Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 AI risks missteps

📰 AI risks missteps

and 35M displaced in Africa

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 01, 2024

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Russia remains at the heart of this week’s geopolitical developments. President Vladimir Putin extended praise to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump while simultaneously issuing threats against Kyiv, warning of potential intermediate-range missile strikes.

Elsewhere, Moscow has bolstered its military air support for the Syrian government as Turkish-backed insurgents capture key areas in Aleppo and advance toward Idlib and Hama.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 Insurgents take Aleppo as Syria becomes epicentre of regional geopolitical competition: Fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have staged a surprise offensive, seizing significant territory and dismantling symbols of President Bashar al-Assad’s authority. This swift rout of Syrian army forces marks the most serious challenge to Assad’s grip in years. Amidst the chaos, Turkish-backed Syrian rebels launched their own operation, targeting Kurdish militants and government forces while aiming to capture a military airport east of Aleppo. Meanwhile, Russian airstrikes have supported Assad’s troops in their efforts to counter the insurgents. Diplomatic activity is intensifying, with Iranian and Russian officials engaging in discussions amid speculation about Israeli involvement in attacks aimed at disrupting Iranian supply routes to Lebanon.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Lebanon ceasefire successfully brokered: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed a ceasefire agreement with Hizbollah in Lebanon, warning that any violations or attempts by the group to rearm will prompt retaliatory strikes. The announcement comes amid intensified hostilities, with Israeli airstrikes hitting Beirut, killing at least 31 people in 24 hours, and Hizbollah resuming rocket fire into Israel. Moments after U.S. President Joe Biden acknowledged the ceasefire deal, Israeli airstrikes targeted Beirut’s Khandaq al Ghamiq neighbourhood. Lebanon’s MTV News reported the strikes destroyed an apartment in the area. Iranian analyst Tohid Asadi noted that Tehran is monitoring the ceasefire closely, emphasizing its priority to prevent further escalation. Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani has expressed support for Lebanon’s decision on the truce. Meanwhile, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the deal, citing its potential to bolster Lebanon’s security. However, fresh Israeli evacuation warnings for Beirut’s southern suburbs—issued hours before the ceasefire's activation—have raised concerns over continued violence.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Putin praises Trump, threatens Kyiv with intermediate-range missile attack: Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned of potential strikes on Kyiv using Oreshnik missiles, a weapon Moscow recently deployed against Dnipro and claimed to be impervious to air defence systems. Speaking in Kazakhstan, Putin suggested targeting military or decision-making facilities in Kyiv, emphasizing the missile’s destructive power, which he likened to a meteorite impact. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the threats as a “despicable escalation,” while adviser Mykhailo Podolyak dismissed Putin’s claims about the missile’s invincibility as “fiction.” Moscow justified the threats as retaliation for Western nations allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian military targets.

4️⃣ 🇵🇰 Pakistan ends Islamabad lockdown as protests disperse: Supporters of Imran Khan, Pakistan’s most popular political figure, vacated central Islamabad, leaving behind debris and wreckage from clashes the previous night. Security forces had launched a nighttime crackdown to disperse demonstrators backing the former prime minister, imprisoned since August 2023 and facing numerous charges for challenging military authority. PTI lawmaker Faisal Amin Khan Gandapur accused authorities of firing live bullets at unarmed protesters, resulting in injuries and deaths, though exact figures remain unclear. Despite government bans, thousands marched from PTI strongholds, overcoming roadblocks to reach the capital by Tuesday morning.

5️⃣ 🇧🇪 🇷🇺 NATO ambassadors discuss Russian use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles: NATO representatives have convened in the NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) to address Ukraine's security following Russia's recent test of an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). Senior Ukrainian military officials joined the meeting via video link to provide updates. NATO Allies reaffirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine, condemning the missile attack on Dnipro as a deliberate act of terror against civilians and an attempt to intimidate nations aiding Ukraine in its defence against Russia’s unlawful aggression. NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah emphasized, “This deployment will neither alter the conflict’s trajectory nor weaken NATO’s commitment to Ukraine.” Chaired by NATO’s acting Deputy Secretary General Boris Ruge, the session underscored the Council’s role in addressing shared security concerns. The next meeting will coincide with NATO Foreign Ministers’ discussions on 3-4 December.

Major Story

THE RISKS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: THE ILLUSION OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROWESS IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

AI is poised to transform human society, particularly in the realm of international security. A critical concern is the potential for AI to heighten the risk of war by fostering illusions of rapid and decisive victory. Historically, overconfidence in technological advantages has often led aggressors to initiate conflicts under false assumptions of easy success.

Brookings Institute’s Michael E. O’Hanlon cites World War I: Germany’s reliance on its advanced railroads and industrial capabilities inspired the Schlieffen Plan, designed for a swift victory against France and Russia. This overconfidence proved disastrous, culminating in a protracted conflict and over 10 million fatalities. Similarly, during World War II, Adolf Hitler underestimated the Soviet Union’s resilience after early success with blitzkrieg tactics, leading to severe miscalculations.

