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This week in the Middle East, Trump secures major deals across the Gulf, militias clash in Tripoli following Gnewa’s assassination, and the PKK announces its dissolution. Elsewhere, the U.S.–China trade war enters a pause, and Latin American leaders signal a growing realignment toward Beijing.

Today’s lead story: India and Pakistan edge toward de-escalation as both sides signal intent to uphold a fragile ceasefire.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇦 Trump secures $600 billion investment deal with Saudi Arabia: President Donald Trump announced a landmark $600 billion Saudi investment package in the U.S. during a forum in Riyadh, marking a new chapter in bilateral ties. The agreement includes major defence and security, energy, tech, and infrastructure deals—such as DataVolt’s $20 billion investment in AI data centers, $80 billion in joint tech initiatives, and over $140 billion in defense purchases. Trump hailed the partnership as transformative, highlighting job creation and national security gains. Additional agreements span critical minerals, aviation, cultural cooperation, and energy innovation, reinforcing the deepening economic and strategic alliance between the two nations.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Russia seeks diplomatic leverage through Iran-U.S. nuclear talks: Moscow views indirect nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States as a constructive step to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to avoid potential military strikes that could destabilise the region. Moscow supports diplomacy to preserve regional stability, limit U.S. military activity near its southern borders, and reinforce its global role after setbacks in Syria and Ukraine. By facilitating talks, Russia hopes to regain diplomatic standing and influence over broader geopolitical issues, including the Ukraine conflict. Despite concerns that renewed Iran-U.S. engagement could weaken Moscow-Tehran ties, Russia still endorses the dialogue as a means to project itself as a key powerbroker and counterbalance to U.S. hegemony.

3️⃣ 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso junta implicated in massacres of civilians, JNIM carries out retaliatory attacks says HRW: In March 2025, Burkinabè armed forces and pro-government militias reportedly massacred over 130 Fulani civilians near Solenzo during Operation Green Whirlwind 2, Human Rights Watch has found. Witnesses described coordinated military and militia attacks across Banwa and Sourou provinces, with civilians—mostly women, children, and the elderly—trapped and killed. The violence triggered retaliatory attacks by al-Qaeda-linked JNIM, killing at least 100 more. Despite government claims of anti-terrorist operations, evidence indicates the Fulani community was directly targeted, raising grave concerns of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇧🇷 🇨🇴 🇨🇱 Lula, Petro, and Boric travel to Beijing as Latin America pivots toward China: Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has called for “indestructible” ties with China during a visit to Beijing, where he criticised Trump’s tariff policies and praised China’s global trade role. Colombia’s Gustavo Petro and Chile’s Gabriel Boric also travelled to Beijing for a CELAC-China meeting, signalling a broader regional pivot toward Beijing amid U.S. retreat from multilateralism. Lula, whose officials announced $4.6bn in new Chinese investment, is expected to seek further infrastructure deals in a meeting with Xi Jinping. Experts say the visits reflect Latin American efforts to navigate a shifting global order by forging stronger economic and diplomatic partnerships outside the U.S.-centric system.

5️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇺🇳 Junta violates ceasefire as dozens killed in central Myanmar airstrike on school: A Myanmar military airstrike on a school in Ohe Htein Twin village, Sagaing region, reportedly killed over 20 students and two teachers on Monday, wounding dozens more, according to resistance and aid sources. The attack, which occurred despite the military’s declared ceasefire to support earthquake relief, has been denied by state media as “fake news.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed deep concern, reiterating that schools must be protected in conflict. Local opposition figures claim the strike targeted a civilian site in a resistance stronghold without recent clashes, and follows a pattern of aerial assaults against schools and villages amid Myanmar’s escalating civil conflict.

Major Story

🇮🇳 🇵🇰 INDIA-PAKISTAN CEASEFIRE: A FAMILIAR PATTERN IN A NEW STRATEGIC ERA

The latest India-Pakistan clash, sparked by a deadly April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians, followed a familiar trajectory: a dubiously linked terror incident, reciprocal military escalation, and an eventual ceasefire—this time brokered on May 10. Yet, unlike previous crises, this confrontation involved direct missile strikes on military installations and the operational deployment of loitering drones and advanced fighter jets, marking an unprecedented escalation in the region’s long-running rivalry.

Rising Risks in a Changing Diplomatic Landscape

Historically, the United States played a crucial role in de-escalating Indo-Pakistani conflicts, from Clinton’s mediation in Kargil (1999) to behind-the-scenes diplomacy during the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot standoff. Today, however, Washington’s diplomatic bandwidth is stretched thin, with no ambassadors in Delhi or Islamabad and key regional posts unfilled. While President Trump claimed U.S. involvement in the latest ceasefire, both sides have downplayed external mediation—leaving a void no other power, including China, can credibly fill.

