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🗞️ Congo crisis deepens

🗞️ Congo crisis deepens

and Syria’s new leader

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 02, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, conflicts in Sudan, eastern DR Congo, Colombia, and Ukraine have seen significant escalations, while the fragile ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel hangs by a thread following the IDF’s failure to withdraw by the mandated deadline.

Our main story examines the fall of Goma to the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels and the regional implications of a conflict that has rapidly evolved into a major geopolitical flashpoint.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 SAF now controls Omdurman, Bahri after breaking RSF siege on Khartoum HQ: On Friday, the Sudanese army announced it had broken the siege on its Khartoum headquarters, imposed by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces since the war began in April 2023. Troops from Bahri and Omdurman joined forces, lifting the blockade and regaining control of the key Jaili oil refinery, previously held by the RSF. The army's success marks a significant victory, providing access to supplies and military reinforcements in Khartoum. While the situation remains difficult to verify due to a communications blackout, this breakthrough follows months of fighting and ongoing conflict in Sudan, where the war has displaced millions and caused widespread devastation. The military now holds an advantage, though the RSF continues to control parts of Khartoum North.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia claims to have seized Velyka Novosilka: On January 26, Russian forces claimed to have fully seized Velyka Novosilka, though geolocated footage suggests they control 89% of the settlement. Fighting persists, with Ukrainian forces reportedly still active in the area, particularly in the north. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has been unusually vocal in promoting this seizure, likely to influence Western perceptions and bolster their narrative of progress. Despite this, Russian advances remain slow, and the presence of rivers near Velyka Novosilka could hinder further territorial gains. The situation raises questions about whether Russian forces will redeploy elements of their Eastern Military District (EMD) to other priority areas in Donetsk, potentially shaping their strategies for Spring and Summer 2025.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 Al-Sharaa appointed as interim president, abolishes constitution: Ahmed al-Sharaa has been named Syria’s interim president, with the country’s constitution suspended during the transitional phase, according to state media. He has also been tasked with forming a temporary legislative council until a new constitution is adopted. Hassan Abdel Ghani, spokesperson for Syria’s new military-led government, announced the dissolution of all armed factions, which will be integrated into state institutions, along with the dissolution of the former regime’s army, security agencies, and ruling Baath Party. Al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohamed al-Jolani), who led the offensive that ousted Bashar al-Assad, has pledged a political transition, including a national conference, an inclusive government, and eventual elections—though uniting Syria’s fragmented rebel groups under a single administration remains a major challenge.

4️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇨🇴 Leaked intelligence alleges Venezuelan support for Colombian rebel group, ELN: Tensions between Colombia and Venezuela escalate after reports revealed that rebels responsible for a deadly wave of violence in Colombia traveled through Venezuelan territory before launching their attack. A leaked military intelligence report indicated that at least 80 ELN fighters passed through Venezuela’s Táchira and Zulia states before attacking a rival group in Catatumbo, killing at least 80 people and displacing 40,000. Analysts suggest that Nicolás Maduro’s government may have tacitly approved or even facilitated the operation, further straining relations between Bogotá and Caracas. As the humanitarian crisis unfolds, Colombian President Gustavo Petro has severed peace talks with the ELN, deployed troops to the border, and urged Venezuela to prevent illegal crossings, while Maduro has dismissed the allegations and accused Colombia of harboring Venezuelan criminals.

5️⃣ 🇩🇰 🇬🇱 🇺🇸 Denmark hikes Greenland defence spending: Denmark will invest 14.6 billion kroner ($2.05 billion) to enhance military capabilities in the Arctic, citing growing security concerns in the region. The plan includes funding for three Arctic naval vessels, two long-range surveillance drones, and expanded military training. Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen emphasized the need to strengthen Denmark’s presence in the Arctic and North Atlantic, while Minister of Statehood and Foreign Affairs Vivian Motzfeldt highlighted Greenland’s evolving security landscape. The announcement follows renewed U.S. interest in Greenland and the EU’s firm stance that Greenland’s sovereignty is non-negotiable.

