šŸ“° Drones over Haiti

and Washington's Iran paradox

Welcome back to Geopolitics Weekly.

This week, President Trump signs an executive order lifting U.S. sanctions on Syria, while a new UN report finds Rwanda exercises full command and control over M23 rebels in eastern DRC—days after a Washington-brokered peace deal with Kinshasa.

Our top story examines the paradox at the heart of U.S. policy on Iran.

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Top 5 Stories

1ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡·šŸ‡ŗ šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡¦ Russia unleashes largest aerial bombardment of Ukraine since start of war: Russia launched its most intense air assault on Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, firing over 500 aerial weapons overnight. Ukraine’s air force reported intercepting the majority of 477 drones and 60 missiles, but strikes still killed two people and injured at least 12, including children. The bombardment targeted sites far from the frontlines and coincided with President Putin’s claim of readiness for renewed peace talks, which Kyiv dismissed as insincere. President Zelenskyy reiterated the need for robust Western air defences, noting that Russia launched over 2,400 air weapons in the past week alone. Meanwhile, Ukraine confirmed the death of a fighter pilot who downed seven Russian targets before his F-16 was hit. Kyiv also announced plans to withdraw from the global landmine ban, citing Russia’s continued mine use and battlefield realities.

2ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡­šŸ‡¹ Armed drones used in Haiti’s gang crackdown amid rights concerns and foreign involvement: Haitian authorities are increasingly deploying armed drones to combat gang control in Port-au-Prince, with over 300 killed and nearly 400 injured since the campaign began in March, according to RNDDH. Footage circulating online shows drone strikes on gang-controlled areas and even civilian sites, raising legal and ethical concerns. Some experts suspect these videos are produced by a covert taskforce backed by the Haitian government, possibly involving foreign contractors. Human rights groups in Haiti support the drone operations as a proportionate response to gang violence that has displaced over a million. Still, critics warn of legal ambiguity and escalation risks, especially as gangs reportedly attempt to acquire similar drones. Despite the controversy, officials say drone strikes have reduced violence and reopened parts of the city, though oversight remains limited and concerns over political control persist.

3ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³ President Xi removes top military official amid widening PLA corruption purge: China’s top naval political commissar, Admiral Miao Hua, has been dismissed from the Central Military Commission (CMC) as part of President Xi Jinping’s expanding anti-corruption campaign. Miao, who was suspended last year for ā€œserious violations of discipline,ā€ is among the highest-ranking CMC members purged since the Mao era. His expulsion follows similar removals of defence ministers, rocket force leaders, and senior procurement officials, suggesting a deepening investigation into corruption in China’s military-industrial apparatus. The crackdown is politically sensitive, especially as many ousted figures were appointed by Xi himself. As Beijing aims to project global strength, the wave of dismissals risks unsettling that image. Military dialogue between China and the U.S. remains limited, raising concerns amid tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Miao’s removal underscores both Xi’s control and the decay within China’s armed forces.

4ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡¬ šŸ‡±šŸ‡¾ šŸ‡øšŸ‡© šŸ‡¦šŸ‡Ŗ Sisi hosts Burhan, Haftar, following RSF strategic triangle seizure: Sudan’s military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan held talks in Cairo with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, shortly after Sisi met separately with commander of the Tobruk-based ā€˜Libyan National Army’ (LNA), Khalifa Haftar. Burhan had cut short his trip to a UN conference in Seville, cancelling a planned meeting with Spain’s foreign minister, to make the unannounced visit. The meetings came amid escalating tensions following the Rapid Support Forces’ seizure of the border triangle between Sudan, Egypt, and Libya. The Sudanese army has accused a Haftar-aligned Salafist militia of supporting the RSF, with reports of RSF training camps in Libya. Egyptian state media said Sisi and Haftar discussed expelling foreign forces from Libya, while sources suggest Sisi may broker direct talks between Burhan and Haftar. Cairo reaffirmed support for Sudan’s unity and efforts to boost humanitarian aid. This development may provoke a sharp response from Abu Dhabi toward Cairo, as the UAE backs both Haftar’s LNA and Sudan’s RSF, and could view the talks as encroaching on its regional strategy.

5ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡µšŸ‡ø Legal experts call for cumulative civilian harm framework in Gaza war crimes assessment: More than 54,000 Palestinian people—over 15,000 of them children—have been killed since October 2023, and the destruction in Gaza has devastated every facet of civilian life. Medical infrastructure is nearly obliterated, with only 20 of 36 hospitals partially functioning and over 1,000 children reportedly requiring amputations. But deaths alone fail to capture the full scope of harm. Legal scholars now argue for a ā€œcumulative civilian harmā€ framework to assess Gaza’s suffering—one that recognises layered, intersectional, and sustained violations, especially against women and children. This approach challenges traditional laws of war that treat attacks as isolated, instead urging accountability for their compounding effects. It reframes forced displacement, malnutrition, trauma, and infrastructure collapse not as collateral, but as systematic tools of domination with serious implications for command liability under international humanitarian and criminal law.

Major Story

šŸ‡®šŸ‡· šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡³ THE PARADOX OF FORCE: HOW STRIKING IRAN ACCELERATES ITS NUCLEAR THREAT

Following President Donald Trump’s airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Washington was quick to declare victory, boasting that Iran’s weapons capability had been "obliterated." Yet experts remain sceptical. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) notes that visual damage tells little about what lies beneath fortified bunkers. Key enrichment sites were untouched, and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium may have survived.

More concerning, however, is the collapse of the transparency regime that had previously kept Iran’s programme under strict IAEA oversight. The attack has undermined decades of diplomacy and non-proliferation work, with Iran now moving toward total disengagement from international nuclear commitments.

