Geopolitics Weekly
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🌍 Chinese troops on Europe's border

🌍 Chinese troops on Europe's border

and NATO reaffirms support for Ukraine

Ross Crabtree
July 15, 2024

Welcome back,

The biggest news of the week was, of course, the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally. However, multiple Biden gaffes at the Washington NATO summit and the antics of Hungarian President Viktor Orban have also captured headlines globally.

The return of US long-range missiles to Germany, and the increase in tensions that come with that development, also slipped under the radar…

More details below ⬇️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇧🇾 Belarus: Chinese soldiers arrived in Belarus for a joint anti-terrorism exercise from July 8-19, aimed at strengthening Belarusian-Chinese military cooperation. This comes as Belarus joins the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, signaling increased ties with Beijing and Moscow.

2️⃣🇺🇸 USA: NATO leaders labeled China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine, highlighting Beijing’s deepening ties with Moscow and its expanding nuclear and space capabilities. The final communiqué urged China to cease all support to Russia’s war effort, noting the transfer of dual-use materials to Russia's defense sector. China’s foreign ministry criticized NATO’s stance, calling it “malicious” and accused NATO of a “cold war mentality” while maintaining that China promotes peace talks for Ukraine.

3️⃣🇨🇳 China: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, marking a "peace mission" aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Orban’s visit follows trips to Russia and Ukraine and highlights China’s call for major powers to foster a conducive environment for dialogue. Xi emphasized the need for a political solution through an early ceasefire, while Orban praised China’s peace initiatives and described it as a stabilizing global force.

4️⃣🇮🇷 Iran: The Iranian destroyer Sahand capsized in Bandar Abbas, killing two officers and injuring several others during port repairs. While state media cites water ingress as the cause, some analysts suggest an Israeli cyber attack, highlighting the vessel's vulnerability to hacks. This incident follows a series of naval misfortunes for Iran, including the sinking of the Damavand in 2018 and the Kharg in 2021.

5️⃣🇨🇳 China: OpenAI’s recent block on its services in China has sparked a rush among Chinese AI developers to attract users to homegrown models like SenseTime's SenseNova 5.5. As tensions rise between Beijing and Washington, Chinese companies like Baidu, Zhipu AI, and Tencent Cloud are offering free tokens and migration services to former OpenAI users. This move may accelerate the development of Chinese AI, despite challenges posed by US export restrictions on advanced semiconductors.

Major Story

Credit: Sergeant Paul Shaw LBIPP (Army).

Nato’s latest summit in Washington DC has reaffirmed its unwavering support for Ukraine, marking a significant commitment to Ukraine's future within the alliance. While a formal timeline for Ukraine’s Nato membership remains undecided, the 32-member alliance emphasized an "irreversible path" to membership, promising €40bn ($43.3bn) in aid over the next year, including F-16 fighter jets and air defense support. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated, “Support to Ukraine is not charity - it is in our own security interest.”

This commitment comes amid growing geopolitical tensions, with Nato identifying Russia as the "most significant and direct threat" to security. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that F-16 jets are being transferred to Ukraine, fulfilling a long-standing request from Kyiv. Nato’s new unit to coordinate military aid and training for Ukraine is part of a broader effort to integrate Ukraine’s military capabilities with the alliance. Despite these advancements, a formal membership invitation will only be extended once "conditions are met," highlighting Ukraine's progress on democratic, economic, and security reforms.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s presence at the summit underscored the high stakes. He met with various world leaders, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and US political leaders, to solidify cross-party support for Ukraine. The summit, which celebrated Nato’s 75th anniversary, also served as a reminder of the alliance’s enduring unity and resolve, even as domestic politics in member countries like the US pose potential challenges. President Biden reaffirmed Nato's commitment to defending its territory, emphasizing the need for increased defense investment to counteract Russia’s wartime production efforts.

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Other News

1️⃣🇬🇧 UK: Former army chief General Sir Patrick Sanders has warned that the world faces a threat from "new axis powers"—Russia, China, and Iran—more dangerous than the Nazis. He called on NATO to re-arm and modernize to prevent a potential third world war within five years. As NATO members gather in Washington for their 75th anniversary, the war in Ukraine and recent Russian attacks are high on the agenda.

2️⃣🇷🇺 Russia: An elite North Korean army training delegation has arrived in Russia, marking the first military exchange between the nations since Putin's visit to Pyongyang and the signing of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Kim Jong-un. This move raises concerns in the West about increased military cooperation, especially in the context of the Ukraine war. The US and South Korea, wary of potential military support exchanges, have criticized this partnership, fearing significant military implications.

3️⃣🇺🇸 USA: Former President Donald Trump, 78, was injured in the ear during an attempted assassination at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The Secret Service neutralized the shooter, identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, who fired from an elevated position outside the venue. Trump, who was quickly taken to the hospital and later released, vowed to continue his campaign and attend the upcoming Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇩🇪 Germany: The US will deploy Tomahawk, SM-6, and hypersonic missiles in Germany starting in 2026, the first such deployment since the Cold War. Announced at NATO's 75th anniversary summit, this move aims to fill a significant gap in European missile capability and encourage European investment in long-range missiles. Russia condemned the decision, promising a "military response," while German Greens criticized Chancellor Scholz for his lack of communication on the matter.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣🇷🇼 Rwanda: General elections on July 15, 2024, are expected to see incumbent President Paul Kagame secure a fourth term. The ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) is also likely to retain its majority in parliament, given the tightly controlled political environment.

2️⃣🇸🇾 Syria: Parliamentary elections on July 15, 2024, are expected to reinforce the Baath Party's dominance of the People’s Assembly. The party, led by President Bashar al-Assad and its allies, is anticipated to win the majority of the 250 seats.

3️⃣🇺🇸 USA: From July 15-18, 2024, the US Republican Party National Convention will take place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates will select the party’s nominees for president and vice-president in the upcoming 2024 US presidential election.

4️⃣🇮🇹 Italy: The G7 trade ministers’ meeting will be held on July 16-17, 2024, in Villa San Giovanni, Reggio Calabria. Ministers from the world's leading economies will gather to discuss global trade issues and policies.