Amidst the array of growing global geopolitical chaos one country seems to be further creeping into the headlines - Haiti 🇭🇹

So what exactly is going on there?

We take a look in our mid-week special report ⤵️

Background

Well, Haiti, the poorest nation in the Americas, is enduring a profound crisis, marked by an escalation of gang violence, political instability, and a humanitarian catastrophe. This turmoil is rooted in a history of political upheaval, natural disasters, and external interventions, notably since the 29-year dictatorship of François "Papa Doc" Duvalier and his son Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier. The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021 further destabilized the nation, leading to a power vacuum and escalating gang control. The country has not held elections in seven years, with the last elected officials leaving office over a year ago, contributing to a crisis of political legitimacy. Gang violence has surged, with nearly 4,000 people killed and 3,000 kidnapped in 2023 alone. Amidst this chaos, Prime Minister Ariel Henry, seen by some as a continuation of the problem rather than a solution, announced his resignation, ushering in a period of uncertainty about Haiti's governance and future.

Current Situation

Prime Minister Ariel Henry's resignation comes after weeks of intensified gang violence, including attacks on critical infrastructure, escalating to a near-complete control of Port-au-Prince by armed gangs. The situation reached a tipping point with the call for Henry's resignation by influential gang leader Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier and his G9 alliance. Henry, stranded outside Haiti, resigned amidst international pressure and a recognition of the untenable situation. The resignation was announced following emergency talks led by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), which also put forward a proposal for a transitional council aimed at restoring order and paving the way for elections. However, gang leaders like Chérizier have made clear they seek a significant role in the country's governance, challenging the international community's efforts to stabilize Haiti.

The international response, including the proposed deployment of a Kenya-led multinational force to assist Haitian police, has been complicated by political and logistical challenges. Despite international backing, the deployment is on hold, pending the establishment of a functioning government to collaborate with. Meanwhile, gang violence continues unabated, with reports of widespread sexual violence, kidnappings, and thousands displaced from their homes, worsening the already dire humanitarian situation.

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The Future

The future of Haiti remains uncertain, with various factors at play that could shape the nation's trajectory. The establishment of a transitional council, as proposed by CARICOM and supported by international actors, represents a potential path forward. However, the effectiveness of this council in restoring stability and legitimacy to Haiti's political landscape is uncertain, given the deep-rooted nature of the crisis and the significant influence of armed gangs.

The potential deployment of an international security force, while intended to help stabilize the situation, faces skepticism. Questions remain about its ability to address the complex urban warfare environment of Port-au-Prince and whether it can avoid the pitfalls of previous international interventions. Moreover, the resignation of PM Henry, while a significant development, does not directly address the power vacuum or the underlying issues driving gang violence and political instability.

So what exactly will happen? Only time will tell. However, one thing is for certain - the longer the situation continues as it is, the worse things will get.

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