Religious Nationalism and Multi-Domain Conflict

Domestic political shifts are hardening the conflict’s ideological edges. Modi’s Hindu nationalism and Pakistani Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir’s embrace of the two-nation theory have infused strategic decisions with sectarian undertones. The naming of military operations—India’s “Operation Sindoor” and Pakistan’s “Bunyan-un-Marsoos”—reflects these deeply symbolic narratives. Meanwhile, warfare is no longer confined to border skirmishes. The conflict saw the use of Chinese and Western weapons systems, drone strikes on radar installations, and cyberattacks targeting military networks. Information warfare and social media propaganda have intensified, inflaming nationalist sentiments and reducing space for moderation.

A Fragile Pause in a More Dangerous World

While the ceasefire has temporarily halted hostilities, the escalation pathways are now broader and more volatile. Nuclear doctrines remain ambiguous, and the breakdown of international norms has made military actions once deemed taboo appear tolerable. With diminished global mediation and an increasingly multi-domain conflict environment, the region faces a more perilous strategic reality. This crisis may have ended, but its lessons suggest the next one could be far harder to contain.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇱🇾 Armed groups clash in Tripoli as Gnewa’s death leaves power vacuum: Renewed violence has engulfed Tripoli following the assassination of Abdel Ghani al-Kikli (Gnewa), a powerful militia leader and vocal critic of Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba. His killing triggered a fierce struggle between rival armed factions aligned with the Tripoli-based government—pitting the interior ministry’s Al-Rada force against defence ministry-aligned units, including the 444 Brigade. Gnewa’s death created a sudden power vacuum, with his loyalists fleeing and rival groups seizing control of strategic sites. Dabaiba’s declaration that the era of “parallel security systems” was over provoked backlash and may have sparked the escalation, with Al-Rada fearing they were next. While eastern Libyan factions remain on the sidelines for now, their entry could plunge the capital into all-out war. For Tripoli’s residents, the violence marks a grim return to insecurity and political chaos.

2️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇸🇾 Trump says U.S. will remove sanctions Syria sanctions regime: During his visit to Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump announced the end of all U.S. sanctions on Syria, framing the move as a fresh opportunity for the war-torn nation to recover and rebuild. Speaking at an investment summit in Riyadh, Trump said the measures had served their purpose and that Syria now deserved “a chance at greatness.” The decision, reportedly influenced by talks with regional leaders including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Erdogan, marks a major shift in U.S. policy. While welcomed by Syria’s interim government, questions remain about the long-term implications, especially amid ongoing Israeli strikes and regional tensions that continue to challenge Syria’s fragile recovery efforts.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇨🇳 🇺🇳 Chinese-made weapons being funnelled into Darfur by UAE, Amnesty finds: Amnesty International has revealed that Chinese-made guided bombs and howitzers, re-exported by the United Arab Emirates UAE, have been deployed by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Darfur and Khartoum—violating the UN arms embargo. Analysis of digital evidence confirmed the use of Norinco’s GB50A guided bombs and AH-4 howitzers, with the UAE as the only known importer of the latter. Amnesty has called this a flagrant breach of international law, urging the UN to expand the arms embargo and demanding accountability for continued weapon transfers. China and the UAE, both Arms Trade Treaty signatories, now face scrutiny for enabling potential war crimes through negligent arms oversight.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 All 2.1 Gazans face life-threatening food insecurity, says IPC: A  report from the UN’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reveals that all 2.1 million people in Gaza face life-threatening food insecurity, with nearly a quarter already starving. This crisis, deepened by 19 months of war and a full Israeli blockade since March 2, stems from Israel’s restrictions on aid and goods as part of its military strategy. The IPC’s analysis, based on an Israeli-U.S. aid plan that drastically reduces distribution sites and coverage, warns that even partial implementation would worsen mass starvation. The Famine Review Committee also issued public caution, warning that calibrating aid to keep Gaza just below famine is dangerously unsustainable and is causing mass death. While no formal famine has been declared, the report underscores that Gaza is already in a catastrophic hunger crisis driven by systematic Israeli policy.

5️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 Implications of PKK Disarmament for Iraq and Syria: The PKK’s decision to disband marks a turning point with wide-reaching consequences across Iraq and Syria. In northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains, the longstanding headquarters of the group, uncertainty looms over the future of its fighters. Ankara’s assertive military strategy—framed as neutralising terrorism at the source—has involved cross-border operations that Baghdad views as violations of its sovereignty. As Syria's SDF considers absorbing itself into Damascus' armed forces, and with the PKK now banned in Iraq and disarmament under way, Turkey’s justification for its presence in Syria and Iraq weakens, though Ankara may seek to remain for broader strategic reasons. Economically, the move could stabilise Iraq’s Kurdish region, reduce attacks on infrastructure, and remove a barrier to large-scale projects like the Development Road. While it may ease tensions between rival Kurdish factions and Turkey, political rivalries and ideological divides are likely to persist.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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