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Vietnam balances ties between Washington and Beijing, while the UN extends its mission in Haiti. In Africa, Islamic State-linked ADF militants kill 66 civilians in eastern Congo, and Cameroon’s President Biya eyes a seventh term amid health concerns and mounting political fatigue. Meanwhile, Iran’s threats to block the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained by legal norms and strategic precedent.

Our lead story examines the growing risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait — and the urgent need for credible deterrence, flexible reassurance, and effective crisis management to prevent escalation.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Trump reverses arms freeze as Kremlin’s ceasefire terms clash with Ukraine’s red lines: President Donald Trump, once confident in his ability to broker peace in Ukraine, has grown frustrated with Moscow after failing to secure even a temporary ceasefire. On July 8, he condemned Putin’s conduct and reversed a recent Pentagon freeze on arms to Kyiv, that defence secretary Pete Hegseth had reportedly imposed unilaterally. Talks in Istanbul have revealed irreconcilable gaps between Russian and Ukrainian positions: Moscow demands Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied regions and recognition of annexed lands, while Ukraine insists on starting negotiations only after a ceasefire. Russia also seeks Ukrainian neutrality, disarmament, and the suppression of pro-Ukrainian nationalism. Kyiv rejects such terms, though it implicitly accepts temporary Russian control over some areas. Humanitarian progress, including prisoner swaps, has been limited. Ultimately, Russia’s demands are designed to be unacceptable—reinforcing fears that the Kremlin is using diplomacy to stall, not settle, the war.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Israeli air strikes hit Damascus as violence escalates in Suwayda: Israeli air strikes pounded Damascus on Wednesday, targeting Syria’s defence ministry, military compounds, and areas near the presidential palace. Explosions rocked Umayyad Square, killing over a dozen civilians. Strikes also hit the southern Daraa and Suwayda provinces, including drone attacks on military vehicles and F-35 raids on Syrian army brigades. Ten security personnel were reportedly killed. The assault follows deadly sectarian clashes in Suwayda between Druze fighters and government forces, with over 300 killed since Sunday. Israel, using protection of the Druze community as a pretext for their strikes—although analysts point toward opportunism to eliminate Assad-era arms caches—signalled more attacks to come. Meanwhile, Druze leaders have expressed anger over government shelling and alleged imposed ceasefires. Turkey condemned the Israeli attacks, warning they threaten Syria’s post-Assad recovery. Despite calls for peace, Suwayda remains volatile amid looting, civilian deaths, and deepening Druze opposition to both Damascus and Tel Aviv.

3️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇳🇨 France agrees to new political status for New Caledonia: France has unveiled a “historic” agreement with New Caledonia, declaring the territory a “State of New Caledonia within the Republic” while retaining it under French sovereignty. The accord, reached after ten days of negotiations near Paris, aims to end years of political deadlock and separatist unrest. President Emmanuel Macron praised the move as a “bet on trust,” offering greater autonomy while affirming ties to France. The agreement proposes a New Caledonian nationality, restricted voting rights for newcomers, and constitutional recognition of its statehood—pending approval by French parliament and a 2026 local referendum. The deal also outlines economic recovery measures, particularly for the nickel sector, after 2024 riots devastated the economy. Indigenous Kanak leaders, long demanding independence, remain cautious amid promises of enhanced self-governance and political reform.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 China offers mediation in Thailand–Cambodia border dispute: China has expressed readiness to mediate between Thailand and Cambodia amid rising border tensions. The offer came from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during a meeting with his Thai counterpart, Maris Sangiampongsa, on the sidelines of the ASEAN foreign ministers’ summit in Kuala Lumpur. Wang stated that China, a longstanding partner to both nations, is prepared to adopt a neutral and constructive role in encouraging peaceful coexistence. He urged both countries to resolve their dispute through dialogue and mutual understanding. Tensions have escalated since a deadly exchange of gunfire along the frontier on May 28, which left a Cambodian soldier dead. In the aftermath, both countries shut their shared border, raising regional concern. Beijing’s involvement signals its growing diplomatic engagement in Southeast Asian affairs amid simmering local conflicts.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 UN warns of largest West Bank displacement since 1967: The United Nations has raised alarm over the largest wave of displacement in the West Bank since Israel occupied the territory in 1967, driven by the military’s months-long “Iron Wall” operation in the north. Since January, over 30,000 Palestinians have been forcibly displaced, with nearly 1,400 homes facing demolition orders. UN officials warn that the mass transfer of civilians could constitute ethnic cleansing and may amount to a crime against humanity. Israeli settler violence has also surged, with 757 attacks recorded this year and a record 96 Palestinians injured in June alone. Since the Gaza war began in October 2023, nearly 1,000 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, amid escalating militarisation and settler aggression.

