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📰 Africa’s push for UN power

📰 Africa’s push for UN power

and US-China hold rare talks

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
September 15, 2024

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In Africa, Commonwealth nations demand reparations for slavery and colonialism, Algeria re-elects Abdelmadjid Tebboune, and the US supports a proposal for two permanent African seats on the UN Security Council, though without veto power. Despite human rights concerns, Washington also approves $1.3 billion in military aid for Egypt.

Let’s get into it ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇬🇲 🇬🇭 🇱🇸 Commonwealth constituents call for slavery, colonialism reparations: The three candidates vying to become the next Secretary General of the Commonwealth have advocated for reparations for nations impacted by slavery and colonisation. Representing Gambia, Ghana, and Lesotho, the candidates voiced support for either financial reparations or "reparative justice" during a debate hosted by Chatham House in London. Last year, African and Caribbean nations united to demand compensation from former slave-owning states for "historical mass crimes." Ghana’s Foreign Minister Shirley Botchwey stated, "Financial reparations are beneficial," but emphasised that the Commonwealth's role would be determined by the heads of government who will instruct the new Secretary General. The election for the Secretary General will be held during the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa from October 21 to 26.

2️⃣ 🇩🇿 Abdelmadjid Tebboune re-elected: Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, 78, has been re-elected with 94.65% of the vote, as confirmed by the National Independent Authority for Elections. Of the 5.63 million registered voters, 5.32 million supported Tebboune. His main competitors, Abdelaali Hassani Cherif and Youcef Aouchiche, received 3% and 2.1% of the vote, respectively. Tebboune's leadership has been marked by concerns about democratic erosion, with critics comparing his presidency to that of his predecessor, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Repressive measures against opposition figures and activists during the campaign have been widely reported. Geopolitically, Tebboune's re-election is expected to continue Algeria's focus on military and social spending, fueled by rising energy revenues. Relations with Morocco remain tense, particularly over the Western Sahara dispute.

3️⃣ 🇨🇴 🇧🇷 🇲🇽 🇭🇳 Latin America the epicentre of the nearly 200 environmental defenders killed last year, report reveals: At least 196 people were killed in 2023 for defending the environment, with over a third of these deaths occurring in Colombia, according to new data from Global Witness. The report highlights how activists, from those opposing mining projects to Indigenous communities resisting organised crime, faced deadly threats. On average, one environmental defender was killed every two days. Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, and Honduras were the most dangerous countries, accounting for over 70% of global killings. While identifying a direct cause for these deaths is often challenging, Global Witness found mining to be the most deadly sector, responsible for 25 fatalities last year. Many perpetrators remain unpunished. “As the climate crisis worsens, those bravely speaking up to protect our planet face escalating violence and intimidation," said Laura Furones, the report’s lead author. "The persistently high number of killings is unacceptable.” Indigenous communities were disproportionately affected, comprising 43% of those killed. Since Global Witness began tracking these incidents in 2012, a total of 2,106 environmental defenders have been murdered worldwide.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 US endorses proposal for 2 permanent African seats on UN Security Council: The U.S. announced on Thursday its support for adding two permanent seats for African nations to the U.N. Security Council, along with the first-ever non-permanent seat for a small island developing state. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, made the statement during a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, building on President Biden's previous backing for expanding the 15-member council. Though Africa currently holds three non-permanent seats, Thomas-Greenfield emphasised that this doesn’t allow the continent to fully contribute its expertise. She stated, “In addition to non-permanent membership, the U.S. supports the creation of two permanent seats for Africa. This aligns with what our African partners want and what we consider fair.” However, she clarified that the U.S. does not support granting veto power to these new African seats, citing concerns that it could further hinder the Security Council's effectiveness.

5️⃣ 🇲🇽 Mexican senate greenlights judicial reform plan: Mexico’s Senate has passed a judiciary overhaul, paving the way for a constitutional amendment requiring judges to be elected. Critics fear this could politicise the judiciary and weaken democratic values. In a tense session, the ruling Morena party secured a two-thirds majority, with a final vote of 86-41. Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador supports the reform to combat corruption. The changes will elect over 6,500 judges, reduce the Supreme Court to nine judges, and adjust their terms and qualifications. Protests disrupted the Senate, with accusations of coercion. Critics warn this could undermine judicial independence and invite political interference. The overhaul has also alarmed Mexico’s trade partners and caused a 17% drop in the peso since June. Incoming President Claudia Sheinbaum, starting in October, will need to navigate the fallout.

Major Story

🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 THE GEOPOLITICS OF SUDAN’S DESTRUCTIVE WAR

Background

Since April 15, 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a brutal conflict between two rival factions. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by de facto president General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, are clashing with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, whose forces are accused of ethnic cleansing.

The two men had once allied during the 2019 uprising that ousted longtime president Omar al-Bashir but are now fighting over control. U.S. officials estimate the conflict has claimed 150,000 lives. Both sides face accusations of war crimes, and the UN warns of an unparalleled displacement crisis, with over 10 million people—one-fifth of the population—forced from their homes. More than half of Sudan's 49 million citizens are facing acute food insecurity, with conditions worsening daily.

