Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 1M displaced in Haiti

📰 1M displaced in Haiti

and Gaza ceasefire begins

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 19, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, local groups voice strong criticism of the U.S.’s Lobito Corridor project, while the U.S., UK, and Israel launch a new wave of deadly strikes in Yemen. In Europe, Keir Starmer unveils plans for a 100-year partnership with Ukraine.

In the Middle East, significant developments include Sudanese armed forces reclaiming the critical city of Wad Madani and the implementation of a ceasefire in Gaza.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇶🇦 Gaza ceasefire goes into effect: The long-awaited ceasefire has officially begun. According to a statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office, the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire is set to begin at 11:15 local time (09:15 GMT). The agreement unfolds in three stages, with the initial phase involving the release of 33 prisoners over six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli detention centres, many of whom are children.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 Sudan armed forces retake city of Wad Madani: The Sudanese armed forces (SAF) and allied groups have reclaimed control of Wad Madani in Gezira state, expelling the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after more than a year. The army announced its entry into the strategic city, pledging to eliminate remaining RSF resistance, and released footage showing soldiers in Wad Madani. RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, acknowledged the setback but accused the army of relying on Iranian drones and Tigrayan fighters. Wad Madani’s location at critical supply route junctions and its proximity to Khartoum underscores its importance in the ongoing conflict, which has displaced millions and led to famine in parts of Sudan since fighting erupted in April 2023.

3️⃣ 🇸🇪 🇪🇪 🇫🇮 Sweden deploys battleships to Baltic Sea in first ever armed deployment in its immediate vicinity: Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson declared that Sweden is “neither at war nor at peace” as he announced the deployment of armed forces to the Baltic Sea to bolster surveillance amid suspected sabotage of undersea cables. Speaking at the Folk och Försvars conference in Sälen, he warned of hybrid threats and “proxy wars” targeting Sweden and its neighbours. Sweden will send an ASC 890 reconnaissance aircraft and three warships to support NATO’s efforts to monitor critical infrastructure and Russia’s “shadow fleet.” Highlighting recent incidents, including cable damage between Finland and Estonia, Kristersson stated that NATO is assisting with investigations and emphasized that safeguarding peace requires readiness for war.

4️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 Over 1 million people displaced in Haiti, says UN: Escalating gang violence in Haiti has led to a threefold increase in displacement within a year, the UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported, urging immediate humanitarian aid to save lives. IOM data shows over one million people displaced as of January 2024, compared to 315,000 in December 2023, with many experiencing repeated displacement. Most have fled Port-au-Prince, where gang activity has devastated healthcare and worsened food insecurity. The violence has also spread to provinces like Artibonite, where displacement tripled in 2024, reaching over 84,000, straining host communities and resources.

5️⃣ 🇯🇵 🇧🇪 Japan strengthens NATO ties amid East Asia’s rising tensions: Japan has officially launched an independent mission to NATO, strengthening its security cooperation with the alliance amid mounting challenges from Russia, China, and North Korea. Previously managed by its embassy in Belgium, the new mission is led by Osamu Izawa, reflecting Japan’s growing engagement with NATO. High-level talks in Tokyo focused on security concerns in East Asia and Europe, emphasizing NATO’s expanding interest in the Indo-Pacific region. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and closer Moscow-Beijing ties, NATO has enhanced partnerships with Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has suggested a NATO-like framework for Asia, although details remain unclear. Meanwhile, China has criticized NATO’s increasing presence in the region, fearing it could lead to a U.S.-led military alliance in Asia.

Major Story

🇸🇻 🇿🇼 CRYPTOCURRENCY’S GLOBAL IMPACT: GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS AND STRATEGIC CHALLENGES

Cryptocurrency has transformed from a niche experiment into a global financial powerhouse, influencing geopolitics and international finance. Initially championed for its decentralization and independence from state control, crypto now facilitates cross-border transactions and circumvents traditional financial systems. By 2024, the crypto market exceeded $4 trillion, underscoring its strategic importance.

Cryptocurrencies and Sanctions Evasion

The decentralized nature of cryptocurrency undermines sanctions enforcement, enabling states like Russia, Iran, and North Korea to evade restrictions. Russia, heavily sanctioned post-2022, legalized crypto mining and utilized digital currencies for cross-border payments. Exchanges like Garantex facilitated transactions tied to sanctioned entities, paralleling historical banking secrecy practices but on a decentralized scale.

State Adoption and Strategic Use

Governments leverage crypto for statecraft, with China pioneering its digital yuan to challenge U.S. dollar dominance. Emerging economies like El Salvador and Zimbabwe have adopted crypto for economic stability and growth. However, state-led crypto initiatives risk regulatory fragmentation and authoritarian misuse.

Challenges and Future Trends

The rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) will intensify competition with decentralized assets, while crypto adoption grows among states seeking to bypass dollar reliance. However, weak regulation enables illicit activities, including sanctions evasion and cybercrime. As crypto reshapes geopolitics, its dual potential as a tool for innovation and exploitation persists.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇩 🇿🇲 🇦🇴 Local groups criticise the U.S.’ Lobito Corridor project: The 1,300km Lobito Corridor railway, stretching from Angola’s Port of Lobito to Zambia and the DRC, connects resource-rich provinces home to vast reserves of cobalt and copper. While Congolese President Tshisekedi touts the project’s potential to create 30,000 jobs and reduce poverty, many locals express skepticism. Critics, like economic analyst Dady Saleh, view it as a pharaonic scheme enabling foreign exploitation of DRC’s resources, leaving Congolese communities with minimal benefits. Civil society groups demand greater local investment, including infrastructure, schools, and hospitals, to ensure the project addresses community needs. Others, like copper handler Souverain Kabika, fear the railway could displace existing jobs by reducing truck transport. As the DRC negotiates its role in this transcontinental project, concerns over equity and long-term impact remain central.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 Starmer announces 100-year partnership with Ukraine: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a century-long partnership with Ukraine during his first visit to Kyiv, pledging unwavering support beyond the war toward a "free and thriving" future. The agreement includes £3 billion in annual aid, expanded military training, air defence systems, and artillery. Speaking alongside President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Starmer condemned Russia's ongoing aggression, underscored by a Russian drone attack during their talks, which damaged property but caused no casualties. Starmer also emphasized Ukraine’s path to NATO membership, though challenges remain, particularly with opposition from the US, Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary. While acknowledging Ukraine’s precarious position ahead of potential negotiations, Starmer affirmed the UK’s commitment to Ukraine's defence, even amid concerns over a possible shift in US policy under Donald Trump’s impending presidency.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇾🇪 U.S, UK, Israel administer new wave of deadly attacks in Yemen: On Friday, Israel, the U.S., and Britain launched their first coordinated airstrikes on Ansarullah targets in Yemen, according to reports. Al-Masirah TV, a Houthi-affiliated channel, confirmed multiple strikes near Sanaa’s Al-Sabeen Square during a pro-Palestine rally. Additional attacks hit the port city of Al-Hudaydah and the Haziz Central Power Station in Sanaa, causing damage and injuring a worker. The Israeli military confirmed its involvement, targeting Houthi military infrastructure, including sites in the Al-Hudaydah and Ras Isa ports. The strikes followed Houthi missile and drone attacks on the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman and Israeli targets in retaliation for Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza.