Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 ASEAN confronts China

📰 ASEAN confronts China

and North Korean arms in Russia

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 13, 2024

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This week, East Asia sees rising tensions as ASEAN summit leaders condemn Beijing's provocative actions in the South China Sea, while Cambodia's emergence as a hub for transnational crime threatens regional stability.

In Africa, the head of the RSF militia accuses Egypt of meddling in Sudan's affairs, Tunisia's president secures a second term amid a crackdown on political opposition, and Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia sign a trilateral agreement in Asmara, heightening tensions with Ethiopia.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, fears of a regional conflict escalate as Israel's military operations continue in Gaza and Lebanon, and Gulf states urge the U.S. to prevent an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 🇶🇦 Gulf states urge Washington to stop Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities: Gulf states are pressuring Washington to prevent Israel from targeting Iran’s oil facilities, fearing their own oil infrastructure could be attacked by Tehran’s allies if the conflict escalates, according to three sources familiar with the situation. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have also refused to allow Israeli military aircraft to use their airspace for any strike on Iran and have conveyed this stance to U.S. officials. Following a recent missile strike by Iran, which Israel has vowed to retaliate for, Tehran warned of "vast destruction" in response, raising fears of a broader regional conflict potentially involving the U.S. Iran has urged its Gulf neighbours to leverage their influence with Washington, emphasising during recent meetings that Gulf oil facilities could be at risk if they support Israel in any way. This issue was central to discussions between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi during the latter’s Gulf tour.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 UNIFIL peacekeepers wounded after Israeli attack in South Lebanon: The United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has accused Israel of deliberately targeting its positions, injuring two peacekeepers, amid Israel's ongoing conflict with Hizbollah. The incidents occurred during Israeli ground incursions near the Lebanese border, including strikes on an observation post in Naqoura and a base in Labbouneh, which damaged vehicles and communications. UNIFIL called these acts serious violations of international law, noting Israeli drones were seen overhead before the strikes, suggesting premeditation. The events have drawn condemnation from UNIFIL troop-contributing nations, while Israel continues to face scrutiny over alleged war crimes, including targeting medical facilities in Gaza. Additionally, Israeli airstrikes have caused civilian casualties, such as the recent bombing of a school in Deir al-Balah, killing 27. The International Court of Justice is currently considering genocide charges against Israel.

3️⃣ 🇪🇷 🇪🇬 🇸🇴 Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia sign trilateral pact in Asmara amidst Ethiopia tensions: The leaders of Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea—nations with tense relations with Ethiopia—recently met in Asmara, Eritrea. A statement from Eritrea emphasised respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, likely hinting at Ethiopia’s ambitions for a seaport, though Ethiopia wasn't mentioned directly. Rising diplomatic tensions have drawn Somalia closer to Egypt and Eritrea, both of which have long standing disputes with Ethiopia. Some analysts, like Hassan Khannenje, see this meeting as an attempt to increase pressure on Addis Ababa. However, Somalia’s Information Minister, Daud Aweis, denied any anti-Ethiopia intentions, stating the meeting was focused on cooperation. A photograph from the summit shows Egyptian President Sisi with his Eritrean and Somali counterparts, underscoring their commitment to strengthening Somalia’s state institutions and military. Ethiopia has supported Somalia’s fight against al-Shabab but angered Mogadishu by signing a coastal deal with Somaliland, which Somalia claims as its own.

4️⃣ 🇱🇦 🇨🇳 ASEAN summit attendees chastise Beijing’s South China Sea aggravations: During the annual ASEAN summit on Thursday, Southeast Asian leaders increased pressure on China to adhere to international law following recent confrontations in the South China Sea. However, Chinese Premier Li Qiang remained defiant, blaming "external forces" for stoking regional tensions. The clashes, involving China and ASEAN members such as the Philippines and Vietnam, have intensified concerns over Beijing's aggressive stance in the disputed waters. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, set to chair ASEAN next year, called for swift progress on the long-discussed code of conduct for the South China Sea. Despite ongoing negotiations, differences over making the agreement binding have stalled its conclusion. Li, without naming specific nations, attributed regional conflicts to foreign interference, an apparent reference to the U.S. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to address China's maritime assertiveness at the summit. The South China Sea dispute involves overlapping claims from ASEAN nations and China, which asserts control over nearly the entire area.