From Transparency to Retaliation

For decades, Iran’s nuclear programme operated under international surveillance. As a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran allowed inspectors access to enrichment facilities, research reactors, and fuel plants. Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it further reduced enrichment and accepted intrusive inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA, however, began a downward spiral. Iran slowly scaled back compliance. Now, with its nuclear facilities bombed, Iran has halted all cooperation with the IAEA and its parliament is preparing legislation to exit the NPT altogether. If Iran withdraws, it would mark the treaty’s most serious violation since North Korea’s departure in 2003—potentially sparking a regional arms race and undoing decades of global restraint.

Diplomacy Must Return

Trump’s attack sent a chilling message: even states under IAEA safeguards can be bombed. This precedent risks encouraging proliferation, not preventing it. Iran’s opaque future now poses a graver threat than the programme that once operated under tight scrutiny. The strikes have also shattered Tehran’s confidence in conventional deterrence, with policymakers increasingly arguing that only a nuclear deterrent can compensate for its failure. Rebuilding trust will be profoundly difficult. The U.S. must abandon unrealistic demands and return to a credible, monitored enrichment deal, writes international security expert, Olamide Samuel.  Iran has shown it may be open to limits if treated as a partner, not a pariah. The future of non-proliferation depends on whether Washington can correct course—and whether Tehran believes it’s worth coming back to the table.

Other News

1ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³ Canberra accuses China of 'taking undue credit' for Pacific development projects: China is expanding its Pacific footprint by publicly branding Asian Development Bank-funded infrastructure as Chinese-led, despite funding coming largely from countries like Australia and Japan. In Bougainville, a Papua New Guinea autonomous region, a runway upgrade financed by the ADB features only the Chinese state-owned firm CRCC in local announcements and at inauguration events—prompting frustration from Australian officials. Minister Pat Conroy said such branding misrepresents development ownership and reinforces Beijing’s influence in a strategically vital region. While Bougainville’s leadership downplays the concerns, citing limited options from traditional donors, Australia remains cautious. The U.S. and Australia fear China may gain a geopolitical edge should Bougainville break away, which the recent ā€˜Melanesian Agreement’ suggests it may. Tensions are heightened by the region’s history with Australia and rising Chinese engagement in Pacific security and infrastructure.

2ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡³ šŸ‡·šŸ‡¼ šŸ‡ØšŸ‡© UN report finds that Rwanda exercises complete command and control over M23 rebels in eastern DRC: A UN report accuses Rwanda of exerting direct command over M23 rebels during their offensive in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, providing training, advanced weaponry, and operational oversight. The report states Rwanda’s support aims not at neutralising FDLR militias, as Kigali claims, but at securing territory rich in tin, tantalum, and gold. UN investigators estimate 6,000 Rwandan troops have operated in North and South Kivu provinces, training M23 fighters at Rwandan military bases. The experts also allege Rwanda violated arms embargoes and fired missiles at UN peacekeepers. Kigali denies the claims, citing national security concerns. Amid growing international pressure, Rwanda and Congo signed a peace deal in Washington, with Qatar hosting parallel mediation. UN findings suggest M23 movements remain directed by Rwanda, raising concerns of regional escalation.

3ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡²šŸ‡± šŸ‡øšŸ‡³ šŸ‡²šŸ‡· Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam overruns seven army posts in Western Mali: Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-linked militant group, has claimed responsibility for simultaneous attacks on military bases across seven towns in Mali, marking the third major assault on the army this month. While the Malian military said it repelled the attacks and killed over 80 fighters, JNIM claims it seized three army barracks. Clashes were reported near both the Senegalese and Mauritanian borders, including in Kayes, where residents described intense gunfire and smoke near government buildings. Mali has endured over a decade of jihadist violence and separatist unrest. Along with Burkina Faso, Mali has become the global epicentre for jihadist violence. U.S. Africa Command has recently warned of Islamist groups expanding southwards toward West Africa’s coast, raising alarms about increased smuggling and arms flows through the region.

4ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡µšŸ‡¬ šŸ‡³šŸ‡æ Bougainville and Papua New Guinea sign ā€˜Melanesian Agreement’ on independence pathway: Bougainville and PNG have signed the ā€œMelanesian Agreement,ā€ outlining steps toward resolving Bougainville’s bid for independence. Finalised during ten days of talks at Burnham Military Camp in New Zealand, the accord acknowledges the legitimacy of Bougainville’s 2019 pro-independence referendum while reaffirming that PNG’s parliament will make the final decision. To ease national concerns over autonomy demands from other regions, both sides agreed to a unique framework tailored for Bougainville. A bipartisan parliamentary committee will educate the public and MPs, while both governments work on a temporary sessional order to present the referendum results. If parliament does not approve, further talks will proceed on a defined timeline. The agreement also commits to institutional strengthening in Bougainville and includes options for international and UN-backed monitoring to ensure momentum and mutual trust are maintained.

5ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø šŸ‡øšŸ‡¾ Trump signs executive order to end U.S. sanctions on Syria: President Donald Trump signed an executive order ending the decades-long US sanctions regime on Syria, following a surprise announcement in Riyadh and his meeting with interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The move, framed as a step toward regional peace and reconstruction, lifts restrictions on Syria’s economy but preserves sanctions on former President Bashar al-Assad, his allies, and designated terrorist groups. The White House described it as supporting Syria’s path to ā€œpeace, unity and stability.ā€ Sharaa, once on a U.S. wanted list, praised the decision as a gateway to recovery. Sanctions on Syria had intensified over 50 years, peaking under the Caesar Act. Officials say future relief depends on progress under Sharaa’s leadership, with Washington and Israel closely monitoring whether Syria remains ā€˜non-hostile’ to their regional interests.

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