📰 China hits back

and Trump vs ICC

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 09, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, conflicts in eastern DR Congo and Sudan have intensified, while the security situation in Kurdish-dominated northeastern Syria remains on a knife’s edge as U.S. troops prepare to withdraw and Turkish-backed militias mobilize to advance.

Meanwhile, global trade tensions have risen following Trump’s latest tariff rollout, triggering a sharp decline in global stock markets.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇸🇦 🇵🇸 White House receives Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia opposes Trump’s ethnic cleansing proposition: Saudi Arabia rejected former US President Donald Trump’s assertion that Washington could “take over” Gaza, reaffirming that normalisation with Israel hinges on Palestinian statehood. The Saudi Foreign Ministry reiterated that the kingdom remains committed to establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital and will not engage in diplomatic relations with Israel until that condition is met. Meanwhile, Jordan’s King Abdullah II condemned Israeli settlement expansion and any attempts to displace Palestinians, while Qatar cautioned against premature discussions on Gaza’s post-war governance.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 M23 begins new offensive, pushing towards Bukavu: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have launched a new offensive in eastern DRC, just days before Presidents Félix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame are set to attend a crisis summit. The UN reports that the battle for Goma, seized last week by M23 and Rwandan forces, has left at least 2,900 dead. Despite a self-declared ceasefire, M23 fighters have captured a key mining town in South Kivu, pushing towards Bukavu, sparking intense clashes near Nyabibwe. The escalating violence has prompted regional bodies, mediators, and international organisations to push for a diplomatic resolution, but DRC’s foreign minister has criticised the global response as mere rhetoric.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 China imposes retaliatory tariffs on U.S: China swiftly responded to new U.S. tariffs by imposing its own levies on American imports and launching an antitrust probe into Google. While President Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico were temporarily paused, those on Chinese goods took immediate effect, prompting Beijing to announce tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. energy and automotive products. The Chinese government condemned Washington’s actions as a violation of WTO rules, formally requesting consultations to resolve the dispute. However, the WTO’s weakened dispute-resolution system offers little hope for swift resolution. Analysts note that China is better positioned than in previous trade wars, diversifying its countermeasures beyond tariffs. Yet, the overall impact on U.S. exports may be minimal, as China accounts for only a small fraction of America’s liquefied natural gas trade.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 RSF shelling kills over 50 in Omdurman, airstrikes hit Khartoum proper: Artillery shelling and air strikes killed at least 56 people in greater Khartoum, marking the latest violence in Sudan's ongoing war. The conflict between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023, continues to devastate the capital. In Omdurman, shelling by the RSF targeted a busy market, killing 54 people and injuring 158, overwhelming local hospitals. While the RSF denied responsibility, the attack caused "utter carnage" at Al-Nao Hospital. Meanwhile, in Khartoum, an airstrike on an RSF-controlled area killed two civilians. The war has displaced millions, left Sudan’s infrastructure in ruins, and caused widespread famine, with over 106,000 people in Khartoum facing severe hunger.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Trump places economic sanctions on ICC: President Donald Trump has issued an executive order imposing economic and travel sanctions on individuals involved in ICC investigations targeting U.S. citizens or allies like Israel. Meanwhile, Egypt has condemned Trump’s proposal to relocate millions of Palestinians from Gaza, warning it could reignite conflict, while Jordan fears it will destabilise the region and threaten its peace treaty with Israel. Trump has also stated that once Gaza’s population is resettled elsewhere, Israel will transfer control of the territory to the U.S., eliminating the need for American troops on the ground. In response, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has directed the military to draft a plan for the "voluntary departure" of Gaza’s residents.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 IRAN IN 2025: MAXIMUM PRESSURE, NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY, AND A DECAYING REGIONAL PRESENCE

Over the past six months, Iran has faced mounting challenges across the region. Israeli strikes have significantly weakened allies in Lebanon while also targeting Iran’s own defence infrastructure. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has stripped Tehran of a key ally and arms conduit. Domestically, widespread discontent threatens renewed protests. Despite these setbacks, Iran retains significant assets: an advanced missile arsenal, powerful non-state allies in Yemen and Iraq, and a nuclear program progressing beyond previous limits. Strengthened ties with Russia and China provide some strategic depth, yet Iran is more vulnerable than it has been in decades.

