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📰 Assad flees Syria

📰 Assad flees Syria

and French crisis deepens

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 08, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly fled Damascus as rebel forces claimed control of the capital after a swift two-week offensive. This seismic shift carries significant geopolitical ramifications, including potential impacts on Israel’s strategic posture in Lebanon and Palestine, Turkiye’s efforts to prevent an autonomous Kurdish state, and the precarious alliances of Russia and Iran with the Syrian regime.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 French government collapses after no-confidence vote: France faces a deep political crisis after Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s minority government fell to a no-confidence vote, marking the shortest tenure of any administration in the Fifth Republic's history. The motion, led by a left-wing alliance and backed by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, garnered a decisive 331 votes. Barnier, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in September, resigned after failing to pass a contentious 2025 budget aimed at reducing France’s deficit with €60 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts. Macron, ruling out his own resignation, now confronts a fractured parliament, budgetary gridlock, and limited options, as new elections cannot be held until mid-2025. The political deadlock highlights France's growing challenges in navigating economic pressures amid escalating political polarization.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Biden earmarks $725m in further security assistance for Ukraine: The Department of Defense has announced a new $725 million security assistance package for Ukraine, part of President Biden's broader effort to bolster Kyiv’s position amid Russia’s ongoing invasion. This marks the 71st transfer of equipment from U.S. stockpiles to Ukraine since August 2021 under the Presidential Drawdown Authority. The latest package includes air defense systems, munitions for rocket and artillery systems, and anti-tank weaponry.

3️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Eastern Congo ceasefire in tatters as fighting resumes between M23 and Congolese military: Clashes between the Congolese army and the M23 rebel group erupted again in eastern Congo, violating a fragile ceasefire ahead of planned mediation talks. The army reported heavy losses inflicted on the rebels in North Kivu’s Lubero territory, while M23 claimed on social media it was also attacked by government forces. The conflict in mineral-rich eastern Congo has displaced over 7 million people and remains one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. Despite a July ceasefire, tensions persist as Presidents Felix Tshisekedi of Congo and Paul Kagame of Rwanda prepare to meet on December 15 for the first time in over a year, amid evidence of Rwandan support for M23, which Rwanda denies but acknowledges having troops in the region.

4️⃣ 🇰🇷 President Yoon survives impeachment, former defence minister arrested: Former South Korean Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun has been arrested for his alleged involvement in President Yoon Suk Yeol's controversial martial law declaration earlier this week, local reports confirmed. Kim, who resigned on Wednesday, is accused of proposing the declaration, a move that triggered a parliamentary impeachment vote against Yoon, which he narrowly survived on Saturday. Opposition parties have since filed complaints accusing Yoon, Kim, and martial law commander Park An-su of treason. Prosecutors questioned Kim early Sunday, with the Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office yet to release a statement.

5️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇳🇪 Niger takes control of French Uranium mine: Orano has announced that Niger's military government has taken over operations at the Somair uranium mine, where the French company holds a 63% stake. The Nigerien government, which owns the remainder, revoked a critical mining permit in mid-2024, leading to export blockades that left 1,150 tons of uranium concentrate stranded, causing losses of over $200 million. Full operations ceased in October due to escalating financial pressures. The ongoing expenses are deepening Orano’s financial woes, reflecting strained ties with Niger following the 2023 military coup and France's refusal to recognize the new regime. Niger, supplying 15-20% of France’s uranium imports and 4% of global output, has historically been vital to Orano. However, the junta’s reassessment of foreign mining operations and proposed resource control reforms signal a challenging shift for international investors.

Major Story

🇸🇾 🇹🇷 🇷🇺 DAMASCUS REPORTEDLY FALLS TO THE REBELS: THE END OF THE ASSAD REGIME?

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly fled Damascus as rebel forces claimed control of the capital following a rapid two-week offensive. Rebel factions announced on state television the end of Assad’s 24-year rule, marking the culmination of a broader uprising against the Assad family’s five-decade grip on power. Assad’s regime, long criticized for brutal repression, leveraged chemical weapons and widespread surveillance to maintain control during the civil war, which has claimed over 300,000 lives since 2011.

