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This week has been marked by significant geopolitical events, with serious escalations in conflicts across Sudan, Israel-Gaza, and Israel-Hizbollah.

Amidst the turmoil, there have been notable diplomatic developments. Relations have strengthened between Australia and China, New Zealand and Japan, and Russia and North Korea, among others.

Our major story focuses on Latin America, highlighting Bolivia's severe and underreported political and economic crisis.

In addition, we delve into the politics of the refugee crisis, an issue that is becoming increasingly salient in European political discourse.

Let’s get into it ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇦🇺🇨🇳 Australia and China’s Panda diplomacy: Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged two pandas to an Australian zoo and called for better Beijing-Canberra relations during his visit to Adelaide, the first by a Chinese leader of his rank in seven years. Li’s visit aimed to revitalise trade and diplomatic ties strained under Australia’s previous government, as relations soured over foreign interference laws, Huawei’s 5G exclusion, and COVID-19 probe demands, leading to Beijing’s trade restrictions on Australian exports. The visit signals a diplomatic victory and potential regional de-escalation.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Putin visits Pyongyang: Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years, greeted by Kim Jong Un at the airport before travelling to the Kumsusan State Guest House. Their strengthened relationship follows Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Pyongyang supplying arms to Russia in exchange for military technology. During their meeting, Putin denounced US "hegemonic policies," while North Korea's KCNA praised their strategic alliance. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, after meeting with NATO's Jens Stoltenberg, expressed concerns about North Korea and Iran supplying weapons to Russia.

3️⃣ 🇿🇦 A second term for Ramaphosa, ANC forms coalition: South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was reelected for a second term on Friday after his party, the African National Congress (ANC), formed a last-minute coalition with a former political adversary. Ramaphosa secured 283 votes in the 400-member Parliament, defeating Julius Malema of the Economic Freedom Fighters, who received 44 votes. This victory was made possible with the support of the Democratic Alliance (DA)—the country's second-largest party—and several smaller parties, following the ANC's loss of its majority in a recent election, reducing its seats to 159. The coalition—described as a government of national unity—unites the ANC with the DA, a historically white-led opposition party and longtime critic of the ANC.

4️⃣  🇳🇬 Nigeria receives bumper World Bank loan: The World Bank has approved a $2.25 billion loan for Nigeria to boost revenue and support economic reforms amid a severe cost-of-living crisis. Announced on Thursday, $1.5 billion of the loan will aid millions affected by rising poverty since President Bola Tinubu's administration began a year ago. The remaining $750 million will fund tax reforms and secure oil revenues, which are at risk due to limited production and widespread theft. Tinubu's economic policies, including ending longstanding fuel subsidies and unifying exchange rates, have led to inflation reaching a 28-year high.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 War in Sudan heralds catastrophic famine: Sudan is on the brink of a famine that could surpass any seen since Ethiopia's crisis 40 years ago, US officials have warned. Aid deliveries are being blocked by warring factions, yet arms continue to flow to both sides. While global attention is largely on Gaza, Sudan faces the world's worst humanitarian crisis, edging towards a disaster of historic proportions with minimal media coverage and international concern. The UN's humanitarian appeal for Sudan has garnered just 16% of the required funds. "We need the world to wake up to the catastrophe happening before our very eyes," said Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN.

Major Story

🇧🇴 Political strife in Bolivia paralyses the government amid escalating unrest over economic crisis

Overview

As per a report from the National Post, protesters have converged on Bolivia’s capital, voices strained from chanting and feet sore after a week-long trek along the national highway. These street vendors, part of the country's extensive informal workforce, completed their nearly 100 kilometre march from Bolivia’s mountainous plains, expressing their mounting frustration over the nation’s critically low foreign-exchange reserves with a resounding demand: “We want dollars!”

Financial crisis

Bolivia’s economic woes are exacerbated by a deep division within the ruling party. President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales, once allies, are now at odds over the direction of the splintering Movement for Socialism (MAS) party as the 2025 elections approach.

This political infighting has hampered the government's ability to address the worsening economic crisis. Analysts warn that social unrest could escalate in Bolivia, a country with a history of turbulence and a population of 12 million.

With skyrocketing prices, scarce dollars, and long lines at fuel-depleted gas stations, protests in Bolivia have surged as the economy plummets from one of the fastest-growing in South America two decades ago to one of the most troubled today.

“We can change the country because we are the engine of production,” said Roberto Rios Ibanez, secretary-general of Bolivia’s Confederation of Merchants, as weary protesters paused for lunch in the congested capital. “The government doesn’t listen. That’s why we’re in the streets.”

Paths forward

Bolivians frustrated with both Morales and Arce feel the country is at a critical juncture. Allies of Evo Morales in Bolivia’s Congress have repeatedly blocked President Luis Arce's efforts to secure debt relief. Despite Bolivia's vast lithium reserves, lawmakers refuse to grant Arce permission for foreign companies to extract it. Arce describes this obstruction as an "economic boycott" against his administration.

