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📰 CIA freezes Ukraine intel

📰 CIA freezes Ukraine intel

and Algiers-Paris feud worsens

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 09, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, OPEC+ confirms plans for a production hike, the Algiers-Paris diplomatic rift deepens, and Romania arrests suspects over an alleged Russia-linked coup plot. Meanwhile, Washington has frozen military and intelligence support for Ukraine—creating a vacuum that the Eurosphere looks to fill.

This week’s main story examines The Arms Trade Treaty and the Indo-Pacific.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 CIA freezes intelligence sharing with Ukraine: The U.S. has halted intelligence sharing with Ukraine, adding further strain to Kyiv’s defensive capabilities, CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed. Reports on the extent of the suspension have been conflicting, with Financial Times stating that all intelligence exchanges have ceased, while Bloomberg initially claimed some information was still being shared. The decision follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s suspension of military aid after a public dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, Trump later acknowledged receiving a letter from Zelensky expressing willingness to engage in peace talks, suggesting that Washington may reconsider its position. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz indicated that if negotiations progress, Trump could lift the freeze on both military assistance and intelligence sharing, though no concrete steps have been announced yet.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 China to implement retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. agricultural exports, defence contractors: Following Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, Beijing retaliated by targeting U.S. agricultural exports and defense contractors. While China did not instigate this escalation, its response signals a firm stance against Washington’s economic pressure. The Chinese government announced additional tariffs of 15% on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, along with 10% duties on soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, and dairy products—hitting key agricultural regions that backed Trump in past elections. As China continues to reduce reliance on U.S. agriculture, Brazil has emerged as its primary food supplier, with their deepening economic ties underscored by a joint Ukraine peace roadmap unveiled in May 2024.

3️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Trump threats undermine Israeli incentive to pursue ceasefire’s second phase, say Hamas: Hamas has accused U.S. President Trump of emboldening Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to break the Gaza ceasefire and intensify restrictions on the enclave. Trump demanded on social media that Hamas release all hostages immediately, including the remains of deceased captives, warning that failure to comply would have severe consequences. His remarks coincided with reports that a Trump envoy had secretly met with Hamas, marking a significant departure from the long-standing U.S. policy of avoiding direct negotiations with the group. Meanwhile, Egypt and Qatar have continued mediating talks between Hamas and U.S. officials, with discussions reportedly focused on implementing the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. While Hamas insists on adhering to the original terms, Israel seeks to prolong the ceasefire to secure hostage releases without committing to an end to the war, further complicating diplomatic efforts.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇺🇳 Sudan pursues genocide case against UAE for RSF links: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) announced that Sudan has filed a lawsuit against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), accusing it of violating the Genocide Convention through support for atrocities committed against the Masalit community in West Darfur. Sudan alleges that the UAE provided direct financial, political, and military backing to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied militias, enabling acts such as mass killings, forced displacement, and destruction of property. In its request, Sudan has asked the ICJ to impose urgent provisional measures, compelling the UAE to halt any actions that could contribute to genocide and prevent armed groups under its influence from committing further crimes. The case will receive priority under Article 74 of the court’s rules, signaling the gravity of the allegations and the potential for legal action against the UAE.

5️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 🇮🇶 Kurdish separatists announce ceasefire after 40 year insurgency in Türkiye: The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has announced its intention to comply with a directive from its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, to lay down arms and end its decades-long insurgency against Turkey. In a statement via the Firat News Agency (ANF), the group’s leadership described Ocalan’s call as marking the beginning of a “new historic process” in the region but insisted that a formal congress, led by Ocalan himself, must precede any dissolution. The PKK also demanded improved conditions for Ocalan, including unrestricted communication and physical freedom. While the announcement was broadcast in Kurdish-majority cities, affiliated groups, such as Syria’s YPG, signaled that Ocalan’s call might not extend to them. Analysts suggest that the PKK’s leadership in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains may set its own conditions before fully adhering to Ocalan’s directive.

Major Story

THE ARMS TRADE TREATY AND THE INDO-PACIFIC

The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), adopted in 2013, was designed to regulate the global arms trade and prevent the illicit circulation of conventional weapons. Its objective is to establish international standards for arms transfers, promote security, and reduce human suffering. The Indo-Pacific region has demonstrated limited engagement with the Treaty, as only 11 states have signed and ratified it, while nine others have signed but not yet ratified. This limited participation contrasts with the region’s status as the world’s largest importer of arms and its growing role in arms production and exports.

