Hello and welcome back.

This week, Indonesia’s economy reels as President Prabowo’s populist pivot collides with global and domestic pressures. The European Court rules Russia responsible for mass war crimes and systemic abuses in Ukraine, while China enforces an export ban on firms linked to Taiwan’s defence sector.

Our lead story turns to Rio, where deep internal rifts and the conspicuous absence of key figures cast a long shadow over the BRICS summit.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iranian Foreign Minister urges Washington to choose diplomacy over war in Financial Times op-ed: In a Financial Times op-ed, Iran’s Foreign Minister recounts how recent direct talks with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff made more progress than years of negotiations under the Biden administration. The two sides explored mutual guarantees on uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and a vast economic partnership. But just before a breakthrough sixth meeting, Israel launched a devastating strike on Iranian territory—targeting civilian and energy infrastructure—which Tehran sees as a deliberate sabotage of diplomacy. The minister criticises the U.S. for succumbing to Israeli pressure and warns that Iran’s patience should not be mistaken for weakness. While still open to negotiations, he questions Washington’s trustworthiness after repeated betrayals. Peace, he insists, depends on mutual respect—not coercion, not third-party interference. The U.S. now faces a critical choice: diplomatic resolution, or deeper entanglement in someone else’s war.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇧🇷 Trump imposes 50% tariff on Brazil over Bolsonaro trial and expands global trade penalties: President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the US, citing the “witch-hunt” trial against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Calling Bolsonaro a friend, Trump condemned Brazil’s judiciary and claimed the trial should “end immediately.” Bolsonaro faces allegations of conspiracy to stage a coup. The move was separate from broader tariffs announced this week, which target exports from seven other countries including the Philippines, Algeria, and Sri Lanka, effective 1 August. Trump also criticised Brazil’s censorship of social media firms, launching a Section 301 investigation into what he called unlawful restrictions. These escalating tariffs come amid growing concern over inflation, despite Trump’s claims of lowering costs. Oxford Economics estimated the new measures would raise the US import tariff rate to 20%. Trump exempted five African nations he hosted at the White House, suggesting a willingness to negotiate exemptions.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli defence Minister Katz proposes 'concentration' of Gaza’s population in camps, as Trump and Netanyahu explore expulsion plans: Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has proposed confining Gaza’s entire population in a closed, militarised camp built on Rafah’s ruins, sparking fierce backlash from human rights advocates. Described by many as a “concentration camp,” the plan would relocate some 600,000 Palestinians to a so-called “humanitarian city” in al-Mawasi, from which they would not be allowed to leave. Despite a potential ceasefire, the camp would remain under Israeli military control, with entry contingent on security “screenings.” Katz claims international agencies would manage the site, but named none. Critics, including Michael Sfard and UK MP Ellie Chowns, labelled the scheme a crime against humanity. Simultaneously, Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump are courting third countries to accept Palestinian “voluntary migrants,” echoing a wider campaign of demographic engineering under the guise of humanitarianism.

4️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 Ankara mediation collapses as Ethiopia insists Somaliland deal is existential: Turkey’s bid to mediate the Somalia-Ethiopia dispute over Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland has collapsed, according to intelligence sources. The Ankara-led process—launched in early 2024—sought to defuse tensions following Addis Ababa’s controversial agreement granting it access to Somaliland’s coast. Somalia condemned the deal as a violation of sovereignty, triggering months of failed talks. Despite a provisional declaration in December pledging mutual respect for territorial integrity, technical talks broke down in February and have not resumed. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reignited tensions in July, reiterating that sea access is “existential.” Meanwhile, Egypt has increased support to Somalia, fuelling geopolitical rivalry. Somaliland insists Mogadishu’s approval is unnecessary, while Somalia warns any unilateral deal risks conflict. With no clear successor to Turkey’s mediation, regional volatility looms over the Red Sea corridor.

5️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 China imposes export ban on companies tied to Taiwan’s military: China has imposed sanctions on eight Taiwanese entities, accusing them of supporting pro-independence efforts through military means, according to state media. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said the companies were aiding “separatist forces” and threatened national sovereignty amid Taiwan’s live-fire military drills. The sanctions include a ban on the export of dual-use items to the targeted firms, which Beijing says is necessary to preserve regional stability and territorial integrity under Chinese law. The companies affected are major defence and aerospace contractors, including Aerospace Industrial Development Corp, GEOSAT Aerospace & Technology, and the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science & Technology. The move follows Taiwan’s latest Han Kuang military exercise—the island’s largest and longest-running live-fire drill—featuring significant use of U.S.-supplied weaponry, further escalating tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

Major Story

🇧🇷 🇷🇺 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 🇿🇦 INTERNAL RIFTS AND ABSENCES DEFINE BRICS’ RIO SUMMIT

The July 2025 BRICS summit in Rio was marked by notable absences. Neither Russia’s Vladimir Putin nor China’s Xi Jinping attended, leaving Brazil’s Lula da Silva and India’s Narendra Modi to dominate proceedings. In contrast to past summits, Rio steered away from anti-West rhetoric, focusing instead on UN reform, green transitions, and South–South cooperation. Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on BRICS states pursuing anti-American policies further dampened confrontational posturing.