5️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇰🇵 North Korean arms cache hit by Ukrainian drone strike in Russia: The Ukrainian military reported striking a weapons depot in western Russia—situated in the Bryansk border region—which stored missiles and munitions, including those supplied by North Korea. According to Ukraine's General Staff, the drone attack was intended to disrupt Russian logistics and weaken its offensive capabilities. The arsenal contained ammunition for missile and artillery systems, including glide bombs, with much of it stored outdoors. Following the attack, Bryansk authorities declared a state of emergency due to detonations, though they did not confirm the depot strike. The incident comes after South Korea claimed that North Korean soldiers are fighting alongside Russian troops in Ukraine. South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun suggested that six North Korean officers were likely killed in a recent Ukrainian strike near Donetsk. Both North Korea and Russia deny allegations of a weapons supply agreement.

Major Story

🇱🇧 🇮🇱 HIZBOLLAH VOWS CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR GAZA, AS FOURTH ISRAELI DIVISION ENTERS LEBANON

Background

Israel has escalated its military operations in southern Lebanon by deploying a fourth division, following a series of intense airstrikes across the region. The recent deployment of the reservist 146th division, in addition to another standing division, raises the number of Israeli troops in the area to about 15,000. This action is part of Operation Northern Arrows, which Israel initially described as a series of “limited, localised, and targeted raids” aimed at dismantling HIzbollah’s infrastructure along the disputed blue line border.

The mobilisation of four divisions, along with evacuation orders for Lebanese villages up to 20 miles from the blue line, and heavy bombings in southern and eastern Lebanon, indicates Israel may be preparing for a broader offensive against HIzbollah. Despite the intensified airstrikes, HIzbollah's acting secretary-general, Naim Qassem, delivered a defiant speech asserting that the group’s military capabilities remain intact. He highlighted that Hizbollah continues to launch daily rocket attacks and drone strikes against Israeli settlements, despite suffering significant leadership losses.

Israeli Claims and Hizbollah's Response

Qassem confirmed that Hizbollah has replaced its senior commanders following the deaths of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and others in the recent Beirut airstrikes. He asserted that Israeli ground forces have made no substantial advances after a week of fighting. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had killed Hashem Safieddine, who was expected to succeed Nasrallah. This claim is yet to be verified by Lebanese sources.

In response to ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon and Gaza, Hizbollah's Operations Room issued a resolute statement, vowing to continue its resistance against the Israeli occupation until the war on Gaza ends. The statement emphasised the group’s preparedness and enhanced missile capabilities, warning that any further Israeli aggression would provoke intensified retaliation.

Hizbollah asserted that its military operations are now guided by a strengthened command-and-control system, making the group "stronger and more resilient" than before. The group warned that continued Israeli aggression against Lebanese civilians would result in missile strikes on major cities such as Haifa, as well as border towns like Kiryat Shmona and Metulla. The statement also highlighted the ongoing fierce battles in southern Lebanon, where Hizbollah fighters are effectively resisting Israeli attempts to advance into border villages, demonstrating that their capabilities extend beyond missiles and drones to strike deep into occupied Palestinian territory.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Almost 60% of Gaza destroyed in one year: Over the past year, Israeli airstrikes and ground operations have devastated Gaza, crippling essential infrastructure and severely disrupting Palestinian life. As the conflict extends to southern Lebanon, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza deepens. Since October 7, more than 41,600 Palestinians, including 11,300 children and 6,300 women, have been killed. The UN estimates 90% of Gaza’s population has been displaced at least once. Critical infrastructure is collapsing—60% of buildings and 68% of roads are damaged or destroyed. Only 17 of 36 hospitals remain partly functional, all suffering from shortages of fuel, medical supplies, and clean water. Food insecurity worsens under new customs rules on aid. This escalation follows the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, which killed over 1,200 people. Israel's military response continues, with significant destruction now concentrated in southern Gaza, particularly near Rafah.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 Modi’s BJP loses to Congress in Kashmir’s regional elections: India’s ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), suffered a significant defeat in Kashmir's first election since the Indian government stripped the region of its autonomy in 2019. The opposition Congress party, in alliance with the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), secured a resounding victory, winning 48 seats to the BJP’s 29. This election, the first in a decade for the region, was highly anticipated due to its significance following the Modi government's controversial decision to revoke Article 370, which had granted Kashmir special autonomous status. The move was seen as a core promise of the BJP's Hindu nationalist agenda but faced widespread backlash in Kashmir, where it was perceived as an assault on the region's identity. Kashmir, a longstanding conflict zone between India and Pakistan, remains fraught with tension, with violent insurgencies and political struggles ongoing since the 1990s.