Major Story

🇹🇼 🇨🇳 RISK OF CONFLICT ACROSS TAIWAN STRAIT DEMANDS CREDIBLE DETERRENCE, FLEXIBLE REASSURANCE, AND CRISIS SAFEGUARDS

A full-scale war between China and Taiwan would carry staggering consequences for East Asia and the global order. Should the United States intervene, a direct clash would ensue between the world’s two largest economies and most capable militaries. Given the proliferation of advanced conventional and nuclear weapons, casualties would likely exceed those of any conflict since 1945. Beyond the battlefield, cyberattacks and strikes on infrastructure could paralyse communications, trade, and energy systems, with global economic shockwaves dwarfing previous crises like the 2008 financial collapse or the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the high stakes, leaders in Beijing, Taipei, and Washington continue to prepare for worst-case scenarios. China emphasises peaceful reunification but refuses to renounce force. Taiwan, with 188,000 troops and growing defence investment, must deter aggression and prepare for defence. The United States, guided by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, balances strategic ambiguity with growing military support, while grappling with resource constraints, global obligations, and domestic uncertainty about long-term commitments in the Indo-Pacific.

The deterrence–reassurance dilemma

Against this backdrop, deterrence aims to prevent conflict by raising the cost of aggression, while reassurance builds trust to avoid miscalculation. Yet as Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry writes, these goals can clash. If China perceives fading U.S. resolve, deterrence erodes. If U.S. deterrence lacks credibility, reassurance becomes meaningless. Current trends—China’s growing capabilities, Taiwan’s doubts about U.S. support, and America’s overstretched military-industrial base—challenge both concepts. Strategic ambiguity, once effective, now risks ambiguity of intention. Reducing risks requires robust crisis communication and accident-avoidance protocols. Existing agreements like the 1998 MMCA and 2014 air-maritime conduct rules are insufficient amid rising military activity near Taiwan. The U.S. and China must urgently institutionalise crisis response mechanisms, validate communication channels, and agree on principles such as timeliness, clarity, and redundancy. Without these, an accident could spiral into open war.

Towards military reassurance

Finally, while direct PLA–Taiwan military dialogue may remain politically infeasible, especially under current conditions, future shifts—including waning U.S. presence—might open the door. Dialogue, even indirect or unofficial, could serve as a valuable hedge against crisis. In an increasingly dangerous strategic environment, deterrence and reassurance must not be treated as opposites, but as twin tools for survival.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇺🇸 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Australia rejects advance U.S. commitment on Taiwan conflict amid Aukus tensions: Australia has firmly rejected any advance commitment to join a potential US-led conflict with China over Taiwan, with Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy stressing that such decisions lie solely with the government of the day. Reports suggest Washington is pressuring Aukus partners, including Australia and Japan, for clarity on their roles in the event of war. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese echoed the stance, highlighting Australia's commitment to peace and the status quo on Taiwan. The response comes amid heightened scrutiny of the Aukus submarine pact and a strategic review led by US official Elbridge Colby. Albanese, currently in China for high-level talks, also rebuffed the idea of “strategic ambiguity” applying only to the US. Canberra emphasised sovereignty in defence matters and dismissed hypothetical military commitments, underscoring Aukus’ economic and deterrence benefits instead.

