Hello and welcome back. 

President Erdoğan moves to deepen Turkey’s reach across Africa’s Sahel corridor, while in the Middle East,  Israel escalates strikes in southern Lebanon in defiance of a ceasefire, and Greece reignites fossil fuel exploration in the Mediterranean.

In the Pacific, China’s expanding influence and the islands’ fight for sovereignty unfold amid the steady erosion of U.S. power in the region.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 UN weighs Gaza stabilisation force amid disputes over mandate and leadership: A UN Security Council resolution establishing an international stabilisation force for Gaza is expected within two weeks, though disagreements persist over its mandate — particularly whether the US should lead it, how it will coordinate with a Palestinian police force, and when Israel must withdraw. Continued Israeli strikes have shattered the ceasefire, with 115 Palestinians killed last week, intensifying pressure on the UN and Arab states to prevent Gaza’s descent into chaos.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 RSF accepts ceasefire proposal in Sudan: The UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced its acceptance of a US-led proposal for a humanitarian ceasefire. The truce, brokered by the “Quad” — comprising the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE — aims to alleviate the war’s catastrophic humanitarian toll and improve civilian protection. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have yet to formally respond, insisting previously that the RSF must withdraw from occupied cities before any truce.

3️⃣ 🇳🇬 🇺🇸 Abuja calls for calm dialogue after Trump threats: Donald Trump vowed a “swift and fierce” response to what he described as an “existential threat” facing Christians in Nigeria, accusing the government of inaction — claims widely echoed by US evangelical conservatives but dismissed by experts as baseless. Abuja stressed its openness to cooperation against terrorism, provided its sovereignty is respected.

4️⃣ 🇵🇪 🇲🇽 Peru severs diplomatic ties with Mexico over asylum for former prime minister: Lima has cut diplomatic relations with Mexico after the Mexican government granted asylum to former Peruvian Prime Minister Betssy Chávez, who faces prosecution for her alleged role in the failed 2022 coup led by ousted President Pedro Castillo.

5️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Brussels blocks EU loan for Ukraine, risking IMF aid and investor confidence: Brussels’ refusal to endorse a proposed €140 billion EU loan for Ukraine, financed by frozen Russian state assets, has jeopardised Kyiv’s chances of securing critical support from the International Monetary Fund. EU officials warn that without the loan, the IMF may withhold its planned $8 billion package, potentially triggering a collapse in investor confidence and worsening Ukraine’s fiscal crisis. With Washington scaling back aid, the EU is under pressure to fill the gap.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇸🇧 🇫🇲 🇻🇺 🇫🇯 CHINA’S PACIFIC POWER PLAY AND THE STRUGGLE FOR ISLAND SOVEREIGNTY

As U.S.-China rivalry intensifies across the Indo-Pacific, the Pacific Islands, twelve small nations scattered between the Philippines and Hawaii, have become a new front in the contest for regional influence. Over the past two decades, Beijing has poured investments, loans, and infrastructure projects into the islands, courting governments that see Chinese support as a source of leverage and development. Yet as China’s influence deepens, the islands’ “Blue Pacific” vision of unity and self-determination faces growing strain, with democratic institutions under mounting pressure.

Washington’s wavering engagement

The United States, long complacent in this hemisphere, began reversing course under the first Trump and Biden administrations, launching new partnerships and aid programs to counter China’s reach. But the second Trump administration’s retrenchment—marked by USAID’s regional mission closure, aid freezes, and blanket tariffs on island economies—has weakened U.S. credibility. Climate change denial has further alienated Pacific nations that view rising seas as an existential threat. Washington’s allies in Canberra have stepped in, but their resources are insufficient to match Beijing’s scale.

Beijing’s maritime ambitions

China’s Pacific strategy has evolved from diplomacy and investment to securing strategic footholds. Through dual-use infrastructure—ports, airstrips, and maritime mapping—Beijing aims to extend its naval reach and undermine U.S. dominance across successive “island chains.” Since 2019, several nations have switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, tightening Beijing’s grip. The People’s Liberation Army now routinely operates in Micronesia and Melanesia, while Chinese coast guard and research vessels expand surveillance and law enforcement roles under the guise of cooperation.

Preserving sovereignty amid rivalry

For Pacific governments, the challenge lies in balancing great-power competition without losing autonomy. Transactional aid and militarisation pose spoilers to the Pacific Islands Forum’s pledge to keep the region demilitarised and free from external coercion.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 🇺🇳 Israel intensifies strikes on Lebanon: Israel carried out a new wave of airstrikes across southern Lebanon, in what Beirut and Hizbollah condemned as a blatant violation of the year-old ceasefire. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun denounced the attacks as “a full-fledged crime under international law.” UN peacekeepers warned that the escalating bombardments risk civilian lives. The near-daily Israeli ceasefire breaches have pushed the fragile truce to the brink of collapse.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Putin orders roadmap for rare-earth extraction to compete with China: The Russian president has directed his cabinet to devise a national plan for rare-earth mineral extraction by December, part of an effort to challenge China’s control over the market for critical metals used in electronics, electric vehicles, and weapons systems. The order also calls for new transport and logistics hubs along Russia’s borders with China and North Korea to bolster trade and infrastructure.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇳🇪 🇧🇫 🇲🇱 Erdoğan expands Turkey’s influence across the Sahel: Once focused mainly on North Africa’s former Ottoman territories, Turkey has turned its attention southward, deepening its presence across the Sahel. Following the wave of coups in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, coupled with France’s retreat and Washington’s reduced engagement under President Trump, Russia and China have dominated security and resource sectors, and Turkey has rapidly emerged as a key political and economic partner.

4️⃣ 🇲🇬 🇲🇦 🇰🇪 🇹🇿 Gen Z protests reshape Africa’s political landscape: From Antananarivo to Rabat, a new generation of African protesters is declaring that the social contract has collapsed. Over the past year and a half, youth-led movements have shaken Morocco’s monarchy, forced Kenyan President William Ruto to retract a divisive tax plan, and toppled Madagascar’s government. Unlike the Arab Spring, which targeted autocrats, these uprisings are erupting in nominal democracies that have failed to deliver jobs, services, or accountability.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 US Senate rejects bid to limit President Trump’s war powers in Venezuela: The US Senate narrowly voted 49–51 to block a Democratic resolution that would have required President Donald Trump to seek congressional approval before expanding military action in Venezuela. The defeat, largely along party lines, leaves Trump free to continue strikes on alleged drug cartel targets and pursue broader operations against President Nicolás Maduro’s government.

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Tips & Suggestions

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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