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- 🇨🇳 China asserts a firm stance on Taiwan
🇨🇳 China asserts a firm stance on Taiwan
and North Korea sends trash South...
Hi there,
This week saw South Africa’s ANC lose its majority in the country’s national assembly, as well as bumpy progress towards a short-term ceasefire in Gaza. Meanwhile, North Korea dumped trash on the South, and China declared it was willing to “forcefully” stop any attempt at Taiwanese independence.
Read all about it here ⤵️
Top 5 Stories
1️⃣🇺🇸 USA: The US is optimistic that Israel will accept a proposed ceasefire in Gaza if Hamas agrees. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated that the plan includes a six-week cessation of hostilities, a surge in humanitarian aid, and an exchange of hostages. However, Israel's government faces internal opposition, with some officials demanding Hamas be completely neutralized before any ceasefire.
2️⃣🇲🇽 Mexico: This week, Mexicans are set to elect a successor to President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the first general elections in six years. This vote is historic, with leading candidates Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez both being women, and legislative seats assigned based on 2019 gender parity provisions. Though López Obrador cannot run due to term limits, his influence remains significant. He expanded anti-poverty programs but weakened democratic norms and avoided global engagement, while his economic policies and shaky relationship with Washington have concerned many.
3️⃣🇺🇸 🇨🇳🇹🇼 Taiwan: Defense Minister Dong Jun warned that any pursuit of Taiwan's independence would be "crushed to pieces" and lead to "destruction," accusing external forces of putting the island in a "dangerous situation." Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Asia's largest defense summit, Dong reiterated Beijing's commitment to "peaceful unification" with Taiwan but stated that China is prepared for "all kinds of extreme situations," making any independence efforts futile. Beijing considers Taiwan, a democratically governed entity, a province of China and has labeled the island’s newly elected president, Lai Ching-te, a "dangerous separatist."
4️⃣🇺🇦 Ukraine: Ukraine has reportedly fired US-made HIMARS artillery at targets inside Russia for the first time, according to Russian sources. This action follows the US granting limited permission for Ukraine to use such weapons close to the border with the Kharkiv region, aimed at countering massed Russian forces. Russia's Ministry of Defence claims its air defense intercepted over 10 missiles, while Ukraine has not officially commented on the incident.
5️⃣🇺🇳 United Nations Security Council elections: This week, five seats are up for election in 2024, distributed among the regions as follows: one for the African Group (currently held by Mozambique), one for the Asia-Pacific Group (currently held by Japan), one for the Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC, currently held by Ecuador), and two for the Western European and Others Group (WEOG, currently held by Malta and Switzerland). The candidates—Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia—have all previously served on the Council, with Pakistan seven times, Panama five times, Denmark four times, Greece twice, and Somalia once. This year, each regional group is holding uncontested elections, known as a "clean slate."
Major Story
Credit: Shi Zhao
🇿🇦 South Africa election: ANC lose majority
The latest results from Wednesday's significant South African elections have solidified the African National Congress (ANC) party's loss of its longstanding majority, marking the beginning of unprecedented coalition negotiations. With just 159 seats secured in the 400-member national assembly and a vote share slightly exceeding 40%, the ANC's decline reflects growing dissatisfaction due to widespread issues like unemployment, power outages, crime, and failing infrastructure.
The ANC losing its majority in South Africa's elections heralds domestic political shifts and coalition governance, impacting policy, stability, and social cohesion. Geopolitically, it may alter diplomatic engagements, BRICS membership strategy, and perceptions of political stability and investment attractiveness.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) secured 87 seats, while uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), a new party controversially led by former President Jacob Zuma, garnered 58 seats. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a Marxist-Leninist party under the leadership of the ousted ANC youth leader Julius Malema, secured 39 seats.
In a recent special edition, we highlighted the projected loss of parliamentary majority by the African National Congress (ANC), South Africa's ruling party since the end of apartheid in 1994. Despite this forecast, ANC leaders expressed confidence in securing over 50% of the vote, reminiscent of their 2019 success with 57.5%. Should coalition-forming become necessary, the constitution mandates a two-week window for agreement in the National Assembly post-elections.
The ANC lost the majority in three provinces: Northern Cape, Gauteng, and KwaZulu-Natal. President Ramaphosa urged unity post-results, while MK boycotted, reflecting tensions. The ANC asserted Ramaphosa's presidency as non-negotiable. Zuma's remarks raised fears of violence, echoing past unrest.
