Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 China's Peru port

📰 China's Peru port

and Trump reshapes foreign policy

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
November 17, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, multilateral conferences took centre stage with APEC in Lima, Peru, and COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, while escalating violence and instability continued to grip Ukraine, Haiti, and the Middle East. In less-publicised developments, Türkiye launched drone strikes targeting PKK-held areas in northern Iraq, and reports emerged of French military technology being deployed by Sudan's RSF.

The week’s headline focuses on Washington’s pre-election ultimatum to Israel, which has failed to guarantee the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, further intensifying the region’s humanitarian crisis.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇪 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 APEC Summit held in Peru, highlights U.S.–China rivalry in Latin America: The APEC Leaders’ Summit in Lima, Peru, brought together U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, spotlighting the intensifying competition for influence in Latin America. Representing 21 economies and 60% of global GDP, the summit served as a platform for both nations to showcase their regional strategies. Biden sought to reassure Latin American leaders of continued U.S. support, but China’s concrete investments, including the $3.5 billion Chancay port project led by state-owned COSCO, captured significant attention. For Peruvians, the port represents economic growth and skilled job opportunities, though concerns linger over COSCO’s exclusive operational rights and potential security risks. While Xi’s initiatives highlighted China’s Belt and Road ambitions, Biden’s Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity (APEP) remained largely aspirational. The summit underscored Latin America’s growing preference for partnerships offering swift, tangible benefits.

2️⃣ 🇧🇩 Challenges and opportunities for Bangladesh’s interim government: The interim administration in Bangladesh, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, faces the formidable task of reforming a nation grappling with deep institutional decay following Sheikh Hasina's ousting. Since taking power on 8 August, Yunus’s government has enjoyed strong public support but must contend with soaring expectations for swift political, economic, and governance reforms. Years of authoritarian rule have left institutions fragile, while the economy struggles under the weight of recent protests and uncertainty. According to International Crisis Group, this moment offers Bangladesh a rare chance to pivot away from past cronyism and authoritarianism. Swift action on corruption, improved public services, and constitutional reforms are essential to rebuild trust and prevent further instability. Success will hinge on Yunus's ability to balance rivalries, secure international support, and unite political actors around a shared vision for a democratic future.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 European Union prepares €300m defence materiel fund for Ukraine: The EU has initiated its first-ever funded joint arms procurement among member states, allocating €300 million for air defence systems, armoured vehicles, and artillery ammunition, part of which will support Ukraine. Previously, the EU’s defence aid to Ukraine relied on ad hoc contributions outside its budget. European Commission Vice-President Margrethe Vestager noted the plan aims to strengthen the EU’s defence industry and Ukraine’s capabilities. Although the EU missed its initial target to deliver one million artillery shells to Kyiv by March 2024, diplomacy chief Josep Borrell pledged this would be achieved by year-end. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed hope that Marco Rubio, Donald Trump’s pick for U.S. Secretary of State, would adopt a “peace through strength” stance. Rubio, once a proponent of assertive U.S. foreign policy, has recently shifted towards Trump’s “America First” agenda.

4️⃣ 🇦🇿 COP29 held in Baku, Azerbaijan: The COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, marked a critical moment in the global response to climate change as nations grappled with the growing urgency of rising emissions and intensifying natural disasters. The summit, dubbed the “Finance COP,” centred on mobilising climate funding. Wealthy nations revisited their unmet pledge of $100 billion annually to support developing countries in transitioning to clean energy and enhancing climate resilience. Delegates also addressed loss and damage financing, building on the establishment of a vulnerable nations fund, though its $700 million allocation fell far short of the required amount. Geopolitical tensions and Donald Trump’s re-election as a climate sceptic cast a shadow over proceedings. To mitigate this, Azerbaijan called for a global “truce,” fostering focus on climate goals. Key players, including Brazil and the UAE, unveiled updated targets, setting a new course for global climate action.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇷 UN nuclear watchdog chief heads to Tehran to discuss Iran’s nuclear program: The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mariano Grossi, visited Iran to discuss its nuclear program amid rising Middle East tensions, and uncertainty about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s approach to Iran. Grossi’s talks will focus on a March 2023 agreement aimed at enhancing cooperation between Iran and the IAEA, especially regarding the resolution of issues tied to undeclared nuclear activities and expanded monitoring. This visit follows earlier discussions with Iranian officials at the UN General Assembly. While Iran’s nuclear program advances—including uranium enrichment up to 60%—Grossi has warned of potential nuclear weapon capabilities. With Trump’s return to office, Iran faces divided views on future relations with the U.S.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇺🇸 U.S. ULTIMATUM TO ISRAEL FAILS TO ENSURE ARRIVAL OF HUMANITARIAN AID 🇵🇸 🇮🇱

Background

Humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza have drastically declined, reaching lows unseen since December. Despite a US ultimatum for increased aid, Israel allowed only an average of 57 trucks per day in October—far below the 350-truck minimum requested by the US and the 600-truck level aid agencies deem necessary. Recently, only 8,805 tonnes of food crossed Israeli checkpoints, with distribution hurdles causing critical shortages.

