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🗞️ Biden backs long-range missiles

🗞️ Biden backs long-range missiles

what now?

Ross Crabtree
November 20, 2024

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President Joe Biden’s decision to authorize Ukraine's use of U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles inside Russian territory marks a dramatic turning point in the West's involvement in the war. These powerful missiles, capable of striking targets up to 190 miles (305 km) away, provide Ukraine with a significant strategic advantage in a conflict nearing its third year. However, this extended range introduces heightened risks and complex responsibilities, raising the stakes and increasing the potential for escalation. Let's delve into the situation below in this mid-week special issue:

ATACMS: A Game Changer

The Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) allow Ukraine to disrupt Russian supply chains, target military hubs, and strike deep into enemy-held territory. It’s a significant step up from the shorter-range HIMARS, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is wasting no time putting these weapons to use.

While Ukraine now has the tools to alter the dynamics on the battlefield, the timing of Biden’s move raises eyebrows. Russia has already responded by updating its nuclear doctrine, effectively lowering the bar for launching a nuclear strike if it feels its territorial integrity is under threat. It’s a bold gamble by the Biden administration that could pay off—or backfire spectacularly.

The Diplomatic Domino Effect

Biden’s decision could force America’s allies to rethink their own policies. European powers like the UK and France have already supplied Ukraine with long-range missiles but hesitated to approve strikes on Russian soil. Now, with the U.S. leading the way, they may follow suit, creating a united front—or risking further escalation with Russia.

Meanwhile, Moscow has accused Washington of orchestrating a new phase of the war. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov labeled the strikes a “Western declaration of war,” vowing an appropriate response. For NATO, it’s a tightrope act: support Ukraine without crossing the red line that could spark direct conflict with Russia.

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Political Turmoil at Home

The timing of Biden’s decision is striking, coming just two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Trump has made no secret of his desire to reduce U.S. involvement in Ukraine. With this policy shift, Biden seems to be setting the tone for the final chapter of his presidency—one that future administrations might struggle to rewrite.

Trump’s potential pivot away from military aid could leave Ukraine vulnerable, especially if European allies are unwilling to fill the gap. For Kyiv, the next few months are critical in leveraging these weapons while U.S. support remains strong.

The Future

What happens next is anyone’s guess. The introduction of ATACMS may force Russia to adapt by moving military assets further inland, stretching supply lines and weakening its offensive capabilities. But with Moscow’s updated nuclear policy, the stakes are higher than ever. A miscalculation on either side could escalate the conflict far beyond its current scope.

Beyond the battlefield, Biden’s decision sends a message to U.S. allies and adversaries alike. It signals that Washington is willing to take bigger risks to support Ukraine, but it also raises questions about how far the U.S. is prepared to go. If Trump reduces military aid, it could fracture the Western coalition, weakening not just Ukraine’s position but also NATO’s credibility in future conflicts.

The war is also taking on increasingly global dimensions. North Korea’s involvement as a Russian ally complicates the strategic landscape, creating the potential for proxy conflicts that stretch far beyond Europe. Meanwhile, nations in the Global South, already wary of Western interventionism, may begin to view this as a broader East-West confrontation, further polarizing international relations.

Ultimately, Biden’s move has raised the stakes for all involved. Whether this decision will hasten the war’s end or deepen its complexity remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the conflict is now entering a more dangerous and unpredictable phase.