To calm investor concerns, Finance Minister Marcelo Montenegro denies any crisis. However, long lines at gas stations tell a different story, as do recent protests where truckers have blocked roads and burned tires.

"Arce has dismantled our social organisations while neglecting the economy," said Jorge Cucho, an Indigenous leader and activist. "Prices have surged by 70%. Our wages can't keep up."

The infighting within MAS provides Bolivia’s opposition a rare opportunity for power since Morales’ 2005 electoral victory. Centrist and conservative politicians are entering the fray, yet the opposition remains fragmented, with many of its leaders imprisoned.

"The opposition has more chances now due to the division," said Fernando Mayorga, a sociologist at Cochabamba’s public university. "But so far, there's no evidence they can capitalise on it."

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇺🇸 India and the United States boost trade, defence relationship: During National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan's inaugural visit to New Delhi since Prime Minister Narendra Modi's re-election, discussions revolved around advancing the 2022-launched Initiative on Critical Emerging Technologies. The talks reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing defence and technology ties while addressing longstanding trade barriers. This initiative, pivotal in semiconductor production and artificial intelligence development, was instrumental in forging a partnership enabling U.S.-based General Electric to collaborate with India's Hindustan Aeronautics for local jet engine production.

2️⃣ 🇳🇿 🇯🇵 New Zealand and Japan negotiate intelligence sharing pact amidst tensions in the Indo-Pacific: Japan and New Zealand reached a preliminary agreement on an intelligence-sharing pact on Wednesday, as their leaders voiced concerns over the region's increasingly challenging security environment, including the strengthening ties between Russia and North Korea. In a joint statement, Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida and Christopher Luxon expressed apprehension over rising tensions in the South China Sea, where China's assertiveness in territorial claims has escalated. They welcomed the preliminary information security agreement to facilitate classified information sharing. Additionally, both leaders agreed to expedite discussions on a pact enabling their forces to share logistical support and supplies during joint training and operations.

3️⃣ 🇧🇭 🇵🇸 Bahrain, BRICS bloc weighs in on international law & Palestine: The expanding BRICS alliance is attracting Arab, Muslim, and Global South nations with its stance on international law, Palestine, and ending perpetual wars. In May, Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa requested Russian President Vladimir Putin to help organise a peace conference on Palestine, with Russia as the first non-Arab invitee. Bahrain and the Arab League acknowledge Russia's position, as defined by Putin, which supports an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. At a summit this week, BRICS representatives reiterated their opposition to forcibly displacing Palestinians, expressed serious concern over Israel's disregard for international law, and collectively condemned violations of UN resolutions.

4️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇮🇷 Canada lists Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group: After years of pressure from opposition lawmakers and members of the Iranian diaspora, Canada has designated the IRGC as a terrorist organisation. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc announced the decision on Wednesday, calling it a “significant tool in fighting global terrorism.” This designation will bar thousands of senior Iranian government and IRGC officials from entering Canada. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, quoted by Fars news agency, condemned the decision as "unwise and unconventional." The IRGC holds significant military, political, and economic influence in Iran and is closely aligned with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

5️⃣  🇱🇧 🇮🇱 ‘The resistance is ready,’ says Hizbollah MP: Hizbollah-affiliated Lebanese MP and spokesperson Ibrahim Moussawi shared his views on the conflict between Israel and the Axis of Resistance in Lebanon and Gaza. "If they want to come to Lebanon, they are welcome. We are waiting for them." Regarding the potential for a larger war on the Israeli-Lebanese border, Moussawi stated that neither Hizbollah nor Israel desires an expanded conflict, but the Islamic resistance is prepared if Israel invades. The risk lies in miscalculation, which could spark sudden conflict between Israel and Hizbollah, a far larger and better equipped adversary than Hamas. However, according to the Guardian's defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh, Israeli talk of war with Hizbollah is likely a fresh attempt at deterrence.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇺🇳 🇪🇺 The geopolitics of the refugee crisis: Last week, a boat carrying 260 refugees and migrants capsized in the Red Sea, resulting in 49 deaths and 140 missing, according to the IOM.  Over the past three years, more than 7,600 have perished or gone missing crossing the Mediterranean Sea, with the UN warning of a worsening crisis. The UN reports 117 million forcibly displaced people globally, driven by conflicts in Ukraine and Sudan. The EU is outsourcing immigration control to authoritarian regimes, often overlooking their methods. Moroccan authorities’ actions led to dozens of deaths at the Melilla border.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇮🇩 🇹🇭 🇯🇵 Indonesia, Thailand, pursue OECD membership: Indonesia and Thailand have initiated steps to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). While "developed countries" lack a precise international definition, the term typically refers to states with high levels of income, education, social welfare, political stability, and social maturity. Thailand aims to achieve developed status by 2037 under its national strategy, while Indonesia targets 2045, marking its centennial of independence. Japan, an OECD member and key regional player, may facilitate this process by bridging ASEAN, of which Thailand and Indonesia are members, and the OECD, thereby accelerating the induction process.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "In the absence of orders, go find something and kill it." – Erwin Rommel

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Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: info@horizongeopolitics.com

Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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