Hello and welcome back. 

Pyongyang accelerates conventional military modernisation amid nuclear lull, Kast wins Chilean presidency, and the Trump administration approves a $10bn arms package for Taiwan.

This week’s lead story examines Washington’s claim over Venezuela’s oil, assessing the gulf between U.S. rhetoric and international law.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇦🇪 🇺🇸 US and Gulf partners discuss monetising Gaza gas for reconstruction: US, Israeli and Emirati officials have held preliminary talks on using revenues from Gaza’s offshore gas reserves to finance post-war reconstruction, including a proposal for Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc to take a stake in the undeveloped fields. While no formal commitments have been made, the scheme would channel profits from Gaza’s most valuable natural resource into reconstructing what has been levelled by Israeli bombing.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 European leaders launch Ukraine reparations body: EU leaders have met in the Netherlands to formally establish an International Claims Commission to adjudicate tens of billions of euros in reparations for Ukraine, with President Zelenskyy warning that any peace deal must not reward Russian aggression. Russia downplayed the initiative and dismissed the prospect of a Christmas ceasefire, while eastern flank states meeting in Helsinki reiterated that Moscow remains a long-term security threat.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇪🇬 Egypt mulls Sudan intervention: Egypt has warned that any attempt to undermine Sudan’s state institutions or territorial unity constitutes a “red line,” signalling it could act under a joint defence agreement as RSF atrocities escalate. Following talks between President Sisi and Sudan’s leader Burhan, Cairo framed Sudan’s stability as integral to Egypt’s national security and rejected parallel authorities, territorial division, or interference in Sudan’s resources.

4️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇳 Rwanda, DR Congo peace deal in tatters: Washington  accused Rwanda of violating a US-brokered peace deal by supporting a renewed M23 rebel offensive in eastern Congo, warning it would act against “spoilers” destabilising the region. US Ambassador Mike Waltz told the UN that Rwandan forces were backing the advance and captured the strategic city of Uvira despite last week’s agreement committing Kigali to halt such support.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇹🇼 Trump administration approves $10bn arms package for Taiwan: The Trump administration has authorised more than $10bn in arms sales to Taiwan, including missiles, artillery systems, drones, and advanced military software, prompting a sharp backlash from Beijing. Washington says the package is intended to bolster Taiwan’s defensive deterrence and regional stability, while China condemned the move as a violation of bilateral understandings.

Major Story

🇻🇪 🇺🇸 WASHINGTON’S RHETORIC VERSUS INTERNATIONAL LAW ON VENEZUELA’S OIL

Senior Trump adviser Stephen Miller has reignited controversy by suggesting that Venezuela’s oil “belongs” to the United States, echoing President Donald Trump’s declaration of a blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil shipments. The remarks come amid an expanded U.S. military posture in the Caribbean and a series of lethal maritime strikes Washington claims target drug trafficking—assertions Caracas and critics say mask an effort to exert pressure for regime change and resource control.

Why the Claim Is Being Made

Miller argues that U.S. capital and expertise built Venezuela’s oil industry and that subsequent nationalisation amounted to an unlawful seizure of American property. Historically, U.S. firms did play a central role in developing Venezuela’s oil sector in the early twentieth century, particularly after major discoveries around Lake Maracaibo. But that era ended decisively in 1976, when Venezuela nationalised its oil industry and established the state-owned company PDVSA, a move consistent with global norms at the time and followed by many resource-producing states.

What the Law Actually Says

Under international law, Washington has no claim to Venezuela’s oil. The principle of Permanent Sovereignty over Natural Resources, enshrined in a 1962 UN General Assembly resolution, affirms that states have exclusive rights over the resources within their territory. Nationalisation, even when it disadvantages foreign firms, is legal provided compensation mechanisms exist. Whatever the political grievances between Washington and Caracas, resource ownership is not in dispute in legal terms: Venezuela owns its oil.

Sanctions, Leverage, and Reality

U.S. sanctions, first imposed in the mid-2000s and expanded sharply after 2017, have crippled Venezuela’s oil exports and forced Caracas to redirect sales toward China and a handful of other buyers. Today, Chevron remains the only U.S. firm operating in Venezuela, under tightly controlled joint ventures and special licences. Trump’s rhetoric signals a more openly transactional approach to diplomacy, but turning political pressure into sovereign ownership would mark a clear breach of international law, and a dangerous precedent well beyond Venezuela.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 Saudi-backed forces amass near Yemen border as STC defies withdrawal pressure: Up to 20,000 Saudi-backed troops are reportedly massing near Yemen’s eastern border as the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council refuses to reverse its rapid territorial expansion across oil-rich Hadramaut, raising the risk of direct confrontation. The STC is leveraging its gains to renew demands for southern secession, a move that has alarmed Riyadh and prompted warnings of possible Saudi airstrikes against STC positions.

2️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar junta criminalises opposition as sham election nears: Myanmar’s military authorities have charged more than 200 people under sweeping election laws ahead of a late-December vote widely dismissed as neither free nor fair, intensifying repression of critics of military rule. The junta says the prosecutions target efforts to “sabotage” the polls, but opponents argue the election is designed to legitimise the 2021 coup and is being enforced through repression.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇧🇪 🇪🇺 Russian intelligence targets Belgian officials: European intelligence agencies say Russian military intelligence has mounted an intimidation campaign against Belgian politicians and senior Euroclear executives to derail plans to use €185bn in frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine. The pressure comes as EU leaders debate a €90bn loan backed by those funds, with Belgium seeking legal guarantees amid Russian threats of lawsuits and retaliation.

4️⃣ 🇸🇰 🇪🇺 Slovaks protest judicial overhaul under Fico government: Thousands demonstrated across Slovakia, including a mass rally in Bratislava, after Prime Minister Robert Fico’s government rushed through judicial changes critics say weaken whistleblower protections and undermine the rule of law. Opposition leaders warned the reforms favour organised crime and mirror Hungary’s illiberal turn, while protesters waved EU flags and accused the government of dismantling democratic safeguards.

5️⃣ 🇨🇱 Kast wins Chile presidency on hardline security and migration platform: Ultra-conservative José Antonio Kast has been elected Chile’s next president, securing 58.16% of the vote against leftist candidate Jeannette Jara with nearly all ballots counted. Running on a law-and-order platform that blamed rising insecurity on undocumented migration, Kast pledged mass expulsions and tougher border controls, tapping into public anxiety despite Chile remaining one of Latin America’s safer countries.

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Tips & Suggestions

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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