U.S. Strategy and Uncertain Policy Direction

The key question is how the U.S. will respond. While some within President Trump’s orbit view Iran’s current weakness as an opportunity to cripple its nuclear ambitions or even destabilise the regime, Trump himself appears reluctant to engage in another Middle Eastern conflict. A return to "maximum pressure" through intensified sanctions and military action against Iran’s regional allies is likely. Meanwhile, Iran signals a cautious openness to negotiations, creating an opportunity for Western powers to explore diplomacy beyond the nuclear issue, including arms transfers and regional security.

Europe’s Role in Mitigating Escalation

European-Iranian relations have deteriorated, largely due to Tehran’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, European diplomats maintain contact with their Iranian counterparts, recognising the risks of further Middle Eastern instability and the collapse of nuclear diplomacy. European leaders could leverage their influence to facilitate U.S.-Iran talks while preparing for potential snapback sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution 2231 if Iran does not acquiesce. They should also engage with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to support regional de-escalation efforts.

The Diplomatic Clock is Ticking

With Iran’s nuclear program advancing, the window for diplomatic resolution is narrowing. If Iran refuses meaningful negotiations, European leaders should pressure the U.S. to ensure sanctions and military strategies serve defined, realistic objectives rather than escalation for its own sake. Engaging GCC states to consolidate Iran’s improving ties with regional players could further stabilise the region. Ultimately, Europe must use what leverage it has to privilege diplomacy—otherwise it risks further conflict.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇿🇦 Rubio refuses to attend G20 meeting in Johannesburg: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has accused South Africa of “anti-Americanism” and declined to attend an upcoming G20 meeting in Johannesburg, escalating diplomatic tensions under President Trump’s administration. In a post on X, Rubio reiterated Trump’s unfounded claim that South Africa was expropriating private property and criticised the G20’s focus on “solidarity, equality, & sustainability.” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa indirectly rebuked Trump and Rubio in his State of the Nation address, denouncing nationalism and protectionism while affirming that South Africa would not be “bullied.” The dispute follows Trump’s claim that South Africa was “confiscating land” and his decision to halt U.S. funding pending an investigation, despite South African officials insisting that land reform efforts remain lawful and aimed at addressing historical inequities.

2️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 Erdogan, al-Sharaa hold talks on Kurdish northeast: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Syria’s interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Ankara to discuss strengthening security ties, particularly regarding the presence of Kuridsh armed groups in northeastern Syria. This marked al-Sharaa’s second international visit since assuming office, following his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. Erdogan expressed support for Syria’s new leadership and reiterated Turkiye’s commitment to combating ISIL and Kurdish groups, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG). With Turkiye seeking greater influence in northern Syria, Erdogan also emphasized readiness to take over the administration of ISIL detention camps currently controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a key U.S. ally in the anti-ISIL coalition.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇹🇼 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 Global stock markets plummet after the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs: Asian markets tumbled following Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs, with Taiwan’s Taiex dropping 4.4%, led by a sharp decline in TSMC, while Japan’s Topix and Korea’s Kospi fell over 2%. Australia’s ASX 200 lost more than 2%, retreating from record highs, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.9%. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico—excluding Canadian energy, which faces a 10% tariff—alongside a 10% levy on China, citing concerns over immigration and illicit drugs. Canada and Mexico have vowed retaliatory tariffs, while China plans to challenge the move at the WTO, warning it violates global trade rules. Analysts fear this escalation could trigger a global trade war, weaken corporate earnings, and drive inflation higher, with ING strategists warning that “escalating tensions benefit no one.”