This conflict—potentially the world's deadliest—shows no signs of abating. It has drawn in regional and global actors, each vying for influence in a country rich in gold and strategically located near the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Yet, as wars in Ukraine and Gaza dominate global attention, Sudan's devastating crisis remains largely overlooked, despite its far-reaching consequences.

"We're now 16 months into this conflict, and we don't see an end in sight," says UN humanitarian chief Clementine Nkweta-Salami. "What we see is fighting, hunger, and disease closing in."

Foreign Involvement

Sudan's Red Sea location, near vital trade routes like the Suez Canal, has attracted involvement from countries like Russia and regional powers, accused of fueling the conflict with money and arms.

The geopolitical topography in Sudan is tangled, with alliances and rivalries shaping the conflict. Ukrainian pilots reportedly enjoy luxuries alongside SAF commanders in Port Sudan, Russian troops are also training al-Burhan's forces, according to Sudanese intelligence. Meanwhile, Sudanese generals claim the RSF has recruited "mercenaries" from neighbouring countries; Central African Republic, Chad, and South Sudan.

Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have reported that weapons from countries like China, Iran, Turkiye, Russia, and the UAE are proliferating in Sudan, fueling calls for a broader arms embargo. The SAF is partially funded through gold exports and what's left of its once-vast business empire, bolstered by Russian oil.

Conversely, the RSF is believed to be supported by Hemedti's gold business and arms from the UAE. A UN panel has presented "credible" evidence suggesting Abu Dhabi's involvement, despite the UAE's insistence on its "complete neutrality" and rejection of accusations as "baseless." Analysts argue that the UAE's support for the RSF is rooted in fears that al-Burhan is too close to Islamist ideologies, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, a prominent force during al-Bashir's rule.

Sudan's own resources are at significant risk. The conflict has derailed an IMF-backed reform program and worsened Khartoum's ability to repay creditors, including China. Sudan's economy shrank by 40% last year, according to Jibril Ibrahim, finance minister for al-Burhan-controlled institutions, deepening the country’s financial crisis at a critical time when debt relief negotiations were ongoing.

A Splintered State

Sudan’s long history of military coups—at least 17 since 1956—has led many to question the legitimacy of its current leaders. "We don’t want to see any military uniforms in power," says activist Duaa Tariq from Khartoum, while others liken the choice between leaders to "choosing between cholera and malaria."

There are fears that Sudan could further fracture, as Suliman Arcua “Minni” Minnawi, Darfur’s governor and former rebel leader, anticipates that if Hemedti fails to take control, he might establish a rival government in Darfur. This situation resembles Libya, where rival militias support two competing governments, in Tripoli and Benghazi.

US Special envoy to Sudan, Mike Perriello, warns that Sudan risks becoming a “giant Somalia,” where internal conflict led to anarchy in the 1990s. "The parties currently lack the will to end the fighting and are instead escalating the conflict," he says.

Kholood Khair from Confluence Advisory adds: “Neither side is interested in ending the war until they achieve their goals.”

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Putin warns that U.S. proposal to lift weapons restrictions on Ukraine would place NATO at war with Russia: Vladimir Putin has warned that allowing Kyiv to use longer-range weapons against targets inside Russia would mean NATO is "at war" with Moscow. His comments followed a statement by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who suggested that the White House might soon lift restrictions on Ukraine using long-range Western weapons against key military targets inside Russia. At present, US and UK officials are discussing easing restrictions on Ukraine firing Western weapons into Russian territory—a move Kyiv has been advocating for after more than two years of conflict. "This would significantly alter the nature of the conflict," Putin said on state television. "It would mean NATO countries—the US and European nations—are at war with Russia. If that happens, we will take appropriate actions based on the new threats we face."

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Israel-linked airstrikes in central Syria: Israeli missile strikes in central Syria have killed at least 18 people and injured dozens more, according to Syrian Health Minister Hassan al-Ghabbash. Describing the attack as a "brutal and barbaric aggression," al-Ghabbash reported that nearly 40 individuals were wounded, with most of the victims being civilians. Electricity Minister Mohammad al-Zamel added that the strikes caused "significant" damage to both water and power infrastructure. The attack, which occurred on Sunday night, also sparked a fire near the city of Masyaf in Hama province, state news agency SANA reported. Israel has frequently carried out air raids in Syria throughout the country's 13-year war, often targeting Iran-linked sites. Israeli jets typically launch strikes from Lebanese airspace to avoid Syrian air defences. This latest assault occurs amid heightened regional tensions, with Iranian officials still vowing retaliation for the July assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Despite Iran's threats of "harsh punishment" for Israel, no Iranian response has materialised over 40 days later.