2️⃣ 🇨🇴 🇿🇦 🇮🇩 Hague Group announces arms embargo and legal action to challenge Israeli impunity in Gaza: A coalition of 12 countries, including South Africa, Colombia, Indonesia and Iraq, agreed on six concrete measures in Bogotá to hold Israel accountable for its conduct in Gaza. These include banning arms transfers, blocking transport of weapons, and reviewing public contracts tied to Israel’s occupation. The measures also call for universal jurisdiction to prosecute war crimes. Though only a fraction of the 30 summit attendees endorsed the plan, organisers set a September 20 deadline for others to join. Critics question the influence of smaller economies, but the initiative reflects a rising Global South demand for legal accountability. UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese hailed the summit as a turning point, declaring: “Palestine has already triggered a revolution, and you are part of it.”

3️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇵🇰 🇮🇷 🇷🇺 IS-Khorasan recalibrates global threat as local influence recedes: Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP), once focused on Afghanistan, is recalibrating its strategy as its influence wanes at home. Weakened by Taliban crackdowns since 2021, the group has intensified external attacks to retain relevance—striking in Iran and Russia with deadly results, while plotting less successful attempts in Europe and the U.S. Unlike the nationally focused Taliban, IS-KP adheres to ISIS’s globalist doctrine, attacking religious minorities and foreign civilians. As ISIS decentralises, IS-KP has become a key node, coordinating with other affiliates and exploiting online spaces. Curbing this transnational threat requires robust intelligence sharing, particularly with Türkiye, Pakistan, and Central Asian states, alongside engagement with the Taliban. The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS must adapt to these evolving dynamics and bolster international capacity to track financing, fighters, and smuggling networks.

4️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇺🇸 U.S. pressure on Hizbollah for phased disarmament risks renewed internal violence: Hizbollah faces its most consequential dilemma since becoming Lebanon’s dominant armed force: disarm and risk losing its key deterrent to Israeli aggression, or risk annihilation. Following Israel’s 2024 assault, which decimated much of its leadership, the U.S. has mounted an unprecedented push for phased disarmament, linking weapons surrender to Israeli withdrawal and economic aid. Special Envoy Thomas Barrack has warned that failure to comply could trigger renewed conflict and diplomatic isolation. Yet analysts note over 3,000 Israeli violations of the December 2024 ceasefire, arguing that any viable disarmament process must include concrete guarantees that Israel will end its military occupation in southern Lebanon and cease breaching Lebanese sovereignty through lethal strikes. Domestically, Lebanon remains divided: President Joseph Aoun supports placing all arms under state control but cautions that doing so hastily could ignite civil war. With Hizbollah's regional leverage weakened by shifting dynamics in Syria, its remaining options—negotiated disarmament, defiance, or partial compromise—carry profound consequences for both the group and the nation. Continued Israeli aggression, however, does little to incentivise Hizbollah's resolve.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇭🇹 UN Security Council extends mandate of UN mission in Haiti: The UN Security Council has unanimously extended the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) until 2026, reaffirming support for a Haitian-led solution to escalating violence and political paralysis. Over 1.3 million Haitians are displaced and 4,000 have been killed this year as gangs tighten control of Port-au-Prince. The resolution comes amid rising food insecurity and widespread gender-based violence. The Council also pledged to consider Secretary-General Guterres’ proposals on future UN roles and urged support for the Multinational Security Support mission. Haiti’s ambassador welcomed the extension, stressing its importance for dialogue, reform, and elections. New BINUH head Carlos G. Ruiz Massieu, a seasoned peace negotiator, was also confirmed, as the country approaches a critical 2026 transition deadline.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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