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This week, multilateral diplomacy dominated global headlines. The G20 Summit kicked off in Rio de Janeiro, while at the UN, Russia vetoed a Security Council resolution for a Sudan ceasefire, and the U.S. blocked a Gaza ceasefire proposal. 

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Ukraine deploys first round of ATACMS missiles, fears of nuclear war grow: Ukraine has reportedly used US-made ATACMS missiles to strike a military facility in Russia’s Bryansk region, according to the Russian defence ministry. Of six missiles launched, five were intercepted, while debris from the sixth caused a fire at an unspecified site. No casualties were reported. The attack follows President Biden's decision to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russia. While Ukraine confirmed targeting a military site approximately 70 miles inside Russian territory, it did not specify the weapons used. However, sources cited by Reuters confirmed the deployment of ATACMS. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking at the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, labelled the strike a deliberate escalation encouraged by the West. Moscow has often made a series of threats to the West over its support for Ukraine throughout the war, often invoking the spectre of a nuclear response. Analysts suggest such attacks could serve Ukraine's tactical aims but are unlikely to alter the broader trajectory of the conflict.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇷🇺 🇺🇳 Russia vetoes UN Security Council’s Sudan ceasefire deal: Russia has blocked a UN Security Council resolution urging an immediate ceasefire in Sudan, where ongoing conflict has displaced millions and sparked a dire humanitarian crisis. The resolution, proposed by the UK and Sierra Leone, called for a cessation of hostilities and the initiation of peace talks. Russia cast the sole vote against the resolution, citing objections to what it described as external imposition on Sudanese sovereignty. Russian Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy argued that while a ceasefire is essential, it must emerge from negotiations among Sudanese factions, not through a Security Council mandate. He also accused the UK of double standards, referencing Britain’s support for Israel in Gaza, and criticised the resolution as reflective of “neo-colonialism.” The Sudan conflict, ongoing since April 2023, has displaced over 11 million people, including 3.1 million who fled the country.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant, Deif: The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif, charging them with war crimes and crimes against humanity. Netanyahu and Gallant are accused of using starvation as a weapon and targeting medical facilities during Israel’s Gaza operations from October 2023 to May 2024. Deif, reportedly killed in July, was charged for orchestrating Hamas’ October 7 attacks on Israel. The warrants obligate the ICC’s 124 member states to arrest the accused, but enforcement remains uncertain since neither Israel nor the US are ICC members. Experts, including human rights scholar Neve Gordon, affirm strong evidence supports the charges, citing documented attacks on Gaza’s hospitals and humanitarian restrictions. The case highlights the ICC’s challenges in enforcing accountability on global leaders.

4️⃣ 🇭🇹 Armed groups clash in Port-au-Prince: Gangs have launched a violent assault on Pétionville—an upscale area of Port-au-Prince, Haiti—clashing with residents and police. The attack, led by the Viv Ansanm gang and its leader, ex-police officer Jimmy Chérizier—known as Barbecue—was announced in advance via social media. At least 28 suspected gang members were killed, and hundreds of munitions seized, according to police. Witnesses described gruesome scenes, with 20'000 people having already fled the capital in recent days. The attack is part of escalating gang violence in the capital, where gangs now control 85% of the city and have targeted previously peaceful areas. Recent months have seen coordinated attacks on police stations, infrastructure, and prisons, with over 4,000 inmates freed. The violence continues despite the arrival of Kenyan-led UN-backed forces, as calls grow for a more robust international peacekeeping mission. 

5️⃣ 🇵🇰 Pakistan PM approves ‘comprehensive military operation’ against Balochistan separatists: Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has approved an offensive targeting separatist groups in the restive Balochistan province, following a deadly suicide bombing that killed 26 people at a Quetta train station. The attack, carried out by the banned Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) on 9 November, primarily claimed the lives of national security forces. The decision was announced after a meeting of the government’s security committee in Islamabad. Sharif’s office stated that the operation would focus on the BLA and other militant groups accused of targeting civilians and foreign nationals to undermine Pakistan’s economic stability, allegedly at the behest of hostile foreign powers. Militant violence has surged in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with recent deadly attacks blamed on the BLA and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), including coordinated assaults in August that killed over 50 people.

Major Story

🇪🇹 THE WAR IN AMHARA: IS ETHIOPIA ON THE BRINK OF BALKANISATION?

