, noting that they lack any credible legal basis or transparent justification. The deployment of guided-missile destroyers, F-35 fighters, and special operations forces underscores an increasingly aggressive posture whose objectives remain deliberately opaque.

The Mirage of Regime Change

While figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and opposition leader María Corina Machado argue that a limited show of U.S. force could fracture Maduro’s government, history and Venezuela’s political structure suggest otherwise. The regime’s tight control of the military, reinforced by patronage networks and internal purges, makes an internal collapse improbable. Maduro’s government, wary of assassination or coup attempts, has fortified its defences, mobilising militias, and preparing for potential incursions under the guise of counterterrorism.

A Dangerous Pretext

Trump’s justification — targeting “narcoterrorist” groups linked to Maduro — is viewed by many analysts as a pretext for intervention. Most U.S.-bound narcotics originate in Mexico, not Venezuela, and Washington’s strikes have already killed dozens in incidents shrouded in secrecy and legal controversy. If missile strikes fail to dislodge Maduro, the U.S. could escalate toward land-based attacks or covert operations. Such actions risk igniting regional instability, especially with Colombia signalling opposition to any cross-border operations.

Regional Fallout and Strategic Risks

A U.S. intervention could plunge Latin America into chaos. The breakdown of Colombia–U.S. relations, potential refugee surges, and the empowerment of armed factions within Venezuela all threaten to unravel regional stability. While many Venezuelans do seek democratic reform, military coercion will not achieve it. 

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇨🇺 UN overwhelmingly votes to end US embargo on Cuba: The United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to end the decades-old US embargo on Cuba, adopting a resolution backed by 165 countries, with only the United States, Israel, and five others opposing it. Washington had lobbied heavily against the measure, even alleging that thousands of Cubans were fighting for Russia in Ukraine — claims Havana dismissed as baseless.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Battle for Pokrovsk intensifies, Putin flaunts new nuclear weapons: Fierce fighting continues around the eastern Ukrainian towns of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, where Russia claims to have encircled 5,500 Ukrainian troops—an assertion dismissed by Kyiv. Meanwhile, Russia escalated its intimidation campaign with a string of weapons tests. President Vladimir Putin announced successful launches of nuclear-powered torpedoes and cruise missiles, boasting they had “no equals in the world.”

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Lebanese president orders army to confront Israeli incursions after border raid: Israeli forces killed a Lebanese municipal worker during a cross-border raid in the southern village of Blida, before launching raids on Nabatieh, sparking outrage and prompting President Joseph Aoun to order the army to confront any future Israeli incursions. Lebanese media reported that soldiers stormed a municipal building and shot Salameh as he slept.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇦🇷 Trump’s $40bn bailout helps Milei secure midterm victory in Argentina: Javier Milei’s unexpected midterm triumph has been widely credited to Donald Trump’s $40 billion rescue package, which stabilised Argentina’s economy and restored investor confidence just days before the vote. Trump had warned he would withdraw support if Milei faltered, a threat that critics decried as blatant electoral interference—but one that may have swayed voters amid deep economic turmoil.

5️⃣ 🇹🇱 🇲🇾 Timor-Leste becomes ASEAN's 11th member: Timor-Leste has formally joined ASEAN, becoming the bloc’s 11th member and its only full democracy. Accession will grant Dili deeper regional integration and greater economic opportunity but also draw intensified interest from both Washington and Beijing, each eager to expand influence in Southeast Asia.

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Tips & Suggestions

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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