Security Council Addresses Food Crisis Amid Ongoing Offensive

In response to an alarming famine warning from the Famine Review Committee (FRC) for northern Gaza, the UN Security Council convenes under the “Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict” agenda. Humanitarian and rights officials, including Joyce Msuya from the UN and a Food and Agriculture Organization representative, are expected to brief on the escalating risks. The situation has become especially dire in Jabalia and surrounding areas under prolonged siege since Israel’s 5 October military offensive, which has devastated the region and disrupted aid.

Mounting Humanitarian and Security Concerns

The UN and aid organisations report that restrictions, shortages, and insecurity prevent essential aid deliveries, with Israeli officials often blocking access for humanitarian convoys. UN personnel describe an “apocalyptic” landscape where displacement affects over 80% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, food and medical supplies are critically scarce, and inflation pushes basic goods out of reach. Adding to the crisis, looting by criminal groups exacerbates the aid shortage.

Calls for Immediate Action and Ceasefire

UN officials will likely urge the Security Council to facilitate open humanitarian corridors and an immediate ceasefire. However, efforts toward truce remain stalled as US-brokered talks face deadlock. Meanwhile, the deteriorating humanitarian conditions compel renewed calls for accountability and adherence to international humanitarian law, as the region faces a crisis on multiple fronts.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 EU ambassador to Beijing expresses intention to avoid Europe-China trade war: Eager to avoid a trade war with China, Jorge Toledo—the EU's ambassador to China—has conceded that after five years of negotiations, progress has been minimal. He expressed growing concerns over the lack of fair market access for European medical devices in China, revealing that European manufacturers are being discriminated against in public procurement. Tensions between the two sides have escalated recently, with the EU launching an investigation into Chinese electric vehicle imports, while China responded by probing EU pork and dairy exports and restricting brandy imports. Last week, the EU imposed new tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese EVs. Toledo emphasised that the EU is not seeking conflict but rather transparency and a level playing field in trade.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 European Commission Vice-President condemns North Gaza ethnic cleansing, Smotrich announces West Bank annexation plan: EU High Representative Josep Borrell has condemned Israel's recent airstrike on Gaza's Jabalia, which left many civilians dead. Borrell’s statement raised concerns over what he described as "ethnic cleansing" in northern Gaza, citing forced displacements and the use of hunger as a weapon—both of which breach international law. The UN's IPC alert has also warned of imminent famine without immediate aid access. As the occupying power, Israel is urged to facilitate humanitarian aid, while the international community and Israel’s allies are called on to act swiftly to end Palestinian suffering and secure the release of hostages. Meanwhile, Israel's far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has initiated plans to annex the West Bank, seeking U.S. recognition under President-elect Donald Trump. Smotrich, who also oversees the Defence Ministry’s administration of the West Bank, has declared 2025 as "the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria."

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇮🇱 Germany’s military assistance to Israel violates international law: In late October, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock defended Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians in a parliamentary address, sparking international criticism. The UN’s special rapporteur on Palestine, Francesca Albanese, warned that Germany’s alignment with a state allegedly committing international crimes is not only a political choice but one with legal repercussions. Many have denounced Germany’s unwavering pro-Israel stance, which includes censorship, police raids, bans on keffiyehs in schools, and repression of pro-Palestine protests—all attributed to its historical guilt. Chancellor Olaf Scholz reaffirmed this support, pledging Germany’s loyalty to Israel. Sociologist Jürgen Mackert argues that while Germany claims to have learned from its history, it remains trapped in selectively remembering the Holocaust while ignoring its colonial crimes in Namibia, thus perpetuating support for actions seen as genocidal, without confronting its own past of “annihilating the Other.”