Other conflicts, including the Vietnam War, the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, reveal a recurring pattern: technological superiority does not guarantee quick or easy victories. Misjudgments about the efficacy of airpower, precision strikes, and asymmetric strategies have repeatedly turned planned "short wars" into protracted struggles.

O’Hanlon suggests that AI could exacerbate these risks. Its ability to accelerate decision-making and disrupt command-and-control systems might tempt nations to strike preemptively, believing they hold a temporary technological edge. However, war remains unpredictable and resistant to overreliance on any single innovation. History demonstrates that initial advantages often dissolve into prolonged and costly conflicts.

Leaders must heed Sun Tzu’s wisdom that the best victory is one achieved without fighting. Overestimating AI's potential to deliver quick triumphs could lead to devastating consequences, making it imperative to approach its military integration with caution and humility.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇴 Semi-autonomous Jubaland suspends ties with parent state Somalia: Jubaland, Somalia's semi-autonomous region bordering Kenya and Ethiopia, announced it would sever ties with the federal government in Mogadishu after disputes over a regional election. Ahmed Madobe was re-elected as Jubaland's president earlier this week, but the federal government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, rejected the election, citing a lack of federal oversight. The tensions escalated as Mogadishu issued an arrest warrant for Madobe, who retaliated with a warrant for Mohamud, amid accusations of treason and constitutional violations. This political feud adds to Somalia's broader challenges, including its strained relationship with Somaliland—which seeks independence—and ongoing security concerns in Jubaland, a vital agricultural hub and a contested maritime zone with potential oil and gas reserves.

2️⃣ 🇲🇲 International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Myanmar junta leader: The ICC has requested an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, accusing him of crimes against humanity. Following an extensive investigation, the court asserted that the junta chief bears responsibility for the deportation and persecution of the Rohingya, acts committed in Myanmar and partly in Bangladesh. A panel of ICC judges will now decide on the warrant, with further applications anticipated. Rohingya activist Tun Khin welcomed this as a “huge step forward,” marking progress toward accountability after the 2017 military campaign that drove over 700,000 Rohingya to Bangladesh amid allegations of genocide. The Rohingya remain in dire circumstances, with nearly a million in precarious refugee camps in Bangladesh and those in Myanmar still facing violence from both the military and other armed groups like the Arakan Army.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇦🇪 🇸🇩 Washington mulls UAE arms embargo over RSF support: Senator Chris Van Hollen has introduced legislation to block U.S. weapons sales to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) unless it is certified that the UAE is not supplying arms to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). A joint resolution of disapproval was filed in the Senate, with Representative Sara Jacobs introducing a parallel resolution in the House. While unlikely to gain substantial congressional backing due to the UAE's status as a key regional ally, the initiative highlights concerns over the devastating humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Van Hollen stated, "The UAE is an important partner, but the U.S. cannot stand by as it contributes to Sudan's catastrophe." U.S. law permits Congress to review and block arms deals, though such resolutions rarely succeed against presidential vetoes. The UAE remains a major buyer of U.S. arms, with recent approvals including a $1.2 billion deal for advanced munitions.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇨🇩 🇸🇩 35 million people displaced by conflict and climate crisis in Africa, says report: Wars and climate disasters have driven a dramatic rise in internal displacement across Africa, with numbers tripling over the past 15 years, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). The continent now has 35 million internally displaced people (IDPs), up from 11.6 million in 2009, when African governments committed to addressing the root causes of displacement. Conflict remains the primary driver, accounting for 32.5 million IDPs, with 80% concentrated in five nations: the DR Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan. Climate disasters, however, are an increasingly significant factor. In 2023 alone, climate-related displacements surged to 6.3 million—six times higher than in 2009—with flooding causing 75% and drought 11%. The report underscores the urgent need for stronger measures to tackle displacement, especially as climate threats continue to escalate.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Mexico plans retaliatory tariffs on U.S: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum signaled potential retaliation against U.S. tariffs, following President-elect Trump's threat to impose 25% duties on Mexican goods unless drug trafficking and illegal migration are curtailed. Sheinbaum emphasized that the drug crisis is primarily a U.S. issue, stating, “One tariff would provoke another, endangering shared industries like cross-border automaker operations.” Acknowledging Mexico's efforts to reduce migrant flows—claiming migrant caravans no longer reach the border—Sheinbaum admitted that actions to combat drugs, including fentanyl produced by Mexican cartels using Chinese chemicals, have faltered recently. She also highlighted the issue of U.S.-sourced weapons smuggled into Mexico, asserting that drug abuse is a public health issue within U.S. society. Critiquing U.S. military spending, Sheinbaum proposed reallocating funds toward regional development to address migration’s root causes, underscoring a stark contrast to Trump’s dealings with former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.