Over the past 20 months, Ethiopia's Amhara region has been engulfed in a brutal conflict between the federal government and the Fano militia, an ethno-nationalist group seeking full control over Amhara's disputed territories. As per a report from the New Humanitarian, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has been accused of committing grave human rights violations, including indiscriminate drone strikes that have killed hundreds of civilians, particularly in rural areas. Despite these attacks, Fano has expanded its influence, even infiltrating urban centres.

Key Players and Structure of Fano

The Fano militia, once a loose network of district militias, is gradually consolidating into a unified force. In July, various factions elected Eskinder Nega—a journalist and opposition leader—as their head, though key groups rejected his appointment. The most prominent factions include the Amhara Fano People's Organisation, led by Nega, and others in Gojjam, Wollo, Shewa, and Gondar. Fano's appeal stems from its broad support among Amhara civilians, who view the militia as their only protectors against perceived existential threats from both the government and rival ethnic groups.

Humanitarian Crisis and Military Escalation

The ongoing violence has led to severe humanitarian consequences. Thousands of women have sought treatment for sexual abuse, and humanitarian workers face growing risks, with several killed or abducted. Drone strikes by Turkish and Chinese-made drones have contributed significantly to civilian casualties, particularly in towns like Afessa, where the recent attack on a high school killed four children. Human rights organisations have condemned the government for targeting civilians and medical facilities in the conflict.

Fano’s Objectives and Government Response

Fano’s goals are to end what it perceives as the oppression of the Amhara people and to reshape Ethiopia’s federal constitution, which it believes marginalises their community. However, critics suggest Fano’s actions may aim to restore Amhara dominance. Following the 2020 Tigray war—where Fano fought alongside the federal forces, and committed war crimes and crimes against humanity—the group’s military capabilities grew, and its leadership became more unified. Tensions with the government escalated after the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which sidelined Amhara forces, deepening mistrust.

Calls for Constitutional Reform

Both Fano and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed advocate for constitutional change, but with differing visions. Fano calls for a new constitution that transcends ethnic divisions, while critics of Abiy argue his agenda is to centralise power in Addis Ababa. Although Fano has resisted federal control, there are indications that negotiations could take place if the militia gains full control of Amhara. Despite ongoing violence, some leaders—including Asres from Fano—are open to dialogue, but only under conditions that address their demands for regional autonomy and constitutional reform.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇷 Federal police accuse Bolsonaro of 2022 coup d'etat plot: Brazilian federal police have formally accused former President Jair Bolsonaro of conspiring to overturn the 2022 election results in coordination with dozens of ex-ministers and senior aides. The allegations, filed with the Supreme Court on Thursday, conclude a nearly two-year investigation into Bolsonaro's involvement in efforts to delegitimize the election, which led to January 2023 riots in Brasilia shortly after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva assumed office. During the riots, Bolsonaro's supporters sought to incite chaos, hoping to justify a military coup. Police recently arrested five individuals allegedly plotting to assassinate Lula before his inauguration, with investigators uncovering evidence that Bolsonaro was aware of the scheme. Bolsonaro dismissed the accusations on social media, accusing investigators and the judiciary of overreach. His lawyer stated they would await the full report before issuing further comments.

What Went Under the Radar?

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Unprecedented levels of violence against children in the occupied West Bank: In the year following Hamas's attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, 171 Palestinian children were killed in the occupied West Bank by Israeli forces and settlers, averaging nearly one death every other day, according to UN data. Over 1,000 others were injured. The youngest victim was a four-year-old girl fatally shot in January while sitting in a taxi with her mother near a checkpoint. Despite the absence of an official war in the West Bank, child casualties have reached their highest level since Israel occupied the area in 1967. Unicef Palestine expressed alarm over the escalating violence, citing frequent use of live ammunition. The Israeli military—which does not launch criminal investigations unless misconduct is suspected—attributed some incidents to children participating in ‘hostile activities’.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇺🇸 North Korea’s Kim calls for expansion of nuclear forces: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reiterated his call for an “unlimited” expansion of his military nuclear program to counter U.S.-led threats, marking his first direct criticism of Washington since Donald Trump’s election win. Speaking at a conference with army officials, Kim condemned the U.S. for updating its nuclear deterrence strategies with South Korea and strengthening its military cooperation with Japan, which he described as an “Asian NATO,” further escalating regional tensions. He also criticised U.S. support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, accusing Washington and its allies of using Ukraine as a proxy to extend U.S. military influence. Recently, Kim has emphasised North Korea’s growing ties with Russia, aligning with President Vladimir Putin in opposition to Western powers.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "Geography is destiny." – Napoleon Bonaparte

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