Key concerns preceding the elections revolved around persistent issues of inequality, crime, and economic instability. Political analyst William Gumende, speaking to the Guardian, emphasized the pervasive impact of crime on South African society, regardless of race, lamenting its soul-draining effect. Steve Bloomfield pointed to the ANC's potential coalition scenario as a consequence of its own missteps, citing a legacy of corruption under President Jacob Zuma that has weakened state institutions. High unemployment rates, inadequate welfare systems, and subpar public services further compound the challenges facing the country.
There's apprehension among business circles regarding the ANC's possible collaboration with populist rivals like Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which could exacerbate economic strains. Alternatively, some anticipate the ANC seeking stability through alliances with smaller parties like Velenkosini Hlabisa's Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), perceived as less obstructionist to economic reforms.
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Other News
1️⃣🇰🇵 North Korea: North Korea has launched 700 balloons filled with trash, including cigarette butts and scraps of cloth, into South Korea in response to leafleting campaigns by South Korean activists. Kim Yo Jong, sister of leader Kim Jong Un, claimed the action was fulfilling a threat to "scatter mounds of wastepaper and filth." South Korea has vowed to take "unbearable" retaliatory measures, calling the acts absurd provocations designed to cause public anxiety.
2️⃣🇷🇺 Russia: President Vladimir Putin plans to impose the largest tax increases since the 1990s to fund the war in Ukraine. The new tiered tax system aims to raise an additional £26 billion annually, shifting from the current flat-rate tax. Under the proposal, income tax rates will rise for those earning between 2.4-5 million roubles (£21,000-£43,400) and higher, while corporation tax will increase from 20% to 25%. Families with multiple children and war veterans will receive benefits to offset the hikes. Analysts see this move as necessary to support escalating military expenditures, now at 7% of Russia’s GDP.
3️⃣🇱🇧🇮🇱 Lebanon: Conflict has intensified along the South Lebanon-Northern Israel frontier this week, with an Israeli military base struck by Hizbollah, and increased Israeli bombing campaigns in Southern Lebanese villages. US mediator Amos Hochstein has suggested that while peace between Israel and Hizbollah is unlikely, a substantial economic package for Lebanon might pacify the militant group and reduce tensions. The initial phase of this plan would involve facilitating the return of tens of thousands of displaced residents to their homes in South Lebanon and North Israel, which would require bolstering the Lebanese Army through recruitment, training, and equipping forces.
4️⃣🇺🇸 USA: Former President and Republican candidate Trump's guilty verdict could have significant domestic and international political repercussions. Domestically, it may impact his ability to run in the November US presidential election. Broadly, the geopolitical implications could affect America's global standing, its relationships with allies, and its influence on international policies and democratic values. Donald Trump made history on Thursday as the first former US president to be convicted of felony crimes. A New York jury found him guilty on all 34 counts related to a scheme to unlawfully influence the 2016 election by making hush money payments to a pornographic actress who claimed they had a sexual relationship.
What Went Under the Radar?
🇾🇪 New wave of airstrikes in Yemen: UK-US airstrikes in Yemen this week targeted Houthi rebels, killing 16 and injuring 35, marking the highest death toll from retaliatory strikes against their attacks on ships. Officials attribute the strikes to increased Houthi assaults on maritime vessels amid rising tensions over the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones
1️⃣ European Parliament Elections (6-9 June 2024)
The European Parliament elections will involve 400 million eligible voters across 27 EU member states, expected to see increased support for right-wing populist parties amidst issues like the cost-of-living crisis and climate change (OSCE).
2️⃣ Local Elections in Ireland (7 June 2024)
Ireland's local elections will likely see continued momentum for the left-wing nationalist party Sinn Féin, driven by their strong positions on housing and healthcare.
3️⃣ Parliamentary Elections in Bulgaria (9 June 2024)
Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections, coinciding with the European Parliament vote, focusing on corruption, judicial reform, and economic development.
4️⃣ Federal Elections in Belgium (9 June 2024)
Belgium's federal elections will elect 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives, with key issues including economic policy, immigration, and federalism shaping the outcomes.
As per an announcement by Somalia's National Security Adviser, Hussein Sheikh Ali, Ethiopian troops will withdraw from the African Union's ATMIS mission in Somalia, despite constituting a significant part of the armed mission. This comes amid deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Somalia following Ethiopia's agreement with Somaliland to establish a military base, which Somalia opposed, leading to the expulsion of Ethiopia’s ambassador. The funding source for a renewed mission after December remains unclear, posing serious risks to regional stability in the Horn of Africa.
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Quote of the Week:
🗣️ "The great chessboard upon which the struggle for global primacy continues to be played is marked by the inexorable forces of geography, history, and the strategic objectives of nations." — Zbigniew Brzezinski
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