Geopolitical Implications and Responses

The crisis has exposed rifts among international stakeholders. Russia, Turkey, and Iran urged renewed dialogue between Assad and the opposition while denouncing the use of terrorist groups for political gains. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned of potential chaos akin to Iraq or Libya if a political vacuum arises. Russia’s vested interests in its military bases in Syria add urgency to its efforts. Meanwhile, Syrian civil society demands an inclusive transition and dismantling of Assad’s intelligence apparatus, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the status quo.

Future Uncertainties

As rebel forces advance, foreign actors scramble to reassess strategies, with diplomats struggling to keep pace with developments. The rapid upheaval underscores the precarious balance of power in Syria, raising questions about the country’s future stability and unity.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇰🇪 South Sudan peace talks resume: After months of delay and the dismissal of a government delegation, South Sudan’s peace talks resumed in Kenya on Wednesday, aiming to address ongoing conflicts that have devastated the country’s economy. The negotiations involve South Sudan’s government and opposition groups excluded from the 2018 peace deal, which ended a five-year civil war claiming over 400,000 lives. South Sudanese President Salva Kiir emphasized that these talks, known as Tumaini (Swahili for hope), aim to integrate holdout groups' concerns without replacing the 2018 agreement. While that deal remains only partially implemented, South Sudan has postponed its first elections since independence from 2024 to 2026.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Human Rights group concludes that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza: Amnesty International has accused Israel of committing genocide during its ongoing war in Gaza, marking the first such allegation by a major human rights organisation amidst an active conflict. A new 32-page report asserts that Israeli actions, including mass killings, deliberate harm, and the destruction of essential infrastructure, were executed with the intent to destroy Gaza’s Palestinian population. The report builds on findings by the UN special rapporteur, who previously identified reasonable grounds for genocide claims. Amnesty highlighted the obstruction of humanitarian aid, systematic attacks on civilians, and the collapse of Gaza’s healthcare, sanitation, and food systems. Secretary-General Agnès Callamard described the findings as a wake-up call, urging immediate international intervention.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 U.S. approves $385m in arms for Taiwan, China vows response: Beijing has pledged to take "resolute countermeasures" after the US approved a US$385 million arms sale to Taiwan. China's foreign ministry condemned the decision, calling it an infringement on its sovereignty and a threat to bilateral relations, urging the US to halt support for Taiwan's separatist forces. The sale includes US$320 million in spare parts and support for Taiwan's F-16 jets, and US$65 million for communications systems. The US, which does not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, continues to provide military support to defend the island against potential Chinese aggression, with deliveries expected to begin next year.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇹🇭 🇲🇲 Thai fisherman shot at, detained, by Myanmar navy: Myanmar’s navy opened fire on Thai fishing vessels, resulting in the death of one fisherman and the detention of 31 crew members, according to Thailand’s Defence Ministry. The incident occurred when two out of 15 Thai boats ventured 4-5.7 nautical miles into Myanmar’s waters, prompting Myanmar’s forces to act. Three fishermen leapt into the sea during the clash; one drowned, while the other two were rescued by the Thai navy. Thai authorities are negotiating the release of the detained crew, while Myanmar’s junta has yet to comment on the incident, which comes amid ongoing turmoil following the military’s 2021 seizure of power.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇬🇧 🇮🇷 European leaders and Iran commit to maintaining dialogue: Following secretive talks in Geneva, representatives from Germany, France, Britain, and Iran stated the discussions focused on Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions, and regional issues. The parties agreed to continue diplomatic dialogue soon, with Iran's deputy foreign minister describing the talks as "candid." Meanwhile, Britain's foreign intelligence chief warned that Iran's nuclear ambitions still pose a ‘major global security risk,’ despite setbacks suffered by its regional allies, Hamas and Hizbollah.

2️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 Ethiopia–Somalia dispute to be mediated by Uganda, Kenya: Kenyan President William Ruto announced that he and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni will mediate a growing dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia, which poses risks to regional stability. The rift stems from Ethiopia’s proposal to develop a port in Somaliland, a self-governing territory seeking international recognition, in exchange for supporting its sovereignty—an offer that has angered Mogadishu. Somalia’s alignment with Ethiopia’s rivals, Egypt and Eritrea, has further escalated tensions, complicating efforts for reconciliation. Ruto emphasised the importance of Somalia’s security for regional stability and economic growth, as previous talks in Ankara failed to yield results.