3️⃣ 🇯🇴 The Muslim Brotherhood wins Jordan’s parliamentary elections: Jordan’s Islamist opposition party, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), has emerged as the leading force in the country’s parliamentary elections but fell short of an outright majority, according to official results. The IAF, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, secured 31 out of 138 seats, tripling its presence in the House of Representatives, as announced by the election commission. Jordan has maintained a delicate political balance during Israel’s recent actions in Gaza and the West Bank, continuing its diplomatic ties with Israel while intervening in Iran’s retaliatory missile attack on Israel in April by intercepting missiles over its territory. While the election outcome is unlikely to significantly alter Jordan's policy toward Palestine, it reflects growing dissatisfaction within Jordan's political landscape over the monarchy's handling of the crisis. Despite the IAF’s gains, real power in Jordan remains with the king—who has the authority to appoint governments and dissolve Parliament—though the assembly can force a government to resign through a no-confidence vote. This marks the Islamists' strongest showing since 1989, when they won 22 out of 80 seats in Parliament.

4️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇹🇷 🇱🇾 Libyan central bank fallout threatens Cairo-Ankara rapport: A new alliance between Egypt and Turkey, formed to resolve long-standing Middle Eastern disputes, is facing its first test in Libya’s escalating political crisis over control of the country’s oil wealth. The two countries’ fallout began after Egypt’s 2013 coup, which saw President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi ousted Mohamed Morsi, a key ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After nearly three years of improving relations, Sisi and Erdoğan met in Ankara last week, signing over 30 agreements to boost trade, driven by economic concerns and the Gaza war. However, analysts warn that disagreements over how to resolve Libya’s internal divisions could undermine this cooperation. Libya has been split between eastern and western factions since 2011, with Egypt backing eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar and Turkey supporting the Tripoli-based government. The current crisis was sparked by the dismissal of central bank governor Sadiq al-Kabir, who fled to Turkey, claiming threats to his life. His removal has triggered a standoff, freezing oil revenues and foreign exchange transactions, as eastern Libya demands his return, calling the move unconstitutional. Global banks, under US pressure, have frozen many central bank transactions, while western powers, despite Kabir’s flaws, oppose his removal, viewing him as a stabilizing figure. Without consensus on Libya, the Egypt-Turkey alliance may struggle to endure.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Washington and Beijing engage in high-level military talks aimed at stabilising relations: The United States and China have held high-level commander talks for the first time, aiming to stabilise military ties and avoid misunderstandings, particularly in the South China Sea. The US seeks to reopen regular military communication channels after relations hit a new low following the downing of a suspected Chinese spy balloon last year. Adm. Sam Paparo of the US Indo-Pacific Command held a video call with Gen. Wu Yanan of China’s southern theatre, discussing regional tensions and urging China to reconsider its "escalatory tactics." This meeting follows US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s recent talks in Beijing. US and Chinese troops are also participating in joint military exercises in Brazil, their first collaboration since 2016, after most military engagements were paused following Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit in 2022.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇺🇸 🇪🇬 Washington approves $1.3bn in military aid for Egypt, despite Human Rights concerns: The Biden administration has announced it will provide Egypt with $1.3 billion in military aid, bypassing usual conditions related to human rights improvements. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that this aid would proceed without the standard human rights stipulations. The decision, which prioritises national security and regional peace efforts, supports Egypt's role in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas and its broader contributions to US security objectives. The US State Department emphasised the aid's importance for advancing peace and humanitarian efforts in Gaza. However, human rights organisations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch criticise the decision, arguing that Egypt's government continues to engage in widespread repression of political dissent. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who came to power in a 2013 coup, has faced criticism for his government's human rights record, though military assistance from the US has persisted since then.

🇸🇾 🇺🇳 UN Security Council holds meeting on Syria: Syria remains entrenched in its 14th year of civil war, with fighting persisting on multiple fronts and political efforts stalled. The Syrian Constitutional Committee has been inactive since June 2022, as Russia, an ally of Syria, has opposed Geneva as the venue due to Swiss sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. In a July 22 Council meeting, UN Special Envoy Geir O. Pedersen expressed concerns over the stagnation, noting growing frustration among regional and international actors who view the status quo as "dangerous and unsustainable." He emphasised the need for a comprehensive approach to address the multifaceted issues fueling the conflict. Hostilities in north-east Syria escalated in early August, particularly in Deir-ez-Zor governorate, where pro-government forces clashed with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). While no territorial shifts occurred, infrastructure was targeted, heightening risks for civilians. Regional tensions have also surged due to the Israel-Hamas war, leading to increased violence in Syria. US forces have faced attacks from Iran-linked militias, prompting the US to bolster its military presence in the region to defend its interests and protect Israel.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 Beijing and Moscow to conduct joint naval, air drills: China announced on Monday that Russia will take part in a major military exercise later this month in the Pacific Ocean. The North-Joint 2024 exercise will see Russian naval and air forces join their Chinese counterparts in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk. China’s Ministry of National Defense stated that the drill aims to strengthen strategic cooperation between the two nations' militaries and improve their ability to respond to security threats. The exercise will also include a fifth joint maritime patrol by the Russian and Chinese navies. Additionally, China will participate in the Ocean-2024 strategic exercise, organised by Moscow. These joint exercises highlight the growing strategic partnership between China and Russia and are seen by analysts as a response to the increasing US military presence in the region.