4️⃣ 🇹🇩 Boko Haram clash with Chadian military leaves over 100 dead: Boko Haram insurgents killed 17 Chadian soldiers in a weekend attack on a military post in western Chad, according to a statement from Chad’s army. The clash, which occurred in the Lake Chad region, also left 96 militants dead, said army spokesperson Gen. Issakh Acheikh on national television, though he withheld further details. This area—increasingly targeted by Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa—has seen a rise in attacks following a lull after Chad’s 2020 military campaign to destroy insurgent strongholds. Last month, a Boko Haram assault claimed the lives of 40 soldiers, prompting President Mahamat Deby Itno to intensify efforts to remove militants from Lake Chad. Chad, with a population of nearly 18 million, has been struggling with political instability, particularly after Deby Itno’s election following his father’s death in 2021.

5️⃣ 🇮🇩 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Indonesia’s new president asserts non-alignment, calls for ‘collaboration with China’ ahead of Washington visit: Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, emphasised collaboration over confrontation with China after signing $10 billion in new agreements at a business forum in Beijing on Sunday. Speaking at the forum, Subianto expressed his desire for Indonesia to contribute to China’s rise as both an economic and civilizational power. "Collaboration, not confrontation, is the path to peace and prosperity," he said. Subianto is concluding the first leg of his inaugural overseas trip, which includes visits to the U.S., Peru, and Brazil for the APEC and G20 summits. During his meeting with President Xi Jinping, the two leaders agreed to strengthen ties, adding security as a new pillar of their cooperation and planning a joint foreign and defence ministers' meeting for 2025. Subianto reiterated Indonesia’s long standing nonalignment and respect for all major global powers.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇮🇶 🇹🇷 Turkiye conducts drone strikes on PKK-held parts of Northern Iraq: Turkish drone strikes have killed five members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq, according to Iraqi Kurdistan's counter-terrorism service and local security sources. The first strike targeted a vehicle near Dohuk, killing three, including a senior PKK official. A second strike on Sunday targeted a vehicle in Sinjar, killing two fighters from the Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS), a PKK-affiliated militia. Turkiye frequently conducts airstrikes in northern Iraq, targeting PKK militants. The PKK has been involved in an insurgency against Turkiye since 1984, initially aiming for an independent Kurdish state, but later shifting its goal to seeking greater Kurdish rights and autonomy within Turkiye.

🇸🇩 🇫🇷 🇦🇪 French military technology reportedly being used by RSF in Sudan: Amnesty International has called on France to investigate the potential misuse of its military systems by Sudan’s paramilitary forces, which could violate an arms embargo. The group identified the French-made Galix defence system being used on armoured vehicles, manufactured by the UAE, a key supplier of arms to Sudan's Rapid Support Force (RSF). While France can legally export weapons to the UAE, Amnesty argues that French authorities and arms companies have a responsibility to monitor whether the Galix system is then illegally transferred to Sudan when mounted on UAE-produced Nimr Ajban vehicles. The ongoing conflict between the RSF and Sudanese government forces has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions since April 2023. Both the UN and EU have imposed arms embargoes on Sudan, particularly in Darfur.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇸🇴 Somaliland goes to the polls amid rising Horn of Africa tensions: Somaliland—a self-declared independent region in Somalia—is holding a presidential election today, after the 2022 election was delayed. Although it remains unrecognised internationally and is legally part of Somalia, Somaliland declared its independence in 1991. “The elections are on track,” said Mohamed Warsame Dualeh, former presidential advisor and member of the Somaliland People's Party, adding that the National Election Commission has done “exceptional” work and the public is ready to vote peacefully. Mubarak Abdulahi Daljir, a vice president at Admas University in Hargeisa, noted the election will end two years of political instability and bolster Somaliland’s international image.Tensions in the Horn of Africa have escalated since Somaliland signed a January MoU with Ethiopia to build a naval base and enhance trade at Somaliland's Berbera port. Somalia condemned the deal, expelling Ethiopia's ambassador in April, while in August, it entered a security pact with Egypt, receiving new arms support from Cairo.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 Germany schedules February snap election: Germany will hold snap elections on February 23 following last week’s collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition, aiming to restore governmental stability. The date was a compromise between the conservative opposition, which sought a January election to avoid prolonged uncertainty, and Scholz, who preferred mid-March to allow additional preparation time. The February vote is conditional on a confidence vote set for December 16, which Scholz is expected to lose. If so, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag, with elections required within 60 days. Steinmeier supported this timeline, calling it "realistic" and urging all political parties to work together responsibly during the transition to uphold Germany’s security and international commitments.