Divergent visions for BRICS

Russia's 2024 Kazan summit had positioned BRICS as a geopolitical counterweight to Western power, championing multipolarity, de-dollarisation, and expanded membership. In Rio, however, the limits of this vision became evident. While Moscow sees BRICS as a tool to mobilise the Global South against Western dominance, others — particularly members like India and Brazil — resist turning it into an overtly anti-Western bloc. Iran’s first summit as a full member exposed the group’s lack of solidarity. Despite suffering airstrikes on its nuclear sites, the final declaration condemned the attacks without naming those responsible. Russia offered rhetorical support but no tangible assistance, prioritising strategic flexibility over alliance obligations.

Strategic incoherence deepens

The summit also revealed widening divides within the expanded BRICS+. Disagreements emerged over Security Council reform, the Israel–Palestine question, and responses to the Ukraine war. The bloc's vague declaration touched on most global issues but avoided tough stances, reflecting its transactional nature. Despite claims of equality, the bloc is now stratified into founding members, new entrants, and observers — a hierarchy that undermines its core tenets of sovereign parity and inclusivity.

A platform for divergence, not unity

The Rio summit reaffirmed that BRICS lacks a unified geopolitical identity. Rather than bridging differences, it has amplified them. As major powers like Russia and China use BRICS to pursue strategic ambitions, others remain wary of being drawn into polarising great-power rivalries. Without a shared vision, the grouping risks becoming a stage for competing interests, not a coherent force in global governance.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇺🇳 Al-Shabaab retakes Moqokori as federal forces falter across Hirshabelle: On 7 July, Al-Shabaab captured Moqokori in Somalia’s Hiraan region, marking a significant reversal for the federal government and Hawadle clan militias, which had reclaimed the town in a 2022–23 offensive. Strategically located at key crossroads, Moqokori now offers Al-Shabaab a base for further advances and signals the group’s resilience, even on hostile clan turf. The militants launched a surprise assault with a suicide car bomb, then overran the town, claiming to have killed over 40 defenders. The fall is part of a broader trend: since early 2025, the government has steadily lost ground across Hiraan and Middle Shabelle amid political infighting, weak military coordination, and a distracted AU peacekeeping mission. Donors of the Mission cite frustration with domestic Somali political constraints and infighting. While major cities remain under state control, Al-Shabaab’s rural resurgence underscores the fragility of recent gains.

2️⃣ 🇦🇫 ICC issues arrest warrants for Taliban leaders over gender-based persecution: The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Taliban Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and Chief Justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani, citing their role in systemic persecution of women and girls in Afghanistan. The ICC found reasonable grounds to believe that, under their leadership since 2021, the Taliban imposed gender-specific restrictions violating rights to education, movement, privacy, and expression—constituting crimes against humanity under Article 7(h) of the Rome Statute. Measures include banning girls' education beyond sixth grade, barring women from legal professions, and dismissing female judges. While ICC member states are obligated to arrest the accused if they travel abroad, prospects for enforcement remain slim unless Akhundzada or Haqqani leave Afghanistan, where the Taliban remains in control despite international non-recognition.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 European Court finds Russia committed mass war crimes and systemic rights abuses in Ukraine: The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that Russia committed widespread war crimes and grave human rights violations in Ukraine between 2014 and 2022. In a unanimous decision, the court found Russia responsible for extrajudicial killings, torture, gender-based violence, forced labour, and the abduction of Ukrainian children. Violations included arbitrary detention, suppression of political freedoms, destruction of property, and attacks on journalists and minorities. The downing of flight MH17 with a Russian-supplied missile was also deemed a breach of the Convention. The judgment described Russia’s actions as a flagrant assault on international law and democratic values. Moscow refused to participate in the case and has said it will not comply with the ruling.

4️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Hizbollah won’t disarm until Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon, says Qassem: Speaking at an Ashura gathering in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Hizbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem reiterated that the group will not disarm or soften its stance while Israel continues air strikes and occupies strategic areas in southern Lebanon. Qassem said resistance would persist until Israeli forces withdraw, prisoners are freed, and reconstruction begins. Despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in November 2024, Israel has maintained control over five border points and carried out near-daily strikes, killing 250 people. Qassem condemned regional normalisation efforts and dismissed U.S. demands for Hizbollah to disarm. The speech, delivered amid new Israeli air raids in the South and in the Beqaa valley, comes in advance of a U.S. diplomatic visit to Beirut.

5️⃣ 🇮🇩 Prabowo’s populist pivot strains Indonesia’s economy amid global and domestic pressures: Indonesia failed to secure a reduction in its 32% US tariff rate, deepening economic strains already exacerbated by weak fundamentals and President Prabowo Subianto’s populist policymaking. The Rupiah hit lows not seen since the Asian Financial Crisis after President Trump’s tariff announcement, and Indonesia’s markets remain among the region’s worst performers. Prabowo’s “Danantara” sovereign wealth fund centralises control under the presidency and sidelines technocratic oversight, triggering investor concerns. Costly populist programmes and their rushed implementation, such as relaxed rules allowing military officers into civilian roles, signal a rollback of Reformasi-era norms. With softening consumer sentiment, rising layoffs, and one of the world’s lowest tax-to-GDP ratios, economic pressures are mounting, according to the Lowy Institute. Stimulus efforts remain poorly targeted. Prabowo’s high-risk, centralised approach—combined with external shocks—leaves little room for error as growth ambitions outpace delivery.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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