Regional Security Dynamics and the Arms Trade

The Indo-Pacific is marked by longstanding tensions, including India-Pakistan hostilities, disputes in the South China Sea, and internal instability in Afghanistan and Myanmar. These conflicts have fueled military expansion and increased arms transfers. Countries including China, Australia, and South Korea are significant arms exporters, while others, including India and Pakistan, are major importers. The region also hosts key transit hubs, making ATT provisions on arms transfers particularly relevant. However, the illicit trade in small arms remains a persistent challenge, exacerbating internal conflicts and organized crime.

Barriers to ATT Adoption and Compliance

Several factors hinder broader ATT engagement in the region. First, national security concerns and skepticism about the Treaty’s effectiveness deter some states, particularly those with growing defense industries. Second, geopolitical rivalries, such as those between China and the U.S. or India and Pakistan, reinforce military buildups and create resistance to external regulations. Third, the region lacks strong regional organizations focused on arms control, making coordinated advocacy difficult. Finally, financial and bureaucratic limitations pose challenges for compliance, particularly for smaller states with limited capacity to meet reporting requirements.

Pathways for Greater Engagement

To enhance ATT participation, targeted efforts should focus on states demonstrating willingness to join while addressing concerns about security and defense industry interests. Strengthening regional dialogues and sub-regional cooperation can build trust and encourage broader participation. Donors and ATT stakeholders can assist by supporting capacity-building initiatives, improving regulatory frameworks, and increasing awareness of the Treaty’s benefits. According to the Toda Institute, engaging civil society, industry stakeholders, and regional think tanks can further promote informed decision-making and sustainable implementation. Addressing these challenges is essential for improving arms trade governance and contributing to long-term security in the Indo-Pacific.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 OPEC+ begins production hike: Multinational oil production cartel OPEC+ announced that it will proceed with its planned oil production increase in April, following renewed pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower prices. This marks the group’s first production hike since 2022, with an initial rise of 138,000 barrels per day, though OPEC+ warned it could adjust the plan based on market conditions. Oil prices, which had surged above $82 per barrel in January, have since dropped to around $71 amid speculation about Trump’s influence on global energy markets. However, uncertainty remains due to U.S. sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, along with potential global tariffs, all of which could further complicate the oil market outlook.

2️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇵🇸 Egypt calls for Arab League summit on Gaza reconstruction: The Arab League will convene in Cairo on March 4 to formulate a collective response to U.S. and Israeli actions concerning Gaza. The summit, led by Egypt, aims to present an alternative that upholds Palestinian rights and focuses on Gaza’s reconstruction. This follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s February 5 remarks about taking over Gaza and resettling Palestinians, a plan swiftly rejected by Egypt. Meanwhile, Israel has blocked humanitarian aid and stalled ceasefire negotiations, escalating tensions during Ramadan. The summit will address a phased reconstruction plan, though funding remains a major challenge, with over $50 billion needed. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations are expected to play a key role in financing, while Jordan and Syria will also push their agendas. However, with the ceasefire uncertain, reconstruction efforts may be delayed as diplomatic mediation continues.

3️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇫🇷 Algiers-Paris diplomatic feud escalates, immigration agreements to be ‘re-examined’: Diplomatic strains between France and Algeria have deepened, with French Prime Minister François Bayrou announcing a review of immigration agreements and plans to deport Algerian nationals. The crisis is entangled in historical grievances, with Algeria perceiving France’s policies as neocolonial, while French right-wing figures exploit anti-immigration rhetoric for political gain. Meanwhile, disputes over France’s stance on Western Sahara and the arrest of Algerian-born writer Boualem Sansal have further soured relations. As political maneuvering intensifies, Algerians in France face increasing scapegoating, underscoring how immigration, security, and colonial memory remain at the heart of this deteriorating relationship.

4️⃣ 🇷🇴 🇷🇺 Romania makes arrests over alleged Russia-linked coup plot: Romanian authorities have arrested six individuals accused of attempting to overthrow the government with alleged Russian support, prosecutors announced. Among those targeted in the investigation is a 101-year-old former army major general, whose home was raided. The arrests coincided with Romania expelling the Russian embassy’s military attaché and his deputy for violating diplomatic protocols—a move to which Moscow vowed retaliation. According to Romanian intelligence services, the suspects aimed to destabilize the state by dismantling its constitutional framework, dissolving political parties, and forming a new government under their control. Authorities claim the group actively sought assistance from Russian embassy officials, two of whom were expelled for allegedly collecting strategic intelligence and supporting the plot. Russia’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the allegations as unfounded, accusing Bucharest of fabricating Russian involvement in its internal affairs.