3️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇹🇱 Australia and Timor-Leste close to signing off on $74 billion maritime gas project: The long-delayed Greater Sunrise gas project could commence by the end of the year, according to Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta. However, he stressed that the pipeline and processing facilities must be located in Timor-Leste, not Australia’s Darwin. Discovered in 1974, the gas field lies between Australia and Timor-Leste, with disputes over maritime boundaries only resolved in 2019. Since then, negotiations have stalled over where the gas will be processed. While Woodside Energy, the operator, prefers Darwin for economic reasons, Ramos-Horta argues that routing the pipeline to Timor-Leste would be more cost-effective due to lower taxes. Ramos-Horta urged Australia to finalise an agreement, citing interest from investors, including China. He believes Timor-Leste would reap greater benefits if the pipeline goes to his country, which is closer to the gas field. South Korea and Kuwait have also shown investment interest.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇦🇫 Russia rescinds Taliban’s designation as a terrorist group: Moscow has announced that it has reached a "principal decision" to remove Afghanistan's ruling Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations. Russian presidential envoy Zamir Kabulov confirmed that the foreign ministry and national security agencies are finalising the legal process for delisting the Taliban, with an official announcement expected soon. The news coincided with a Moscow-hosted regional conference on Afghanistan, chaired by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. During the event, Lavrov emphasised the need for pragmatic dialogue with the Taliban and pledged continued political, trade, and economic ties with Kabul. Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi welcomed Russia's move, along with recent announcements by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to delist the group, expressing hope for further steps toward international recognition.

5️⃣ 🇹🇳 Tunisia’s President wins landslide second term after suppression of political opposition: Tunisian President Kais Saied secured a second term, winning 90.7% of the vote in Sunday’s election. However, only 27.7% of eligible voters participated, reflecting widespread public discontent despite an improvement from the previous local election’s 11% turnout. Saied’s two main challengers, Ayachi Zammel and Zouhair Maghzaoui, posed little threat, as Zammel was jailed shortly before the election, and over a dozen candidates were disqualified, limiting competition. Since his initial victory in 2019, Saied has faced criticism for consolidating power, including suspending parliament and expanding executive authority through a referendum. His actions have fueled concerns of authoritarianism and led to the detention of opposition figures. Although Saied framed his win as a fight against corruption, the low turnout signals widespread dissatisfaction, suggesting his leadership faces significant challenges amid growing political and social tensions.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇸🇩 🇪🇬 RSF militia’s leader, Hemedti, accuses Egypt of interference in Sudan: RSF leader Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo has accused Egypt of direct military involvement in Sudan, claiming that Egyptian airstrikes have inflicted heavy losses on RSF forces. He alleges that Egypt has been lobbying the U.S., EU, and regional allies to isolate the RSF and support its ally, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), as the sole power in Sudan. Hemedti noted that Egypt has used U.S.-made fighter jets, along with MiG-29M2 aircraft, to strike RSF positions, highlighting that these attacks are not new but were previously overlooked to avoid public disputes with Egypt. He also accused Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran of sending recruits, mercenaries, and weapons to the SAF, and criticised Western backing of Egypt’s strategy in Sudan. He suggested that Egyptian militarism has resurfaced as a prominent force in the region.

🇰🇭 🇱🇦 🇲🇲 Southeast Asia's geopolitical stability at risk as Cambodia becomes a hub for transnational crime: Cambodia's weak institutions and massive external financial flows have made it a hotspot for transnational crime, with a sharp rise in illegal activities since 2021. Human trafficking, narcotics smuggling, and fraud are increasingly rampant, threatening regional stability and global security, extending to North America, Europe, and Oceania. Chinese-backed criminal networks exploit corruption in Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia, using abandoned casinos, hotels, and Special Economic Zones, particularly in cities like Sihanoukville, Poipet, and Bavet, as hubs for drug trafficking and cyber scams. After Cambodia joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, a surge in Chinese investment fueled gambling-driven development. However, a 2019 ban on online gambling and the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns crippled tourism and casino revenue, prompting these enterprises to collaborate with organised crime groups, escalating human trafficking and other illicit activities.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇱🇧 U.S. seeks to install new Lebanese president: U.S. officials report that the White House aims to capitalise on Israel's recent strikes against Hizbollah's leadership to push for the election of a new Lebanese president. Lebanon has been without a president for nearly two years, worsening political instability and the ongoing economic crisis. Israeli strikes killed Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other senior cadres, including two Radwan Force commanders. One potential candidate, Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun, has the backing of the U.S. and France. U.S. officials see a rare chance to elect a president not aligned with the group, aiming to reduce its influence over Lebanon's political system. According to Axios, Washington’s priority is electing a president before seeking a ceasefire and diplomatic solution.