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🗞️ Why is Egypt deploying troops to Somalia?

🗞️ Why is Egypt deploying troops to Somalia?

the bigger picture

Ross Crabtree
September 04, 2024

Hello there,

We’re back with another mid-week special focusing on Egypt’s intervention in Somalia, which has the potential for escalation with East African titan Ethiopia. While this story may not have risen to the top of news feeds, we at Horizon believe it is a significant geopolitical development that should be watched closely.

All the details below 👇️

Setting the Scene

Egypt's recent decision to send troops to Somalia has raised eyebrows across the Horn of Africa and beyond. This development comes at a time of escalating tensions in the region, primarily driven by the ongoing rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia. The two Nile states have long been at loggerheads over multiple issues for years - however, this latest saga has upped the stakes once again.

Background of the Conflict

The Horn of Africa has long been a region of instability, with a history of conflicts involving Somalia, Ethiopia, and other neighboring countries. Central to the current tensions is the controversial Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement signed earlier this year. Ethiopia agreed to lease part of Somaliland’s coastline in exchange for potential recognition of its independence. This move directly challenged Somalia’s territorial integrity and created friction between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa.

Further complicating matters is the ongoing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Since the project began in 2011, Egypt has considered the dam a direct threat to its water supply from the Nile, raising tensions between the two nations. As a result, Egypt has drawn closer to Somalia, signing a military pact that involves deploying troops to Mogadishu and other parts of Somalia.

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Egypt's Strategic Interests

So why is exactly is Egypt sending troops and materiel to Somalia now? Well, the state's decision to strengthen its military ties with Somalia stems from multiple key objectives - let’s take a look:

Countering Ethiopian Influence

Firstly, at the heart of Egypt's move is its desire to curtail Ethiopia's growing influence in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland, which could potentially give it access to the sea, threatens Egypt’s strategic interests. By deploying troops to Somalia, Egypt positions itself as a counterbalance to Ethiopia’s ambitions and signals its opposition to any further attempts by Addis Ababa to gain influence in the region.

Combating Terrorism

Secondly, Somalia continues to grapple with the terrorist group Al-Shabaab, which has been a significant threat to stability in the region. Egypt’s military presence in Somalia is intended to assist the Somali army in combating this group, while also enhancing Somalia’s internal security. This move aligns with Egypt’s broader goal of promoting regional stability and combating terrorism.

Regional Stability

Egypt also views the stability of Somalia as crucial to securing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a key maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of global trade flows. Strengthening Somalia’s military and ensuring stability along this strategic waterway are essential for the state, which relies on the Suez Canal for vital revenue. More instability in Somalia, alongside the already disruptive activities of the Houth Rebels in Yemen, could threaten maritime trade routes further motivating the country to act.

Timing

The timing of this deployment is critical, as the current African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is set to end soon, to be replaced by a new peace support operation. Egypt’s military involvement ensures it will play a significant role in shaping the future security landscape of Somalia.

Geopolitical Implications

The Egyptian-Somali alliance has significant geopolitical ramifications, not only for the Horn of Africa but for the broader region.

Increased Tensions with Ethiopia

Ethiopia has expressed deep concern about Egypt’s military presence in Somalia, accusing Cairo of using Somalia as a proxy to exert pressure over the Nile dam dispute. Ethiopian leaders are alarmed by the presence of Egyptian troops near their border and the prospect of a potential clash. This escalation of tensions comes at a time when Ethiopia is also dealing with internal unrest and conflict, leaving Addis Ababa feeling increasingly vulnerable.

Potential Proxy Wars

The deployment of Egyptian troops to Somalia could further complicate the already volatile situation in the region, potentially leading to proxy wars between Ethiopia and Egypt, with Somalia as the battleground. Ethiopia, with its historical role in stabilizing Somalia, may feel compelled to intervene directly to protect its interests, particularly as Egypt strengthens its influence in the region.

Impact on Local Dynamics

On the ground in Somalia, the presence of Egyptian forces could reshape local power dynamics. Ethiopia has long been involved in Somalia’s security efforts, but the introduction of Egyptian troops may alter alliances and provoke a backlash from Ethiopian-supported groups. Additionally, the involvement of Egypt raises questions about how local actors, including Al-Shabaab, might respond to increased foreign military presence in the country.

The Future

The geopolitical future of Egypt's deployment to Somalia is fraught with uncertainty. While there is potential for a diplomatic resolution, the risk of escalating tensions and a proxy war remains high. Regional diplomacy, global geopolitical factors, domestic politics, and economic interests will all influence the outcome. If the shadow conflict continues to escalate, it could destabilize the entire region, increase terrorism risks, and have negative economic consequences for all involved parties. However, a negotiated settlement could prevent further escalation and promote regional stability.