Major Story

🇨🇩 🇷🇼 THE FALL OF GOMA: RWANDAN REALPOLITIK AND REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

On 27 January, the Rwandan-backed March 23 Movement (M23) rebels seized control of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This marked a significant escalation in the ongoing crisis, displacing over two million people and exposing thousands to violence from various armed groups. With Rwanda and M23 now dominating North Kivu, the conflict threatens to spill into South Kivu, endangering its capital, Bukavu. The situation risks reigniting a regional war reminiscent of the late 1990s, which claimed millions of lives.

M23’s Resurgence and Failed Diplomacy

After lying dormant since 2012, M23 reemerged in November 2021, swiftly overrunning Congolese forces and capturing strategic towns and mining sites. Backed by Rwandan troops and resources, M23 represents the latest iteration of Tutsi-dominated insurgents from the 1990s civil war. In response, Kinshasa enlisted mercenaries and regional troops, including Burundian forces, to bolster its defenses. However, poor coordination among Congolese forces and their allies has left them vulnerable. Regional and international efforts to mediate the conflict have fallen short. Kenyan President William Ruto, chair of the East African Community (EAC), has convened talks starting 29 January, involving key stakeholders such as the DRC, Rwanda, and Angola.

Rwanda’s Role and Strategic Ambitions

Rwanda initially denied involvement but has since justified its actions as protecting Congolese Tutsis and countering the FDLR, a Hutu-led rebel group. However, evidence suggests Rwanda’s goals extend beyond security, aiming for territorial expansion and control of mineral-rich areas. M23 and Rwandan forces have established de facto administrations in captured territories, sidelining local leaders. International Crisis Group writes, ‘Rwanda initially denied any role, claiming the crisis was a purely Congolese affair. But evidence has since piled up of their troops’ activities in North Kivu.’

Risks of a Wider Conflict

The collapse of mediation efforts in late 2024 paved the way for M23’s rapid advance. By January 2025, the rebels had captured key towns, including Masisi and Minova, before launching a decisive assault on Goma. Despite the presence of UN peacekeepers under the MONUSCO mandate and regional forces, Congolese troops were overwhelmed, leading to the city’s fall. The conflict risks escalating into a regional war, with Rwanda leveraging its military superiority to strengthen its negotiating position. Meanwhile, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi faces mounting political pressure as his military failures undermine his credibility. The involvement of external actors, such as Burundi and Southern African forces, adds complexity to the crisis.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇫 🇲🇱 🇳🇪 AES bloc formally leave ECOWAS: Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have officially withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), solidifying their break from the regional bloc. The three military-led governments, which formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in September 2023, have instead focused on strengthening their own security and economic ties. Despite their exit, ECOWAS has urged its remaining members to continue extending trade benefits and free movement privileges to the departing nations in the spirit of regional cooperation. The alliance has since announced plans to deploy a joint force of 5,000 soldiers to combat terrorism, establish a regional investment bank, introduce a common passport, and launch a web-based television platform to counter disinformation.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 🇧🇩 Siang river hydro dam threatens India–China–Bangladesh trilateralism, indigenous communities: India is pressing ahead with the construction of a $13.2 billion hydroelectric dam on the Siang River to counter China’s massive upstream Medog dam in Tibet, sparking local protests and concerns over devastating impacts on millions downstream in India and Bangladesh. The Siang River, sacred to the Adi tribal community, is central to their livelihoods, but the proposed dam will submerge at least 20 villages and partially flood nearly two dozen more, displacing thousands. Amid growing resistance, paramilitary forces have been deployed, highlighting the geostrategic rivalry between India and China, which have clashed over water and security. Experts warn the dams could destabilize the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, heightening flood and earthquake risks while disproportionately harming Indigenous communities dependent on these critical water resources.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Lebanese civilians massacred by IDF after Israel contravene ceasefire’s withdrawal terms: On Sunday, Israeli forces killed at least 22 people, including a Lebanese soldier, during an assault on southern Lebanon. The violence erupted as civilians attempted to return to their homes after Israel missed a deadline to withdraw, as agreed in a ceasefire deal. The Lebanese Ministry of Health reports that over 80 others were injured, while some civilians were detained by Israeli forces. Despite these actions, there are signs of Israeli withdrawal in areas like Ait al-Shaab, where Lebanese residents returned under army protection. The situation remains tense, with concerns about continued violence, as Israel delays its full withdrawal, accusing Lebanon of failing to meet the ceasefire terms. Lebanese President Aoun has urged citizens to trust the army's efforts to safeguard their return.